not so much a current event but more of a question.
in the real world how much of a global threat is the PLAN?
they dont need to operate globaly and for the most part they really dont. they'll never close the Atlantic, the Horn, or the Persian Gulf nor can they operate off of South America or the US west coast.
discuss.
Let us look at it this way: when was the last time the USA underestimated an Asian military force?
Discuss.
oh we dont do that at all now.
Id venture to say that the Japanese Navy today is the 2nd most capable in the world going by hull type and number. their electronics are on par with ours. having said that Ill defer to doctrine. the US and Japanese Navy's have decades operating against and with each other doing blue water ops. the Chinese... not so much. I'll put it like this. I kick ass in a modern wargame. in the real world BB would beat the snot out me prison style.
what makes you think the PLAN has a plan?
Right now, their navy is a very regional force.
It will take probably ten-fifteen years for them to develop a full spectrum force, with naval air, efficient submarines, and a trained force of surface combatants.
They can get away with a lot now, because the Philippines and Vietnam have no force projection at sea. Only Japan can face them, regionally.
The thing to watch for the future, is if they take the next step to long range deployments by building the Service Squadrons/Sea Train that the USN developed during the Pacific War. The only reason we can do things like put carrier group(s) outside Iran is the surprisingly large number of support vessels.
They ain't sexy, and they never get any attention in the news, but they're the oil that makes things happen.
Until they develop something like that, and a real carrier force (to have air cover outside of their land based air), then their navy is only a local force.
This is completely irrelevant but every time I hear the term Peoples' Liberation Army Navy I have a vision of racks of decommissioned Spanish Military raincoats along side bins filled with canteens from Hungary and cheap folding entrenching tools, all for sale somewhere on Telegraph Avenue...
'decommissioned Spanish Military raincoats'
I have no idea why, but that made me laugh my socks off - evidently I'm even dafter than I thought I was.
In the Spanish Army even the raincoats are officers.
IMHO the Chinese submarine fleet poses the greatest threat. With the amount of merchant traffic in that region, PLAN diesel subs could do a lot of damage. Not just traditional attack sub roles, passive missions including deploying mines, using subs to drop off special forces, or to track US surface ships for Chinese ballistic missile targeting.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 26, 2013, 12:26:16 AM
oh we dont do that at all now.
Is that a quote from MacArthur's 1950's hit "Yalu River"? Or was it the Brit band "Christie" in the 70's?
Anyway with out meaning to demean your opinion, the PLAN know they are the underdog and the USN
has ruled the waves since Britain gave that up. The capabilities of the Japanese Self Defense Forces
are well known. It is unlikely the Plan of the PLAN is to meet this Naval strength. The Chinese seem to
do things differently and for the long term. And the classic carrier group is becoming vulnerable to missile
technology.
Becoming? The carrier group has been a sitting duck for missiles for a long time. It's protection has been that nobody wants a full out war with a country that has one.
Chinese missile capability is nothing compared to what the Soviets could have thrown at a CVBG.
thats not posturing or over confidence, its simple fact. if I were a US Admiral Id rather face the Chinese Air Force and day rather then Soviet Naval Bombers.
the issue w/ the Chinese is not their threat level today, but their threat level in 30 years, because that's the major acquisition horizon for most DoD programs. If we need a new hull type for Pac Rim naval combat, we need to start prepping and commissioning those things now if we want them to be available in 30 years.
What can they do right now? Nothing we can't legitimately counter. It would be ugly for a bit, especially if they surprise everyone with a Pearl Harbor-type massive attack. (Think 20 subs sinking 3 merchant ships each within 24 hours). But it wouldn't take long for us to completely remove the threat w/ conventional missiles and massive naval airpower.
What can they do in 30 years? I'll defer to the experts.
That said, what would the economic costs of such a move be? I don't think China can afford to piss off the rest of the world by attacking all their trade partners.
Quote from: bob48 on January 26, 2013, 10:46:21 AM
'decommissioned Spanish Military raincoats'
I have no idea why, but that made me laugh my socks off - evidently I'm even dafter than I thought I was.
That discovery is not usually a pleasant surprise! Hat's off to you Bob!!
The whole thing has started to worry me. I mean to say, if I've become aware that I'm dafter than I thought I was, I could be even dafter without knowing it.
I'll just have to rely on you lot telling me if I say something really crazy.......
...erm, no, maybe not such a good idea....(mutter, mutter.....)
