Good article in the Economist:
http://www.economist.com/node/21555916
I personally think the EU is headed for some place in between a remade superstate and a collapse...a few countries will be shed (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, maybe Italy) and the nations that are left will soldier on.
This is the closest in my lifetime that Europe is to reverting to the way it was before my lifetime.
Break-up is inevitable. It may go through a "super-state" phase, but break-up will happen. It will happen to the USA and it will happen Canada. Although it may take a couple of hundred of years yet.
And to think not that long ago everyone in the West was saying that 'union' was inevitable. Another good article from the Financial Times:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37aaf234-a32f-11e1-8f34-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1voaIZgyJ
With a good German quote: 'Better an end with horror than a horror without end.'
That is one of the most German phrases I have ever read.
Probably sounds cool in German too.
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 24, 2012, 02:08:19 PM
Probably sounds cool in German too.
Fraulin vonSchlippyderSchnitzel said it best.... OMG OMG OMG!!!
^Is that the sound of a German panicking?
Greece could sell one of it's islands to Germany for all it's debt. That would keep the EU together. Otherwise it is probably going to be Greece, Spain, Ireland, maybe Portugal, maybe Italy out.
There's a commentary at Strategypage.com on Greece.
According to that, Greece set this whole thing up back in the 2001. To join the Eurozone, they claimed to have no more than 1.5 percent deficit of the gross domestic product.
A former finance minister revealed it was actually 8.5.
http://www.strategypage.com/on_point/2012052223245.aspx
^The plot thickens...
When 2 sides are convinced they are being robbed, war is inevitable.
these days wars between civilized nations is economic.... Greece will crater on the devaluation
Quote from: Windigo on May 24, 2012, 10:39:40 PM
these days wars between civilized nations is economic.... Greece will crater on the devaluation
Every age probably thought it was the most civilized... Eva. Until it all went to shit.
Here's hoping it doesn't.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 24, 2012, 11:10:58 PM
Quote from: Windigo on May 24, 2012, 10:39:40 PM
these days wars between civilized nations is economic.... Greece will crater on the devaluation
Every age probably thought it was the most civilized... Eva. Until it all went to shit.
Here's hoping it doesn't.
QFT
I don't see a shooting war because of Greece.
But nations have gone to war over less.
That would be a great Larry Bond novel. Germany invades Greece [again] to get what's owed.
There's probably a 1% chance of that really happening but it would make good reading.
I get the strong vibe that Germany is quietly seething at the southern European Mediterranean countries.
Quote from: Gusington on May 25, 2012, 09:34:19 AM
I get the strong vibe that Germany is quietly seething at the southern European Mediterranean countries.
I'm not sure what the overall mood in Germany is.
Their largest state just had an election and the Socialists made shocking gains. Those who follow the politics say this could be very bad news for the Conservatives at the national level.
Which means that even Germany, the fiscally sane nation of the EU, could be about to drink the kool aide and go on a spending spree.
My brain struggles to understand why, in a moment of clearly obvious choice, Germany would decide to shoot itself in the foot. But there ya go.
Pause and think about this.
The Western world is on the brink of going bankrupt in its entirety. All of it in one big puff of economic collapse. Completely self-inflicted.
^I thought you were here to calm the rest of us down?
I've never understood why everyone just could not agree to hit a kind of fiscal "reboot" button.
My lack of understanding is no doubt connected to my ignorance of international economics.
^I don't understand a lot of it either but I do understand: "GIMME BACK MY EFFING MONEY YOU CRETINS." Which is basically what Germany is saying.
Oooo. And there really are Cretins in Greece!!
Yes! Somebody translate that into German.
You have to remember, the socialists in Germany are still more fiscally responsible than the Conservatives of most other nations. :)
Maybe Greece can become a World Bank protectorate. Sort of like how the bank repossesses your assets if you can't pay your bills... only this time it repossesses the entire country.
I keed, I keed.
I'm with 40 though, if history is any judge then decline and fracture are inevitable in all superstates and empires. We do have an unprecedented level of connectivity in information and online networking, but that may not stop political fracture. If we ever achieve a "one world state" I think it will have to be virtually.
^That would be a great thesis.
And I would pay 5.00 to watch the Germans repossess Greece.
Quote from: Gusington on May 25, 2012, 10:40:35 AM
^That would be a great thesis.
And I would pay 5.00 to watch the Germans repossess Greece.
