Leaked Details on Israeli Strike?

[LongBlade]

Drones with Bacon. Im sold.

I agree.

I also think all the opposition by retired officers and such is just that much smoke and mirrors by the Israelis.

Lastly, I have a date. The new moon in Sept is about the sixteenth. Be there or be square.

[pawelj]

Drones with Bacon. Im sold.

I also think all the opposition by retired officers and such is just that much smoke and mirrors by the Israelis.

I don't think it is smoke and mirrors, but rather people with pretty current knowledge speaking without the constrains of office about their concerns. I do not like Iranian regime, and do not have any ethical, moral or legal concerns about going after them, but without actual Iranian nuclear weapons a limited attack on their facilities may cause more problems IN THE LONG RUN, then it solves. If and when Iran develops a nuke, that is the time to go all out to destroy their regime, not just few facilities, and with very little opposition to military action internationally. It won't be too late, as having a nuke does not mean being able to use it.
Let Mullahs put their heads in the noose and kick the stool from under them, rather then just knock them about and burn the gallows under construction. They can rebuild the gallows, but not when they are swinging from it.
In the meantime sanction, diplomacy, covert operation and support for the opposition aimed at regime change are the best options.
Helping to overthrow Assad in Syria would also help towards that goal.

I do not think there will be an attack this year, but if Israel goes for it they may loose more then they gain.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Bacon-bit cluster bombs. Would that count as a terror weapon?  :o

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

But that case may be tougher to make in the face of derision from men he once trusted to fend off immediate threats like suicide bombers, guerrilla rockets and armed infiltrators."They genuinely disagree and are trying to signal the Israeli public, knowing that they retain credibility," said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East adviser to U.S. President Barack Obama, in reference to Diskin and Mossad ex-spymaster Meir Dagan, another detractor of Netanyahu and Barak."They are raising the costs domestically to the Netanyahu government of acting."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/30/us-iran-nuclear-israel-idUSBRE83T0RV20120430


My take is they dont want to take the fallout, they want to push the US to do something first.


If the US goes to act it is not Iran that is the problem it is Russia and China. From their perspective they fear increasing western influence so they will back the freaks Iran and NK. Russia has already stepped in to back Syria which is really about blocking the west. My guess for a worst case scenario is if the US Navy launches an attack a sub south of the fleet unloads everything at the capital ships. Then the sub is hunted down as a mad dog with a brain tumored captain. Deniability that stops western advance in the middle east. It stops 'encirclement' from their perspective.


If Russia feels really threatened by the regime changes in that region taking out a fleet would be their re-balancing. The war games have to factor in the moves of the 3 superpowers.

[LongBlade]

Latest news.

I think they'll do it in September, but they might hold until October.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is calling early elections so that he and his government will be free to deal with Iran's nuclear program this September-October, one of Israel's best-informed political commentators said on Friday night.

Source: http://www.timesofisrael.com/tv-report-netanyahu-holding-elections-so-he-is-free-to-deal-with-iran-in-september-october/

[meadbelly]

I wonder how willing obama might be to wag the dog's tail in sept/october if the election is not going his way.

[LongBlade]

I wonder how willing obama might be to wag the dog's tail in sept/october if the election is not going his way.

It's not in his interest to see Israel pound on Iran - the Iranians will attempt to close the Straight of Hormuz, spiking the price of gas.

IMHO this is exactly why Israel will strike. Obama has done very little to smooth the road for Israel; they're about to return the favor.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

It sounds a bit far fetched to me to say Israel will go to war to influence a US election.

[Martok]

It sounds a bit far fetched to me to say Israel will go to war to influence a US election.

That won't be the main reason the Israelis will hit Iran, no...but will be a nice side bonus for them. 

[LongBlade]

It sounds a bit far fetched to me to say Israel will go to war to influence a US election.

That won't be the main reason the Israelis will hit Iran, no...but will be a nice side bonus for them.

+1

[Windigo]

It sounds a bit far fetched to me to say Israel will go to war to influence a US election.

[LongBlade]

It sounds a bit far fetched to me to say Israel will go to war to influence a US election.

You missed my point: The Israelis are going anyway. The timing is just icing on the cake.

[Martok]

You missed my point: The Israelis are going anyway. The timing is just icing on the cake.

Exactly.  They might as well try to kill as many birds with one stone as possible. 

[meadbelly]

My purely hypothetical -- and admittedly not particularly well-thought out -- tail wagging has the US conducting strikes not the israelis. It's a considerable stretch to even get to a point where it's plausible, but I would have said the same thing before obama starting really fucking with the notion that he's no less willing to impose a far left ideology than some portions of the right wing are willing to impose a far right ideology.

So here are the considerable stretches:

1) Obama is losing the election. Not sure if losing big or losing small but still obviously losing.

2) He's losing primarily because the economy is in decline. Maybe not recession but moving in that direction. Like assuming the last couple of months are the beginning of a decline that steepens and deepens into Aug/Sept/Oct.

3) Obama begins a calculus that suggests he'll gain more independents than lose an anti-war base in an armed conflict with iran. Closing the Hormuz Straits possibly plays into this, especially if the closure by the iranians can be viewed as an escalation of hostilities. US operations consist almost exclusively of an air campaign, with standoff naval actions to clear the Straits and possible small unit marine/special forces activities.


For the proponents of an independent israeli strike, I'm curious what you think regarding some of the conventional analysis. In particular, do you agree that the israelis lack the infrastructure for a sustained bombing campaign through the likely air corridors? Do you agree that more than one strike would be necessary to have a significant impact on the iranian program? Alternatively, do you think israeli would risk a military strike for primarily pr value at home (in other words, they strike once not to impact the program primarily.)

If the israelis are as po'd at the us as they may very well be, why wouldn't they risk over flight of Iraq. Or is the northern route plausible more for a surprise factor?

If the israelis do strike in sept/oct, I'm not sure how much that effects the us election adversely for obama. It potentially solidifies some of the independents who might decide a "stay the course" mentality from my hypothetical above. I don't think it persuades many hawks to finally abandon obama -- this is not an area he's drawn a lot of strength from. Romney would have an interest time trying to pitch the idea he could have prevented it from happening.

There will of course be a lot of finger pointing and posturing from either side, but that's nothing new. And I'm not sure how it breaks clearly for Romney in that independent vote.

[pawelj]

It sounds a bit far fetched to me to say Israel will go to war to influence a US election.

You missed my point: The Israelis are going anyway. The timing is just icing on the cake.

The petrol prices are falling, the economy is improving (slowly), Iran does not yet have a nuke. In those circumstances Israeli strike, which forces petrol prices back up may have an effect of making Israel less popular in the US, rather then Obama. Israel should be mindful not to bite the hand that feeds it.