Do not worry if you are crazy. If you do worry you aren't. It is like being boring. If you worry about
being boring you aren't. Crazy people are convinced they ARE ALL OKAY!! and that something is wrong
with YOU!! I have observed no evidence of this in anything you have posted. I will not vouch for
anyone else.
Personally I'm looking forward to a mild form of dementia. I'll get to enjoy all of my favorite movies all over a again!
Quote from: Longdan on January 26, 2013, 04:29:11 PM
Do not worry if you are crazy. If you do worry you aren't. It is like being boring. If you worry about
being boring you aren't. Crazy people are convinced they ARE ALL OKAY!! and that something is wrong
with YOU!! I have observed no evidence of this in anything you have posted. I will not vouch for
anyone else.
Oh sh*t! I am crazy then - and pretty boring it is too.
I disagree.
Quote from: Longdan on January 26, 2013, 04:29:11 PM
I will not vouch for anyone else.
Good. It wouldn't do for us to get the reputation of having a bunch of
normal people hanging around here. Not at all.
Not much danger of that. Probably never was... :D
I have a friend who sometimes reads over my shoulder and she often has interesting things to say.
Too bad that is a far as it is going to get. Except for "I just don't know why you play with those guys.
Why don't you just go out in the garage and play with some powertools for a while?"
Do the Chinese have any kind of tradition of surprise attack that the Japanese once had?
They've had Sun Tzu for a while. And living next door to the Japanese may have taught them a thing or two.
They gave off quite a bit of warning signs before intervening in the Korean nonwar but they were ignored.
Hmm...how about in their border wars with the Soviets? The Indians? And their more recent wars with Vietnam? I get the feeling that they like to posture and bluster and that surprise is not really their thing.
Maybe I just answered my own question.
I wouldn't lightly compare the post World War II army, with today's. The old army had, as its main task, guarding the Revolution and it's purity. They believed in case of a war, the tactics that served them well against the Japanese weregood enough.
If one believes the present military analysts, they have been rather scared by Gulf War I and II. Supposedly, they do not rely on numbers and guerrilla tactics anymore. But are trying to become more technically proficient, and more mechanized. Time will tell, of course.
However, the fight with Vietnam was an utter failure. Because Mao valued loyalty above all else, little was changed afterwards, but they want to be more now.
Well they kicked the crap out of India. I do not know why they thought
they would be able to teach the Vietnamese any lessons.
Quote from: besilarius on January 26, 2013, 09:16:01 PM
If one believes the present military analysts, they have been rather scared by Gulf War I and II.
The last 20 years of exercising American military power should scare the crap out of every standing military. If it's not buried under 500 feet of reinforced concrete, it exists only at our pleasure.
Once again I smell a whiff of overconfidence.
Please have a look at this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
Then let us all sing "Yalu River".
Quote from: LongBlade on January 27, 2013, 02:25:29 PM
Quote from: besilarius on January 26, 2013, 09:16:01 PM
If one believes the present military analysts, they have been rather scared by Gulf War I and II.
The last 20 years of exercising American military power should scare the crap out of every standing military. If it's not buried under 500 feet of reinforced concrete, it exists only at our pleasure.
*cough* the norks?
the fact that your nation hasn't bitch slapped them for threatening to use nukes on you is interesting, hell they could use it on Japan.... now that would destabilize the entire region
We already tried killing off those guys and it didn't work. I repeat myself.
Its inherently stupid to think you are invincible now and in the future. to many empires thought that are now in ruins.
Also dont underestimate the resolve of the chinese to be able to dominate their area of influence in say 20-30 years,
They are already changing both equipment and doctrines to fight modern battles.
Of course you guys are correct: we are not invincible.
But we have pretty much perfected the art of destroying standing armies. Chasing insurgents around the hills? Different story.
And, yes, China may be a real problem in the mid-future.
Quote from: jejo68 on January 29, 2013, 04:41:23 PM
Its inherently stupid to think you are invincible now and in the future. to many empires thought that are now in ruins.
Also dont underestimate the resolve of the chinese to be able to dominate their area of influence in say 20-30 years,
They are already changing both equipment and doctrines to fight modern battles.
the catch here is that they seem to be preparing for a central european type fight. now we're shown in 2 gulf wars that thats a fight we can win. especially when the technology gap is so great. as an example, the Chinese are just figuring out how to land on carriers. our next carrier will have electormagnetic launch and recover gear and shortly thereafter have direct energy defence weapons. the Chinese are still ramping up operations with J-10s while we try to get our 4th generation stealth aircraft up and running. the Chinese dont have the power projection to take Tiawan. we operating globally and have been for over 60 years.
are we invincible? no but we're really damn good at dominating a battlespace and no ones invading our territory with an army.