I've always thought a comparison work on America and the Roman Empire would be fun to write. I wouldn't write it as a "hard" academic text, however, it would be better as a sort of "pundit" opinion piece. Think of how it would SELL!
Quote from: Gusington on May 25, 2012, 10:21:55 AM
Yes! Somebody translate that into German.
Schlippy schlippy der cheekin'
^Thank you, I thought it went something like that.
SoM I know you have heard of Niall Ferguson. His Colossus is exactly what you describe above.
comparing USA with Rome would not be muchly possible as the roman empire lasted for over a thousand years and well....
current trends show
** the average american citizen will weigh like 300 pounds after this next superbowl
** the level of anti-intellectualism will result in entire centers (states) of profound stupidity
** literacy levels will continue to fall but it will stop short of the populace not being able to read Pringles can opening instructions
** the self entitlement/irresponsibility wave will continue to grow and american debt will continue unabated - red states will continue to porkbarrel onto omnibus bills cuz that don't really count
^Why so down on the US, Poo? BTW if I ever weighed even close to 200 pounds I would die.
Quote from: son_of_montfort on May 25, 2012, 10:30:02 AM
You have to remember, the socialists in Germany are still more fiscally responsible than the Conservatives of most other nations. :)
Yup. Bush II, we're looking at you.
Quote from: Gusington on May 25, 2012, 09:55:28 AM
^I thought you were here to calm the rest of us down?
Normally, yes.
But the US won't be able to take another few years of spending without a budget. We'll become Greece, but without the feta.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 24, 2012, 03:06:00 PM
Greece could sell one of it's islands to Germany for all it's debt. That would keep the EU together. Otherwise it is probably going to be Greece, Spain, Ireland, maybe Portugal, maybe Italy out.
Would that be Lesbos Island ::)
Quote from: OJsDad on May 25, 2012, 11:34:51 AM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 24, 2012, 03:06:00 PM
Greece could sell one of it's islands to Germany for all it's debt. That would keep the EU together. Otherwise it is probably going to be Greece, Spain, Ireland, maybe Portugal, maybe Italy out.
Would that be Lesbos Island ::)
Huzzah!!
Quote from: Gusington on May 25, 2012, 10:40:35 AM
^That would be a great thesis.
And I would pay 5.00 to watch the Germans repossess Greece.
The Europeans use opposite number punctuation so that would be 5k euros.
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 25, 2012, 12:05:51 PM
Quote from: OJsDad on May 25, 2012, 11:34:51 AM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 24, 2012, 03:06:00 PM
Greece could sell one of it's islands to Germany for all it's debt. That would keep the EU together. Otherwise it is probably going to be Greece, Spain, Ireland, maybe Portugal, maybe Italy out.
Would that be Lesbos Island ::)
Huzzah!!
I was thinking Rhodes actually. I'd rather spend Oktoberfest in Rhodes with drunk bikini chicks then in cold, wet Germany.
I've always figured that the Mayan end of the world thing isn't a world destruction event, but a worldwide financial meltdown that triggers a collapse of society as we know it today. It will start with Europe, the US, and China, and quickly followed by Russia, India and the other devloping counties. The third world countries will find themselves without the aid they they live off of today and will go into full scale civil war.
Niall Ferguson lays it out... again...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/munk-debates/video-niall-ferguson-predicted-the-euro-crisis-but-hed-rather-fix-it-than-gloat/article2443813/ (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/munk-debates/video-niall-ferguson-predicted-the-euro-crisis-but-hed-rather-fix-it-than-gloat/article2443813/)
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 25, 2012, 04:59:04 PM
Niall Ferguson lays it out... again...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/munk-debates/video-niall-ferguson-predicted-the-euro-crisis-but-hed-rather-fix-it-than-gloat/article2443813/ (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/munk-debates/video-niall-ferguson-predicted-the-euro-crisis-but-hed-rather-fix-it-than-gloat/article2443813/)
Yup.
"The aim is to create here in Britain a really hostile environment for illegal migration," she said.
"What we don't want is a situation where people think that they can come here and overstay because they're able to access everything they need."
Prime Minister David Cameron said last week the eurozone must decide soon whether it wants to stay together or break-up.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18216538 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18216538)
Canada will need to block illegals aggressively as well. There could soon be millions trying to get out of southern europe.
if you take a close look you will see that germany isn't that much better concerning debts than other european countries. it accumulates debt and all the past years of conservative reign did not change anything. but germany does have a strong economy.
there a lot of comments over here critizising germany promoting austerity plans for southern europe because germany itself does not always play along these rules themself.