http://thechronicleherald.ca/world/109858-syrian-fighter-pilot-flies-to-asylum
Huh. A Colonel. Interesting.
I heard on the news it was an officer. Didn't know it was a colonel.
TV also reports we've got a few CIA folks distributing arms to the guys we like on the ground, courtesy Saudi Arabia, et al. Good to know we've finally put a toe in the pool.
I wonder if we also had a hand in that Russian ship transporting the helos losing it's insurance and turning back.
Quote from: mirth on June 22, 2012, 08:17:16 AM
I wonder if we also had a hand in that Russian ship transporting the helos losing it's insurance and turning back.
That is merely legerdemain.
If the Russians were sincere about getting those helos to Syria they'd guarantee the ship's cargo themselves. The ship will return, they'll wait a couple of weeks, and then try again.
Don't you think it was just a face-saving way for the Russians to get out of delivering the helos? They've probably already been paid for the repair work and delivery.
Good Point Mirth !
Quote from: mirth on June 22, 2012, 08:29:13 AM
Don't you think it was just a face-saving way for the Russians to get out of delivering the helos? They've probably already been paid for the repair work and delivery.
Just like someone doing business with the mafia.
Quote from: mirth on June 22, 2012, 08:29:13 AM
Don't you think it was just a face-saving way for the Russians to get out of delivering the helos? They've probably already been paid for the repair work and delivery.
Could be.
How many news stories do we read about arms shipments/deliveries?
None.
This was in the news for a reason. Maybe behind the scenes the Russians are pulling back from Syria, but I don't know why. Perhaps they're looking to curtail a nuclear Iran, too.
No one wants a nuclear armed Iran. That's like letting your slow cousin Otis horde all the fireworks.
Turkey says one of its jets is missing and believes Syria shot it down: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/06/22/turkish-warplane-reportedly-goes-missing-near-syria/
Quote from: LongBlade on June 22, 2012, 05:17:27 PM
Turkey says one of its jets is missing and believes Syria shot it down: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/06/22/turkish-warplane-reportedly-goes-missing-near-syria/
Questions that come to mind:
1.) Will this be enough to goad/justify Turkey into taking a more open hand in the conflict?
2.) Did the incident actually happen, or did Turkey manufacture it in some way?
3.) Would Turkey openly intervening be a good thing?
Syria's gov't has already claimed responsibility for the shoot-down, saying the jet was trespassing and shot down according to standing ROEs. Considering that Turkey and Syria were allies not long ago that statement is not going to go down well in Ankara methinks. If the pilot and co-pilot are confirmed killed then the thing will go up a few more notches. The Turkish gov't has already stated it will take punitive action when the facts of the case are confirmed.
^^
Pretext for invoking Article 5 with NATO and bypassing the UN altogether?
^Interesting thought...
Quote from: bayonetbrant on June 23, 2012, 06:27:18 AM
^^
Pretext for invoking Article 5 with NATO and bypassing the UN altogether?
I can't see it. Nothing but Turkish outrage will come of this, unless they are prepared to act unilaterally with NATO moral support and some additional $$ under the table.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on June 23, 2012, 06:27:18 AM
^^
Pretext for invoking Article 5 with NATO and bypassing the UN altogether?
My first thought was of NATO, too. Syria was pretty dumb to do that (or a rogue element of it was if not from the top).
I seriously doubt anyone in NATO is looking to steamroll Syria. But it does give us justification to do pretty much anything we want - if we want.
Slight update:
Quote"Our investigation will focus on whether the plane was brought down within our borders or not," Gul said. "Because the consequences could be quite serious, there will be no clear statement before the details (of the incident) are scrutinized," Gul said.
The Turkish president added that it was "routine" for jets flying in high-speeds to violate other countries air spaces for short periods of time.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/06/23/turkey-vows-necessary-action-after-syria-admits-shooting-down-military-plane
All that matters is where was it engaged? If it really is 1km of the coast of Syria it was a legit shoot-down. Maybe not friendly, but legal. Don't most countries scramble interceptors to meet it? That brings up an interesting question for Arctic air defence. Due to the size of northern Canada would we try to save money by just installing missile batteries to defend against something like bear bombers? AFAIN the Russians have always turned away just before entering our air space. What is a normal reaction to foreign militaries operating in a country's airspace? What then for drones over Pakistan? How long can that continue before you really should be declaring hostilities? It all seems rather fooked up. Does it always come down to who has the biggest stick? If so the world will degenerate to US+EU vs Russia +China. The tie breaker will be who starts defending a space empire.