The day of the Carrier Battlegroup may be passing and there goes power projection.
I never worry about quiet confidence but the same people make the same mistakes over and over
again. You believe your own press and your own legends and that cannot be good. Once again
I draw your attention to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002 . There are some
harsh lessons in there that nobody wants to learn.
and what makes you think the CVBG is getting outdated?
whats your original thought on the matter? no links to articles or websites.
I want to hear what YOU think dan.
perhaps dan you should post a wiki article about an exercise that happened 11 years ago again.
hell... go for broke and quote Wargames. thats about the depth of your ability.
Who needs an occupying army?
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/does-china-plan-to-establish-chinese-cities-and-special-economic-zones-all-over-america (http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/does-china-plan-to-establish-chinese-cities-and-special-economic-zones-all-over-america)
Thank you Star.
Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on January 29, 2013, 11:25:03 PM
Who needs an occupying army?
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/does-china-plan-to-establish-chinese-cities-and-special-economic-zones-all-over-america (http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/does-china-plan-to-establish-chinese-cities-and-special-economic-zones-all-over-america)
I NEED their take out! all Jews need Chinese food. 90% of our ethnic food sucks.
Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on January 29, 2013, 11:25:03 PM
Who needs an occupying army?
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/does-china-plan-to-establish-chinese-cities-and-special-economic-zones-all-over-america (http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/does-china-plan-to-establish-chinese-cities-and-special-economic-zones-all-over-america)
Nydus canals.
isnt that idea what people were fearing the Japanese were doing in the 80s?
When the Chinese economy finally implodes there will be a mass exodus of their wealthy looking to emigrate to the US. Foreigners who make a half million dollar investment in a business in a rural area can qualify for a visa.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EB-5_visa
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 29, 2013, 08:16:02 PMno ones invading our territory with an army.
well, we do have moats on two sides - no invasions there
Canada to the north - no invasions there
Mexico to the south - no
army invading from there
Beware the Filipinos.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 30, 2013, 06:52:19 AM
....
Canada to the north - no invasions there
....
Hey, the complacency plan is working.... ;)
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 30, 2013, 06:52:19 AM
Canada to the north - no invasions there that we couldn't distract with a couple of well-oiled Florida beach bunnies with tan lines peeking out of their bikinis and a 72" flat screen showing real football
fixed it
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 30, 2013, 09:19:22 AM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 30, 2013, 06:52:19 AM
Canada to the north - no invasions there that we couldn't distract with a couple of well-oiled Florida beach bunnies with tan lines peeking out of their bikinis and a 72" flat screen showing real football
fixed it
Sounds good as long as by "real football" you mean Canadian Football..... ;)
^^ If I had meant "Canadian" I would've typed "Canadian"... ;)
... or "barbarian" ;D
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 30, 2013, 09:19:22 AM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 30, 2013, 06:52:19 AM
Canada to the north - no invasions there that we couldn't distract with a couple of well-oiled Florida beach bunnies with tan lines peeking out of their bikinis and a 72" flat screen showing real football
fixed it
That would work effectively on my compatriots. Cold beer would be icing on the cake. College football would be a deal breaker.
People in Detroit complain that they can hear us in Windsor.... sharpening our skates. They know we are coming.
This Homeland security thing has really screwed up the cross border stripper tour migration. The young drunk
American guys are having a harder time getting home than in days gone by. Used to be just a wave, now they
have to explain to some grim and serious people exactly why they have to go home. "Mom gets upset if I bust
curfew" doesn't cut it anymore. Especially if they look terroristy.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on January 30, 2013, 12:08:03 AM
Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on January 29, 2013, 11:25:03 PM
Who needs an occupying army?
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/does-china-plan-to-establish-chinese-cities-and-special-economic-zones-all-over-america (http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/does-china-plan-to-establish-chinese-cities-and-special-economic-zones-all-over-america)
Nydus canals.
+1 Good one
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 30, 2013, 09:19:22 AM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 30, 2013, 06:52:19 AM
Canada to the north - no invasions there that we couldn't distract with a couple of well-oiled Florida beach bunnies with tan lines peeking out of their bikinis and a 72" flat screen showing real football
fixed it
You mean rugby football, right? Not some group of homos in spandex and body armour falling over each other for 2 seconds then group hugging each other for a five minute huddle while beer commercials play.
