The Defections Begin

[Centurion40]

^^

Pretext for invoking Article 5 with NATO and bypassing the UN altogether?

I can't see it.  Nothing but Turkish outrage will come of this, unless they are prepared to act unilaterally with NATO moral support and some additional $$ under the table.

[LongBlade]

^^

Pretext for invoking Article 5 with NATO and bypassing the UN altogether?

My first thought was of NATO, too. Syria was pretty dumb to do that (or a rogue element of it was if not from the top).

I seriously doubt anyone in NATO is looking to steamroll Syria. But it does give us justification to do pretty much anything we want - if we want.

[LongBlade]

Slight update:

"Our investigation will focus on whether the plane was brought down within our borders or not," Gul said. "Because the consequences could be quite serious, there will be no clear statement before the details (of the incident) are scrutinized," Gul said.

The Turkish president added that it was "routine" for jets flying in high-speeds to violate other countries air spaces for short periods of time.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/06/23/turkey-vows-necessary-action-after-syria-admits-shooting-down-military-plane

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

All that matters is where was it engaged? If it really is 1km of the coast of Syria it was a legit shoot-down. Maybe not friendly, but legal. Don't most countries scramble interceptors to meet it? That brings up an interesting question for Arctic air defence. Due to the size of northern Canada would we try to save money by just installing missile batteries to defend against something like bear bombers? AFAIN the Russians have always turned away just before entering our air space. What is a normal reaction to foreign militaries operating in a country's airspace? What then for drones over Pakistan? How long can that continue before you really should be declaring hostilities? It all seems rather fooked up. Does it always come down to who has the biggest stick? If so the world will degenerate to US+EU vs Russia +China. The tie breaker will be who starts defending a space empire.

[besilarius]

During the Cold War, there were unofficial UsSoviet protocals.  You could go that close, but any closer and we'll shoot.
This was pretty much understood by all the pros who were on duty on both sides.  New bies and diehards had trouble with the concept.
I think Korea was a high point in tensions, and once it was over (and Joe Stalin died soon afterwards), then things became calmer.  There was still a lot going on, but both side's militaries started to agree on rules of behavior.
In regards to Canada and the Arctic Circle, before BMEWS was established to watch over the Pole by radar, both sides had early airborne early warning planes up there.  Before ICBMs were a viable threat, the big fear was a Soviet nuclear bomber surge over the Pole.
Rumor was that both sides shot down planes that came a little too close to the borders.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Now Turkey is saying it was in international airspace. They have:


"called a meeting of NATO member states to discuss its response to the shooting down of one of its warplanes by Syrian forces on Friday.Ankara has invoked Article 4 of Nato's charter, under which consultations can be requested when an ally feels their security is threatened, officials say."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18568207
Sounds like a push for regime change. Why do I get the feeling Russia will be ready to get in a scrap? The EU will be happy to oblige if it removes their finances from the front page.

[MIGMaster]

The paranoid cynic in me thinks the plane was a drone and it now gives Turkey and excuse to do some "cross-border shopping."

Don't worry I'll be fine after the meds kick in !

[LongBlade]

The paranoid cynic in me thinks the plane was a drone and it now gives Turkey and excuse to do some "cross-border shopping."

Don't worry I'll be fine after the meds kick in !

Paranoid...or wishful thinking.

This also opens the door to NATO potentially funneling more aid/guns/whatever into the "friendlies" in Syria.

[mirth]

Gulf of Tonkin anyone?

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Gulf of Tonkin anyone?

Good thinking. Anything is possible.

[Windigo]

Syrian civil war....   So?

[mirth]

Another Syrian general, two colonels, and some lower-ranks defected on Sunday night. And Turkey is pretty adamant that the plane was outside of Syrian airspace when it was hit, though it did stray over briefly.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/26/world/middleeast/syrian-military-defections-reported.html?hp

[Gusington]

I'm thinking it is one of the rebel factions who fired on the plane to get some Western assistance.

[eyebiter]

.

[Windigo]

What happens to the MiG-21?  Will they keep the plane or send it back to Syria?

wow... newscasters.... I heard on TV that it was an F4