During the Cold War, there were unofficial UsSoviet protocals. You could go that close, but any closer and we'll shoot.
This was pretty much understood by all the pros who were on duty on both sides. New bies and diehards had trouble with the concept.
I think Korea was a high point in tensions, and once it was over (and Joe Stalin died soon afterwards), then things became calmer. There was still a lot going on, but both side's militaries started to agree on rules of behavior.
In regards to Canada and the Arctic Circle, before BMEWS was established to watch over the Pole by radar, both sides had early airborne early warning planes up there. Before ICBMs were a viable threat, the big fear was a Soviet nuclear bomber surge over the Pole.
Rumor was that both sides shot down planes that came a little too close to the borders.
Now Turkey is saying it was in international airspace. They have:
"called a meeting of NATO member states to discuss its response to the shooting down of one of its warplanes by Syrian forces on Friday.Ankara has invoked Article 4 of Nato's charter, under which consultations can be requested when an ally feels their security is threatened, officials say."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18568207 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18568207)
Sounds like a push for regime change. Why do I get the feeling Russia will be ready to get in a scrap? The EU will be happy to oblige if it removes their finances from the front page.
The paranoid cynic in me thinks the plane was a drone and it now gives Turkey and excuse to do some "cross-border shopping."
Don't worry I'll be fine after the meds kick in !
Quote from: MIGMaster on June 24, 2012, 05:46:27 PM
The paranoid cynic in me thinks the plane was a drone and it now gives Turkey and excuse to do some "cross-border shopping."
Don't worry I'll be fine after the meds kick in !
Paranoid...or wishful thinking.
This also opens the door to NATO potentially funneling more aid/guns/whatever into the "friendlies" in Syria.
Gulf of Tonkin anyone?
Quote from: mirth on June 25, 2012, 12:50:07 AM
Gulf of Tonkin anyone?
Good thinking. Anything is possible.
Syrian civil war.... So?
Another Syrian general, two colonels, and some lower-ranks defected on Sunday night. And Turkey is pretty adamant that the plane was outside of Syrian airspace when it was hit, though it did stray over briefly.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/26/world/middleeast/syrian-military-defections-reported.html?hp
I'm thinking it is one of the rebel factions who fired on the plane to get some Western assistance.
.
Quote from: eyebiter on June 25, 2012, 05:04:31 PM
What happens to the MiG-21? Will they keep the plane or send it back to Syria?
wow... newscasters.... I heard on TV that it was an F4
Quote from: Windigo on June 25, 2012, 05:06:03 PM
Quote from: eyebiter on June 25, 2012, 05:04:31 PM
What happens to the MiG-21? Will they keep the plane or send it back to Syria?
wow... newscasters.... I heard on TV that it was an F4
The F4 was the Turkish jet shot down by the Syrian Ack-Ack. The MiG-21 was the plane that the defecting Syrian pilot flew to Jordan.
Good god, I could shoot a Mig down.... Azz wouldn't like the catapult ride or the suckage into the intake, but it would bring the Mig down.
:o
This is kinda weird, the Israelis produce an upgraded version of the Mig-21
http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/mig21/
The Israelis produce an upgraded version of everything! I think they even have a Tiger Moth with afterburners and LGB's :D
That must be hell for the ground crew.
Dope covered wings don't do well at supersonic.
Quote from: besilarius on June 26, 2012, 05:57:06 AM
That must be hell for the ground crew.
Dope covered wings don't do well at supersonic.
microfibre technology....
What's the ground crew doing putting dope all over the wings ? :o
A Republican Guard commander is the latest defector-
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/07/world/middleeast/opponents-of-syrias-president-gather-in-paris.html?hp
Can't help but think that some the elite circle guys are starting to see the writing on the wall and are looking to avoid being shot in the streets or dragged into The Hague for war crimes.