I likes Australian Rules Football. There is, I am told, only one rule: You can't set the uvver bloke on fire.
^Thats only during the dry season though.
That's two rules!
Dont try maths stuff on me - I get confused.
Its okay my maths were getting more worser.
Thats 3 of us then.
You mean you can do that multiplex thing? Damn scientist!
I got one of them e-lect-tronic calcumulator thingies :)
I only get to vote every four years.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/06/world/asia/china-japan-disputed-islands/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
Quote
Tokyo (CNN) -- Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Wednesday described as "dangerous" and "regrettable" the actions of a Chinese navy ship that Tokyo says put a radar-lock on a Japanese vessel last week. His comments come amid severely strained relations between the two Asian powers over a set of disputed islands in the East China Sea.
The tensions over the islands -- which Japan currently administers but both countries claim sovereignty over -- have resulted in maritime standoffs and the scrambling of Japanese fighter jets in recent months.
In the latest incident, Japan accused the Chinese navy ship of using radar to gather information on the location of a Japanese warship in the East China Sea. That type of radar could be used to produce data needed to fire upon the Japanese vessel.
I'd bet Japan goes nuclear within a week of China firing on their navy.
I do not like being downwind of that kind of crap.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on February 06, 2013, 06:51:02 PM
I'd bet Japan goes nuclear within a week of China firing on their navy.
Isn't there something in Japan's constitution about not engaging in a nuclear weapons program, or am I merely remembering an apocryphal story?
Don't know, cant read it. ;-)
All niceties of their polite culture go out the window when their navy starts being sunk. They will always see themselves as a sea based nation.
Quote from: Longdan on February 06, 2013, 06:58:08 PM
I do not like being downwind of that kind of crap.
They don't have to use it, they just say "Yu fukka around, yu sionarra."
China is upwind of Japan. China is still pissed that Japan is pretending WW2 didn't happen.
China is more nukey than Japan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_nuclear_weapon_program
no nukes for the Japanese military.
now giant robots on the other hand....
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2013, 08:27:25 PM
no nukes for the Japanese military.
now giant robots on the other hand....
+1
I wouldn't underestimate what a highly developed, gadgety-prone, limited resource nation is capable of. China had better bring their A game.
Do the Japanese operate their own drones or does the US do that for them?
In regards to the Japanese prime minister being enraged that a Chinese vessel shined a fire control radar at a Japanese vessel, this is pretty low level harassment.
If something like this could start a shooting match, then there would have been a new one every week in the Mediterranean during the 1970s. This is not so unusual, and it could even be a case of needing the better resolution to get an accurate range - bearing - course - speed, etc. (I don't believe it, but it could be.)
When the Chinese start maneuvering to use the "Rules of the Nautical Road" and Admiralty Law to be priveliged and try to force a collision, then the Prime Minister will have grounds.
Of course, when the Sovs did this to us back then, we complained through diplomatic channels.
Quote from: besilarius on February 06, 2013, 09:51:17 PM
When the Chinese start maneuvering to use the "Rules of the Nautical Road" and Admiralty Law to be priveliged and try to force a collision, then the Prime Minister will have grounds.
Of course, when the Sovs did this to us back then, we complained through diplomatic channels.
I would be more than happy to help draft a strongly worded letter.
Quote from: besilarius on February 06, 2013, 09:51:17 PM
In regards to the Japanese prime minister being enraged that a Chinese vessel shined a fire control radar at a Japanese vessel, this is pretty low level harassment.
If something like this could start a shooting match, then there would have been a new one every week in the Mediterranean during the 1970s. This is not so unusual, and it could even be a case of needing the better resolution to get an accurate range - bearing - course - speed, etc. (I don't believe it, but it could be.)
When the Chinese start maneuvering to use the "Rules of the Nautical Road" and Admiralty Law to be priveliged and try to force a collision, then the Prime Minister will have grounds.
Of course, when the Sovs did this to us back then, we complained through diplomatic channels.
there is the fact that the US and Russia didnt have over a 1000 years of hostility between them though.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 06, 2013, 10:37:29 PM
Quote from: besilarius on February 06, 2013, 09:51:17 PM
In regards to the Japanese prime minister being enraged that a Chinese vessel shined a fire control radar at a Japanese vessel, this is pretty low level harassment.
If something like this could start a shooting match, then there would have been a new one every week in the Mediterranean during the 1970s. This is not so unusual, and it could even be a case of needing the better resolution to get an accurate range - bearing - course - speed, etc. (I don't believe it, but it could be.)
