Just heard it from CNN. I wonder how things will shape up on the international front now, esp. in reference to things such as Syria and intervention. The Eurozone debt crisis issue aught to get a bit more complicated also.
WTF!!?!?!?!
That was an incredibly close margin. People didn't care too much for Sarkozy, but I still expected him to win. Woah... they backed the socialist candidate (not shocking for France). Not sure what long term this will mean.
At the very least Le Pin's daughter didn't win. Her nationalist party's rhetoric is a bit scary, to say the least.
Indeed, should be interesting. The Greek fragmented election should be even more disruptive in the short term also.
Stock markets here should be interesting tomorrow.
A couple of BBC comments on M. Hollande:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15311645
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17930695
Quote from: son_of_montfort on May 06, 2012, 01:59:04 PM
Not sure what long term this will mean.
I know nothing about the newly elected president, but I seriously doubt it means cutbacks in spending, which means France will be well on track to go the way of Greece.
He's the Left-wing candidate who is far less bullish than Sarkozy and far less experienced in diplomacy. Smuck may have made an interesting assertion on my FB page - this could mean France is heading to abandon the Euro, like England. Marine Le Pen, the Nationalist candidate, was certainly getting the populace stirred up in that direction and Hollande will certainly have to deal with the large part of the population pushing for this.
The Euro is probably doomed. Outlying economies like Greece and Portugal don't really have the same economic structure as Germany. I can't see it lasting too much longer.
It's going to be hard to quit Euros without creating a panic. A country has to print money and then have a way to get it into circulation all while still using Euros. You can't exactly do that in secret. It would take years to transition over, just as it did the first time.
I very much doubt that Hollande or his party have any desire at all to quit the Euro. As is the BBC article, Hollande was closely tied in his ealier years to the setting up of the EU and is much wedded to it. Barring some minority parties , the great majority of Eurozone politicians are heavily supportive of the Euro. There is though the question of what is the best way to fix the mess...shrink the deficit by drastically cutting expenditure, or try and grow out of it. Doesn't mean the end aim vis a vis the Euro is necessarily different.
Doesn't mean it cannot fail of course, and it wouldn't surprise me wholly if Greece crashes out.
Regarding parts of the Eurozone being very different to others; surely very true of certain states in the U.S.? As the Deutsche Bank chief economist said in a presentation I was at a year ago, look at Italy - it ranges from the super industrialised North (a real powerhouse) to the completely backward areas in the far South. There was never a suggestion Italy needed two versions of the Lire. Stresses and strains between regions/states/countries are a fact of life.
Quote from: Hartford688 on May 08, 2012, 12:43:59 AM
Regarding parts of the Eurozone being very different to others; surely very true of certain states in the U.S.? As the Deutsche Bank chief economist said in a presentation I was at a year ago, look at Italy - it ranges from the super industrialised North (a real powerhouse) to the completely backward areas in the far South. There was never a suggestion Italy needed two versions of the Lire. Stresses and strains between regions/states/countries are a fact of life.
It's much worse than in the US because these nations have had separate currencies for centuries. Yes, Italy effectively has two economies in itself.
The simplest way to explain is to draw a line between Bonn and Paris (realizing Bonn is no longer the German capital but is still more or less the other point of the industrialized corridor). Draw concentric ovals around those two points - the further you travel from them the poorer the people. N.B. Spain, Portugal, Italy, Southern Italy, and Greece all sit well outside of that line. It has been that way for a long time, and everyone has known it.
Listen carefully the the economists who comment on the European situation - they don't come on the news often. They will tell you (and I agree) that the trouble in Greece and Spain is spreading and the water is lapping at France's door. It is a debt-fueled problem similar to the US, but we're about five years behind Greece.
There are only two real choices: cut spending or go broke. You can color different shades of grey around those choices, but they still are only two courses of action. Even Greece is now balking on its promise to cut back. All we need to do is sit back and watch to learn our future.
I was reading up on Hollande because I also knew nothing about him and he wants to increase spending through construction of housing, hiring teachers, police officers and similar programs. So he is definitely not thinking 'austerity.'
Quote from: Gusington on May 08, 2012, 09:45:48 AM
I was reading up on Hollande because I also knew nothing about him and he wants to increase spending through construction of housing, hiring teachers, police officers and similar programs. So he is definitely not thinking 'austerity.'
Is he planning on borrowing the money or raising taxes?
^You'll have to consult Breezy's Magic 8-Ball for that one.
It keeps telling me to mind my own gd business!!
^It's working, then :)
Quote from: Gusington on May 08, 2012, 10:02:07 AM
^You'll have to consult Breezy's Magic 8-Ball for that one.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1081.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fj349%2Flongblade%2F20100428_8ball_250x375.jpg&hash=53f076908eba2f1d9a6f8232a7ca1e5ccac647e5)
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 08, 2012, 09:47:44 AM
Quote from: Gusington on May 08, 2012, 09:45:48 AM
I was reading up on Hollande because I also knew nothing about him and he wants to increase spending through construction of housing, hiring teachers, police officers and similar programs. So he is definitely not thinking 'austerity.'
Is he planning on borrowing the money or raising taxes?
The answer is probably: "yes." :)
Do note, Sarkozy hit French academia hard, cutting a lot of programs that made researching and publishing in France (particularly if you were French) much easier (Britain has similar programs). Before the cuts, French academia, particularly in the social sciences, was one of the best in the world - major publication projects, historical document preservation and examination, etc. So Hollande is probably not planning on "adding" anything, but rather returning things to the Ante-Sarkozy levels. I think Sarkozy also cut housing and police, but I don't remember.
Not that you all care about French academic funding. Just the part of French fiscal structure I know about.
Thanks, SoM. That helps us understand the context of spending changes - at least with regard to those programs.