Migs, Tiger Moths were still used by the RAF during early WWII for transport and courier services.
This was not a real problem for the ground crews because parts of the Hurricane body were fabric covered by dope.
As the war progressed though, it became difficult to maintain them as dope covered wings became obsolete.
Somebody in Syria got some solid intel on a big meeting.
QuoteA deadly attack on top Syrian officials Wednesday delivered the harshest blow yet to President Bashar al-Assad's regime, bringing the bloodshed into his inner circle, and even his family.
Defense Minister Dawood Rajiha, Deputy Defense Minister Assef Shawkat -- al-Assad's brother-in-law -- and Hasan Turkmani, al-Assad's security adviser and assistant vice president, were killed in an explosion at a national security building in Damascus, state TV reported. Others were injured, state TV said.
Source: http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/18/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
Did the explosion have a vapour trail emanating from Turkey?
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 18, 2012, 09:32:00 AM
Did the explosion have a vapour trail emanating from Turkey?
Good point. They might have had some help.
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 18, 2012, 09:32:00 AM
Did the explosion have a vapour trail emanating from Turkey?
is that really Turkey's style?
Maybe they were beaten by lead pipes and burned with cigarettes before they were blown up?
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 18, 2012, 09:48:36 AM
Maybe they were beaten by lead pipes and burned with cigarettes before they were blown up?
Too much to ask. We should just be pleased that some well deserved justice has been served.
Turkey now isn't what they were 10 years ago. And I mean that in a bad way. They have changed. It might just be their style now.
Quote from: LongBlade on July 18, 2012, 09:52:30 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 18, 2012, 09:48:36 AM
Maybe they were beaten by lead pipes and burned with cigarettes before they were blown up?
Too much to ask. We should just be pleased that some well deserved justice has been served.
blown to bits.... seems a tad merciful vs. some other possibilities
http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/19/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
Now there's talk that Assad is in hiding.
Yes, he supposedly holed up in his bunkerpalace on the Med coast somewhere. Also, Doesn't anyone find the recent highly effective bomb attack that killed some of Assad's homeboys a little bit... professional? I'm worried that there is something more in play here that the news isn't covering. If certain very hardened and coordinated operators (*cough*AQ*cough*) set up shop in the Syrian interior they may be able to get to some of Assadhole's supposedly ginormous caches of CBw agents. This could be a problem if the stuff gets trucked out and dispersed to hidey holes across the ME. You can take out a whole lot of people with a few cylinders of Sarin, especially if they get dispersed in an open urban area.
Do you really think that AQ has the resources to pull-off an attack like that inside of Syria?
Hezbollah/Iran maybe.
Israelis?
US?
Tom Clancy tells us that the Israelis could pull-off something like this, but why? Same with the US, why?
Divide and conquor baby!
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 19, 2012, 12:55:23 PM
Do you really think that AQ has the resources to pull-off an attack like that inside of Syria?
Hezbollah/Iran maybe.
Doubtful since Assad is one of Hez/Iran's cuddly-kins. AFA AQ, they would appeal to some of the Sunni hardliners who have been trying to overthrow Assad for quite a long time. The original Syrian underground rebellion has been fighting for around 20 years now. Remember when Assad, Sr virtually bulldozer Hama to the ground in the 90's due to violent uprisings? AQ has had a long time to set up their network there in anticipation of when the Dung finally hit the Rotating Atmosphere Impeller.
Is AQ really such a pantheon of loyalty that they wouldn't blow Assad to kingdom come?
Quote from: Gusington on July 19, 2012, 01:13:30 PM
Is AQ really such a pantheon of loyalty that they wouldn't blow Assad to kingdom come?
See my edited post above.
Hmm so AQ could have the motive but do they have the means?
Quote from: Gusington on July 19, 2012, 01:21:03 PM
Hmm so AQ could have the motive but do they have the means?
I'm thinking that they have been able to pull off exactly this kind of attack numerous times already, especially in urban areas where there is lots of cover movement. AQ plans these thing out well in advance and sets up the pieces with an eye to the long view. If there had been a second explosion at a different facility at the same time then AQ would be a cinch for it.