When the Chinese start maneuvering to use the "Rules of the Nautical Road" and Admiralty Law to be priveliged and try to force a collision, then the Prime Minister will have grounds.
Of course, when the Sovs did this to us back then, we complained through diplomatic channels.
there is the fact that the US and Russia didnt have over a 1000 years of hostility between them though.
And there is the fact that many of the aging, decrepit PRC leadership can personally remember the time before the Japanese were sent home.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 06, 2013, 09:57:33 PMI would be more than happy to help draft a strongly worded letter.
Use big red letters
And now this:
http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/07/world/asia/japan-russia-jets/index.html?hpt=hp_t3
Quote
(CNN) -- Japan's military scrambled fighters Thursday after two Russian SU-27 jets entered Japanese airspace off Rishiri Island near the tip of Japan's northernmost Hokkaido Island, according to the country's Defense Ministry.
The Russian jets left Japanese airspace without incident after a little more than a minute, the ministry said.
The incident occurred near territory disputed by Japan and Russia since the end of World War II.
Japanese officials lodged an official protest with Russia over the incident, Japan's Kyodo news service reported.
The Japanese might be getting a little edgy.
Russians do that whenever they are bored and have saved up enough Jet B.
Territory disputed..since the end of World War II? It has been a little longer than that
I think?
Quote from: Longdan on February 07, 2013, 12:27:11 PM
Territory disputed..since the end of World War II? It has been a little longer than that
I think?
An argument can be made it went back to 1905 at least.
IIRC the two had a bit of a tiff right about then, with the Russians' losing custody of the yacht and the beach house.
"Other military experts suggest Beijing has decided to intensify its operations against Japan, a nation whose wartime aggression is remembered across Asia, because confrontations with smaller neighbors in recent years had led to a region-wide diplomatic backlash."The Senkaku/Diaoyu hoopla of late is triggered by China's desire to extricate itself from total regional isolation caused by China's expansive territorial claims against virtually all of its maritime neighbors," said Yu Maochun, an expert on the PLA at the Annapolis, Maryland United States Naval Academy. "
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/06/us-china-japan-navy-idUSBRE9251GU20130306 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/06/us-china-japan-navy-idUSBRE9251GU20130306)
So to cow the smaller countries, China is going after the big regional navy.
Sounds like how Lucky Luciano muscled out the Irish mob in Brooklyn.
Around here someplace there was a post with a discussion of how Japan may be facing an energy shortage soon.
This has some parallels to the 1930s when Japan was short on energy and raw materials. We may see some kind of conflict over those islands in the not-too-distant future.
Quote from: LongBlade on March 07, 2013, 11:13:31 AM
Around here someplace there was a post with a discussion of how Japan may be facing an energy shortage soon.
This has some parallels to the 1930s when Japan was short on energy and raw materials. We may see some kind of conflict over those islands in the not-too-distant future.
I remember something about that after they started shutting down their nuclear energy plants. They are welcome to Canadian oil.
I find myself thinking Australia, a country with a massive solar overheating problem, could become a solar to hydrogen power. They split sea water, ship the hydrogen to Japan. Japan gets clean power which they want. Building the infrastructure for a relatively small country would be easy. All points are fairly close to a coast for resupply. Building new energy tech would be good for their economy. Later, Canada buys their hydrogen tech for oil.
It tightens cooperation between Japan and the British Commonwealth.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 06, 2013, 10:48:10 PM
So to cow the smaller countries, China is going after the big regional navy.
Also, they may generate at least a modicum of goodwill among their neighbors by confronting the former "big bully" on their block.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 07, 2013, 12:26:51 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on March 07, 2013, 11:13:31 AM
Around here someplace there was a post with a discussion of how Japan may be facing an energy shortage soon.
This has some parallels to the 1930s when Japan was short on energy and raw materials. We may see some kind of conflict over those islands in the not-too-distant future.
I remember something about that after they started shutting down their nuclear energy plants. They are welcome to Canadian oil.
I find myself thinking Australia, a country with a massive solar overheating problem, could become a solar to hydrogen power. They split sea water, ship the hydrogen to Japan. Japan gets clean power which they want. Building the infrastructure for a relatively small country would be easy. All points are fairly close to a coast for resupply. Building new energy tech would be good for their economy. Later, Canada buys their hydrogen tech for oil.
It tightens cooperation between Japan and the British Commonwealth.
Sounds a win-win sittuation.