Syrian Watch

[bayonetbrant]

Redux of the Libya scenario is unlikely

http://grognews.blogspot.com/2012/02/redux-of-libya-in-syria-dont-bet-on-it.html

[LongBlade]

Redux of the Libya scenario is unlikely

http://grognews.blogspot.com/2012/02/redux-of-libya-in-syria-dont-bet-on-it.html

Good stuff. Pushing Russian influence out of the region would be a win IMHO, but inevitably there would be blowback. However, given the recent propensity for Russia to try and relive its USSR glory days, I can't see how they can cause too much more trouble for us, at least diplomatically. They're hardly disposed to play nice now. It's not like they'll get any friendlier if we let them keep Syria.

[MIGMaster]

Man, the heat is really being cranked-up ! I was listening to the BBC yesterday and people are going crazy asking why there has been no intervention. It is also a very common theme in some of the Canadian media. Personally, I just can't see it happening.....

[LongBlade]

I don't foresee American tanks rolling into Damascus, either.

I do think we'll be happy to give the rebels guns and ammo. The question is whether we'll park an aircraft carrier in the Med and help from that perspective.

I'm not well acquainted with Syrian politics, but in almost every case in the Mid-East the only organized opposition has been radicals and the solution appears to be worse than the problem. I'd love to knock off a pro-Iranian regime like Syria, but if all we get is something worse? I dunno. I'd like to hear more about alternative solutions before I start banging the drums of war.

[Centurion40]

Man, the heat is really being cranked-up ! I was listening to the BBC yesterday and people are going crazy asking why there has been no intervention. It is also a very common theme in some of the Canadian media. Personally, I just can't see it happening.....

Syria is too complicated for an intervention.  Syria borders Turkey (NATO member), Lebanon (Hezbollah), Israel, Jordan, and Iraq (Kurdistan).

[LongBlade]

That tells me it would require an Iraq-like intervention.

Those clean lines that make up the borders are holdovers from a century ago. Part of me thinks it might be better to let that hold region fall apart and rework the borders the old fashioned way. But I don't think that kind of instability is what we need right now.

It is, as they say, a sticky wicket.

[MIGMaster]

Part of me thinks it might be better to let that hold region fall apart and rework the borders the old fashioned way. But I don't think that kind of instability is what we need right now.

You know, I don't have a lot of experience with wickets, be they stick or not, but I do atotally agree with both of the above points....

[Gusington]

As I age I watch the news less and less because it depresses me but last night I paid particular attention to what is happening in Syria. I saw a few clips that mentioned Syria's army being 'legit' and a 'true threat' to any force (NATO, US, Russia) that would try to intervene there. Do you all think this is true? The reports mentioned that Syria has 300,000+ troops, 5500 tanks, modern missile tech, chemical and biological weapons, etc. How dangerous are there armed forces? Are they more dangerous on paper until we start to send drones over there and rip them to shreds?

[Centurion40]

As I age I watch the news less and less because it depresses me but last night I paid particular attention to what is happening in Syria. I saw a few clips that mentioned Syria's army being 'legit' and a 'true threat' to any force (NATO, US, Russia) that would try to intervene there. Do you all think this is true? The reports mentioned that Syria has 300,000+ troops, 5500 tanks, modern missile tech, chemical and biological weapons, etc. How dangerous are there armed forces? Are they more dangerous on paper until we start to send drones over there and rip them to shreds?

If the reports are true, part of the Syrian is fracturing.  As in Libya, reports are saying that regular army soldiers are defecting to the rebels.  Obviously, a fractured army is not as effective as a solid army.

[MIGMaster]

I don't think their performance would be as impressive as the numbers sound. How many times have the Israeli's handed them their ass in a pickle jar ! I also tend to think if they were that good they wouldn't be firing on their own people...

[LongBlade]

As I understand it, Syria has always been fractured. Elements were pulling against the US and Israel. Assad, after all, wasn't supposed to even rule - he was (IIRC) an eye doctor in the UK until his brother bit the dust. He seems to have been a fast learner, but I don't think crushing rebellions was his first love.

I suppose the question as to whether we want Syria to blow up or not is moot. It's doing it. The question is how to best shape the outcome so that it favors us. To that end parking a carrier off the coast is probably our best course of action.

[Gusington]

It angers me that Russia and China have blocked any kind of action against Syria as they use heavy artillery on their own cities. But on the flip side maybe I shouldn't care so much since, as a jew, most over there wouldn't care if my family got blown to bits.

And thus a great example of why I watch less news.

[bayonetbrant]

It angers me that Russia and China have blocked any kind of action against Syria as they use heavy artillery on their own cities.

I know right, how could anyone not oppose the use of heavy artillery against their own citizens?!

[Gusington]

^No fair you're getting mixing Muslims in! Oh wait.

[LongBlade]

Fox is reporting some Syrian officials are now considering bailing out.

Obama administration officials suggested Friday that Syrian elites are starting to prepare exit plans as violence in the country escalates.

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland would not go into detail when asked about the movement of elite Syrians, including those considered to be backers of President Bashar Assad. However, she said, "At this point, let me just assert that we are beginning to see this trend accelerate."

source: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02/10/syrian-elites-looking-for-way-out-officials-say/