^Even with all of the losses they have been taking over the last few years?
Quote from: Gusington on July 19, 2012, 01:50:21 PM
^Even with all of the losses they have been taking over the last few years?
I imagine that they will have a harder time pulling off these things in the West or where there is strong surveillance but in places like Syria they could be funding actions locally or with drug money smuggled in to avoid electronic funds.
Lots of things are falling out of this.
I certainly cannot be coincidence that the US rolled into Iraq, terraformed their political landscape, and suddenly the Mideast is bitten by popular uprisings.
I'm not saying we're directly behind all of the Arab Spring, but I am saying the events are not wholly unconnected - for better or worse.
Syria is Russia's last ally in the region and their only friendly port in the Med. They should have played nicer when they had the chance.
Syria was also Iran's biggest ally in the region. The attack in Bulgaria yesterday is probably not unrelated to the problems in Syria. With the fall of Assad Iran no longer has a proxy on Israel's border. They can still pull off plenty of mischief, but it's no longer convenient for them to get close to Israel on a moment's notice. Whether Iran can build relations with Egypt remains to be seen, but I would expect to find some kind of overtures being made.
I'm kind of afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood taking advantage of the situation.
Quote from: Gusington on July 20, 2012, 08:08:54 AM
I'm kind of afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood taking advantage of the situation.
They're well positioned to do so.
Syria is now threatening to use its chemical weapons against any foreign intervention.
QuoteSyria acknowledged for the first time on Monday that it had chemical and biological weapons and said it could use them if foreign countries intervened.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/assads-forces-overrun-two-damascus-districts-010158222.html
Quote from: LongBlade on July 23, 2012, 12:47:02 PM
Syria is now threatening to use its chemical weapons against any foreign intervention.
QuoteSyria acknowledged for the first time on Monday that it had chemical and biological weapons and said it could use them if foreign countries intervened.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/assads-forces-overrun-two-damascus-districts-010158222.html
Wow! I think that's the very worst thing they could have said publicly... I mean what a way to draw more unwelcome attention to yourself.... :P
Quote from: Barthheart on July 23, 2012, 02:41:48 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on July 23, 2012, 12:47:02 PM
Syria is now threatening to use its chemical weapons against any foreign intervention.
QuoteSyria acknowledged for the first time on Monday that it had chemical and biological weapons and said it could use them if foreign countries intervened.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/assads-forces-overrun-two-damascus-districts-010158222.html
Wow! I think that's the very worst thing they could have said publicly... I mean what a way to draw more unwelcome attention to yourself.... :P
Not exactly the best way to endear yourself to the upcoming host of the next war trials hearings.
I took their statement to be more of statement that they were not currently using their stash of NBCs on their own population.
Use of fixed wing aircraft being reported in the battle of Aleppo-
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/world/middleeast/use-of-warplanes-is-reported-in-syrian-conflict.html?hp
Isn't the Syrian Air Force supposed to be loyal to Assad?
Maybe the Turks could clear the skies for the rebels. Then again, maybe the rebels will be worse than Assad.
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 24, 2012, 11:46:40 AM
Isn't the Syrian Air Force supposed to be loyal to Assad?
Maybe the Turks could clear the skies for the rebels. Then again, maybe the rebels will be worse than Assad.
Watching the talking heads on TV last night it was clear that the major fear is that Syrian WMD would be given to Hizbollah.
What's unclear is what is happening behind the scenes to discourage that (diplomatic/military/whatevs). Point is, this could get a lot uglier.
Nothing like a lose-lose situation.
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 24, 2012, 01:15:03 PM
Nothing like a lose-lose situation.
This one has all the potential to go to hell in a handbasket. Hopefully enough carrots and sticks are being put on the table that the worst is avoided.
I wonder if they have them hidden well. I could see a massive shock-and-awe style strategic airstrike and missile attack campaign if things got to the brink and it looked like Hizbollah or someone else was going to get those weapons. I suspect Israel has a plan as well.
If this starts a third world war we should all get together and form our own brigade. See y'all in downtown Damascus.