Quote from: LongBlade on May 08, 2012, 12:01:30 PM
Thanks, SoM. That helps us understand the context of spending changes - at least with regard to those programs.
Sarkozy was as fiscally conservative as France tends to get. That sat well with ~49% of the population, but clearly not with 51%. The election was close, so Hollande doesn't exactly have a mandate or anything. On the other hand, the French president has a LOT more power than the US one.
I figured (not that pay attention to French politics) that Sarkozy was more the type to increase the size of the police.
Quote from: son_of_montfort on May 08, 2012, 12:25:31 PM
That sat well with ~49% of the population, but clearly not with 51%. The election was close, so Hollande doesn't exactly have a mandate or anything.
Doesn't being elected, even at 51%, mean he has a mandate?
Quote from: Hartford688 on May 08, 2012, 01:35:18 PM
Quote from: son_of_montfort on May 08, 2012, 12:25:31 PM
That sat well with ~49% of the population, but clearly not with 51%. The election was close, so Hollande doesn't exactly have a mandate or anything.
Doesn't being elected, even at 51%, mean he has a mandate?
"Mandate" comes form Chinese emperors who supposedly had the backing of heaven. Today the word implies not just a slight majority, but an overwhelming backing. If he'd received 70% of the vote he'd have a mandate.
Or, in American elections, if a President is elected and also sweeps into power with large majorities in both houses it's called a Mandate. Obama more or less had one in 08, but by the 2010 elections had clearly lost it.
OK, over here in UK it means elected.
2 the authority to carry out a policy, regarded as given by the electorate to a party or candidate that wins an election
http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/mandate?view=uk
Comes from Latin, not China, mind you.
I don't doubt the word's Latin origins, but for some context of my comment...
QuoteThe Mandate of Heaven is a well-accepted and popular idea among the people of China, as it argues for the removal of incompetent or despotic rulers, and provided an incentive for rulers to rule well and justly. The concept is often invoked by philosophers and scholars in ancient China as a way to curtail the abuse of power by the ruler, in a system that otherwise offered no other check to this power. The Mandate of Heaven had no time limitations, instead depending on the just and able performance of the ruler. In the past, times of poverty and natural disasters were taken as signs that heaven considered the incumbent ruler unjust and thus in need of replacement.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_of_Heaven
Quote from: LongBlade on May 08, 2012, 02:48:53 PM
I don't doubt the word's Latin origins, but for some context of my comment...
QuoteThe Mandate of Heaven is a well-accepted and popular idea among the people of China, as it argues for the removal of incompetent or despotic rulers, and provided an incentive for rulers to rule well and justly. The concept is often invoked by philosophers and scholars in ancient China as a way to curtail the abuse of power by the ruler, in a system that otherwise offered no other check to this power. The Mandate of Heaven had no time limitations, instead depending on the just and able performance of the ruler. In the past, times of poverty and natural disasters were taken as signs that heaven considered the incumbent ruler unjust and thus in need of replacement.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_of_Heaven
Indeed. And you mean by it re Hollande? I guess the best fit is that the poor condition of the French economy signified the removal of the mandate from Sarkozy..."times of poverty and [financial] disaster"...
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 08, 2012, 12:27:56 PM
I figured (not that pay attention to French politics) that Sarkozy was more the type to increase the size of the police.
He probably did... but paid them less. Apparently he was that type of guy. ;)
Hartford, I was meaning mandate from the US Political Science 101 perspective (i.e. not a very exact definition). LB hit what I meant. I'm always shocked at the voter turnout numbers and the close margins of victory in France. Wish we had that more in the US.
Quote from: son_of_montfort on May 08, 2012, 11:38:10 PM
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 08, 2012, 12:27:56 PM
I figured (not that pay attention to French politics) that Sarkozy was more the type to increase the size of the police.
He probably did... but paid them less. Apparently he was that type of guy. ;)
Hartford, I was meaning mandate from the US Political Science 101 perspective (i.e. not a very exact definition). LB hit what I meant. I'm always shocked at the voter turnout numbers and the close margins of victory in France. Wish we had that more in the US.
Sorry, I was being a pedantic ass. Had just heard on TV a few minutes earlier about some part of the Amazon forest being decimated, 80-90% destroyed...brought the tedious nitpicker roaring out.
Quote from: Hartford688 on May 09, 2012, 12:45:13 AM
Quote from: son_of_montfort on May 08, 2012, 11:38:10 PM
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 08, 2012, 12:27:56 PM
I figured (not that pay attention to French politics) that Sarkozy was more the type to increase the size of the police.
He probably did... but paid them less. Apparently he was that type of guy. ;)
Hartford, I was meaning mandate from the US Political Science 101 perspective (i.e. not a very exact definition). LB hit what I meant. I'm always shocked at the voter turnout numbers and the close margins of victory in France. Wish we had that more in the US.
Sorry, I was being a pedantic ass. Had just heard on TV a few minutes earlier about some part of the Amazon forest being decimated, 80-90% destroyed...brought the tedious nitpicker roaring out.
As opposed to cutting down every tenth tree? It's one of my pet peeves as well but apparently even some dictionaries offer both definitions now. :(
The election results in France and Greece mean that holidays on the continent are going to be cheaper, as Euro's value depreciates. I'm expecting £1 = E1.35 by August. Anyone holding Euros dump em ASAP.
Quote from: pawelj on May 11, 2012, 04:36:25 AM
The election results in France and Greece mean that holidays on the continent are going to be cheaper, as Euro's value depreciates. I'm expecting £1 = E1.35 by August. Anyone holding Euros dump em ASAP.
Or a Greek exit could even make it appreciate...get rid of dead weight...who knows...what an exciting year. Again.