Sarkozy concedes French presidential election...

[Staggerwing]

Just heard it from CNN. I wonder how things will shape up on the international front now, esp. in reference to things such as Syria and intervention. The Eurozone debt crisis issue aught to get a bit more complicated also.

[son_of_montfort]

WTF!!?!?!?!

That was an incredibly close margin. People didn't care too much for Sarkozy, but I still expected him to win. Woah... they backed the socialist candidate (not shocking for France). Not sure what long term this will mean.

At the very least Le Pin's daughter didn't win. Her nationalist party's rhetoric is a bit scary, to say the least.

[Hartford688]

Indeed, should be interesting. The Greek fragmented election should be even more disruptive in the short term also.

Stock markets here should be interesting tomorrow.

A couple of BBC comments on M. Hollande:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15311645

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17930695

[LongBlade]

Not sure what long term this will mean.

I know nothing about the newly elected president, but I seriously doubt it means cutbacks in spending, which means France will be well on track to go the way of Greece.

[son_of_montfort]

He's the Left-wing candidate who is far less bullish than Sarkozy and far less experienced in diplomacy. Smuck may have made an interesting assertion on my FB page - this could mean France is heading to abandon the Euro, like England. Marine Le Pen, the Nationalist candidate, was certainly getting the populace stirred up in that direction and Hollande will certainly have to deal with the large part of the population pushing for this.

[LongBlade]

The Euro is probably doomed. Outlying economies like Greece and Portugal don't really have the same economic structure as Germany. I can't see it lasting too much longer.

[Staggerwing]

It's going to be hard to quit Euros without creating a panic. A country has to print money and then have a way to get it into circulation all while still using Euros. You can't exactly do that in secret. It would take years to transition over, just as it did the first time.

[Hartford688]

I very much doubt that Hollande or his party have any desire at all to quit the Euro. As is the BBC article, Hollande was closely tied in his ealier years to the setting up of the EU and is much wedded to it. Barring some minority parties , the great majority of Eurozone politicians are heavily supportive of the Euro. There is though the question of what is the best way to fix the mess...shrink the deficit by drastically cutting expenditure, or try and grow out of it. Doesn't mean the end aim vis a vis the Euro is necessarily different.

Doesn't mean it cannot fail of course, and it wouldn't surprise me wholly if Greece crashes out.

Regarding parts of the Eurozone being very different to others; surely very true of certain states in the U.S.? As the Deutsche Bank chief economist said in a presentation I was at a year ago, look at Italy - it ranges from the super industrialised North (a real powerhouse) to the completely backward areas in the far South. There was never a suggestion Italy needed two versions of the Lire.  Stresses and strains between regions/states/countries are a fact of life.

[LongBlade]

Regarding parts of the Eurozone being very different to others; surely very true of certain states in the U.S.? As the Deutsche Bank chief economist said in a presentation I was at a year ago, look at Italy - it ranges from the super industrialised North (a real powerhouse) to the completely backward areas in the far South. There was never a suggestion Italy needed two versions of the Lire.  Stresses and strains between regions/states/countries are a fact of life.

It's much worse than in the US because these nations have had separate currencies for centuries. Yes, Italy effectively has two economies in itself.

The simplest way to explain is to draw a line between Bonn and Paris (realizing Bonn is no longer the German capital but is still more or less the other point of the industrialized corridor). Draw concentric ovals around those two points - the further you travel from them the poorer the people. N.B. Spain, Portugal, Italy, Southern Italy, and Greece all sit well outside of that line. It has been that way for a long time, and everyone has known it.

Listen carefully the the economists who comment on the European situation - they don't come on the news often. They will tell you (and I agree) that the trouble in Greece and Spain is spreading and the water is lapping at France's door. It is a debt-fueled problem similar to the US, but we're about five years behind Greece.

There are only two real choices: cut spending or go broke. You can color different shades of grey around those choices, but they still are only two courses of action. Even Greece is now balking on its promise to cut back. All we need to do is sit back and watch to learn our future.

[Gusington]

I was reading up on Hollande because I also knew nothing about him and he wants to increase spending through construction of housing, hiring teachers, police officers and similar programs. So he is definitely not thinking 'austerity.'

[Centurion40]

I was reading up on Hollande because I also knew nothing about him and he wants to increase spending through construction of housing, hiring teachers, police officers and similar programs. So he is definitely not thinking 'austerity.'

Is he planning on borrowing the money or raising taxes?

[Gusington]

^You'll have to consult Breezy's Magic 8-Ball for that one.

[Centurion40]

It keeps telling me to mind my own gd business!!

[Gusington]

^It's working, then :)

[LongBlade]

^You'll have to consult Breezy's Magic 8-Ball for that one.