Quote from: Gusington on July 24, 2012, 09:07:54 PM
If this starts a third world war we should all get together and form our own brigade. See y'all in downtown Damascus.
If it comes down to GrogHeads having to settle this in Damascus I'm going to be pissed.
Quote from: Gusington on July 24, 2012, 09:07:54 PM
If this starts a third world war we should all get together and form our own brigade. See y'all in downtown Damascus.
I'll take your picture with my UAV. ;)
Quote from: LongBlade on July 24, 2012, 10:33:17 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 24, 2012, 09:07:54 PM
If this starts a third world war we should all get together and form our own brigade. See y'all in downtown Damascus.
If it comes down to GrogHeads having to settle this in Damascus I'm going to be pissed.
We'd better brush up on our Combat Mission Shock Force skills now.
I spoke w/ a Syria expert at NDU yesterday (was stationed there for 5 years w/ State Dept) and he doesn't think Assad's regime last more than another 2-3 weeks. He's seen too many indicators that their support is crumbling under them. Many of the Damascus neighborhoods where the fighting is are the ones that were populated by Alawite regime members, who obviously aren't around if the rebels are in control of those districts and being shot at by the gov't.
Dunno if he's right, but he knows more about the situation than anyone else I know and knows what indicators to look at.
Be careful what you wish for, Gus.
Remember all those dreamy, idealistic kids who formed the International Brigades in the Spanish Civil War?
Would have to check to be sure, but between combat, dysentery, typhus, and Uncle Joe Stalin's Truth Brigade, the number of survivors was somewhere around 25%.
Franco was not very merciful, and if Assad somehow pulls it off (which seems less likely every week), the punishments will be on a par with the French Revolution.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on July 25, 2012, 05:50:06 AM
I spoke w/ a Syria expert at NDU yesterday (was stationed there for 5 years w/ State Dept) and he doesn't think Assad's regime last more than another 2-3 weeks. He's seen too many indicators that their support is crumbling under them. Many of the Damascus neighborhoods where the fighting is are the ones that were populated by Alawite regime members, who obviously aren't around if the rebels are in control of those districts and being shot at by the gov't.
Dunno if he's right, but he knows more about the situation than anyone else I know and knows what indicators to look at.
I think he's right.
From what I gathered from the talking heads on TV, it's now Assad and a bunch of colonels (more or less). Syria has always had a fractured leadership. The fact that there is now fighting in Damascus is a bad sign if you were part of the ancien regime. The country has been overrun by rebels. If you're still fighting you just don't know it yet.
You're taking all the adventure out of the possibilities Bes!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Me8W1WcgCY
good video from the FSyA showing them capturing some T72s.
Thanks to Rex for pointing it out.
I heard speculation from a FSA spokesman that the Regime had ringed the City of Aleppo with 30 or more tanks from nearby army units but that the commanders were afraid to send them in because of the chance that most of the crews would defect. Instead the attack must wait until armored units from much farther away arrive with a lower percentage of crews with local ties.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19146380
The freekin' Syrian Prime Minister just defected to Jordan! Assad better get his kids and his money out now because history shows these things can go critical pretty fast and unless he wants to be another Qaddafi, Ceausescu, or Mussolini-on-a-hook he better have the back door open and the car engine running...
Indeed. This does strike me as being a potential tipping point.
Quote from: Martok on August 06, 2012, 11:02:36 AM
Indeed. This does strike me as being a potential tipping point.
The tipping point was the assassination (heh, no irony there) of the Syrian leadership below Assad. It's just taking a couple of weeks to catch up to the rest of the regime.
This will become very bloody when all the bigshots leave. All the pentup rage at them will be taken out on their Alawite supporters.
Digging them out of their highland fortresses could be an ongoing process that will take years. It just doesn't seem like the rebels will give them any chance to survive unless they surrender really quick.
In that case, there will be some atrocities, some tiger cages, but not for all.
Another defection.
QuoteThe deputy police commander for the central Syrian province of Homs has defected to Jordan, an opposition source said on Sunday, further undermining President Bashar al-Assad as he struggles to crush an uprising against his rule.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/senior-syrian-policeman-defects-opposition-124917244.html
It's a big party and only Assad is not invited.