Panama Canal Expansion

[GDS_Starfury]

and china's growth is still pretty much locked in,

o'rly   ::)

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2013/new100813a.htm

In China, growth is projected to decelerate slightly from 7½ percent this year to 7¼ percent in 2014. Policymakers have refrained from stimulating activity amid concerns for financial stability and the need to support a more balanced and sustainable growth path.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/08/business/economy/world-bank-scales-back-east-asia-growth-forecasts.html

The World Bank lowered its growth forecast for large parts of eastern Asia, saying on Monday that the rebalancing of the once red-hot Chinese economy, lower commodity prices and weaker-than-expected exports were holding back expansion in countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and China itself.

what was that about locking in growth?

[GDS_Starfury]

an article from April of this year:

http://www.scmp.com/business/economy/article/1279091/imf-cuts-chinese-growth-projections

The IMF projected China's growth will be 7.8 per cent in 2013, down from an 8 per cent April projection

so in 6 months the projected growth fell from 8% to 7.25%.  thats no bueno Mr Manchuria.

[GDS_Starfury]

http://economy.money.cnn.com/2013/07/12/china-gdp-target/

Chinese finance minister Lou Jiwei was the source of this confusion. Speaking at a press conference in Washington, Lou told reporters on Thursday that China was shooting for economic growth of 7% this year.

Lou's comments are newsworthy because a 7% expansion would be among the worst rates in more than 20 years, and would carry major implications for economies around the world. The comments are extra puzzling because China set an official growth target of 7.5% just a few months ago.

while we here in the US might be sluggish our economy is still pretty deep and robust and the average person makes far more then the average Chinese.  they need to keep expanding to merely survive and keep the peasants from revolting, again, and they cant.  also, as Chinese products become more expensive to fuel their domestic growth the west will stop buying them and turn to other cheaper sources.  if I walk into the Gap right now to buy a shirt the label will say made in Vietnam not made in China.  thats a trend thats going to continue.

[Windigo]

and china's growth is still pretty much locked in,

o'rly   ::)

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2013/new100813a.htm

In China, growth is projected to decelerate slightly from 7½ percent this year to 7¼ percent in 2014. Policymakers have refrained from stimulating activity amid concerns for financial stability and the need to support a more balanced and sustainable growth path.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/08/business/economy/world-bank-scales-back-east-asia-growth-forecasts.html

The World Bank lowered its growth forecast for large parts of eastern Asia, saying on Monday that the rebalancing of the once red-hot Chinese economy, lower commodity prices and weaker-than-expected exports were holding back expansion in countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and China itself.

what was that about locking in growth?

7% growth is not good enough for you?.... like I said, China's internal economy is just really starting to get rolling - as an example they really have no internal tourism...

and I did say it just has to be double the US'.... when was the last time the US had 3% growth

[GDS_Starfury]

7% isnt good enough for them by their own admission and the projections have fallen over the course of the year.  its also not very good for foreign investors looking to place their money in growth markets.

[GDS_Starfury]

because whats really needed is a graph!



now that was done in December of last year Windy and the 2013 rate of growth is less then 7.5%.
that mean the shiny red line is doing what?
thats right, its going down.  very good Windy, you get a silver star.

heres another graph Windy.  notice what commodities are going down and which are going up:



I bet those growing gas prices are going slow something down.  guess what that is?

[Windigo]

all very interesting, but where does it show the part about GDP growth of the US going up to and surpassing 3.5 % to be half of the 7% Chinese growth rate...

at 7% growth, the economy doubles every ten years, the US's at 2% means roughly every 35 years to double.
Since china's economy is about 1/2 the size of the US economy currently, it'll be damn close in size in about 15-20 years (giving you a benefit of a doubt +/- a percent either way)

20 years is not that long... its 5 election cycles for you guys.... you think someone is going to come along and wave a magic fairy wand and get the economy going past 2-3%? Not with the quantitative hangover coming your way....

I think there's a greater chance that China's economic growth will slide below 7% before yours rises to 3.5%

[GDS_Starfury]

again you make the mistake of thinking everything else will be stagnant.
youre also ignoring that China is still developing so its growth is to be expected as is its slowdown.

I think there's a greater chance that China's economic growth will slide below 7% before yours rises to 3.5%

1. in absolutes thats still a lot more money then China has.
2. the US and Europe account for roughly 50% of Chinas exports.  if our economy is still creeping along we'll be buying less and less Chinese crap thereby further slowing down their growth.

[OJsDad]

From today's Findlay Courier

NORTH BALTIMORE (OH) -- In a visit Wednesday to the CSX railyard in North Baltimore, Vice President Joe Biden linked federal spending to improve rail and other public works with growth in manufacturing jobs.

Federally-funded upgrades since 2009 to rail, roads, bridges and ports have helped create 500,000 new manufacturing jobs nationwide and 45,000 in Ohio, he said. The upgrades reduce companies' transportation costs and increase exports.

"Manufacturers locate where they can operate, where they can get products to market safely, efficiently, more cheaply. That's where they go," Biden said.

It was not only lower wages elsewhere that caused some companies to leave the United States, Biden said. It was better rail, ports and other infrastructure, he said. Now that U.S. infrastucture has improved, jobs are returning, he said.

"We're beginning to move from outsourcing to insourcing. Ohio is back. America is back," Biden said. "I promise you, we will be the 21st century manufacturing center of the world."

"We're just getting started, man. (China and other countries) have awakened a giant. They have awakened us," he said. "They have awakened this country, and we're ready to compete."

The CSX railyard, which Biden toured, employs nearly 300. Cranes at the CSX railyard, which opened in early 2011, load hundreds of containers onto 30 trains a day.

Much of the cargo is now double-stacked on railroad cars. Federal funding of rail and bridge upgrades and tunnel heightening enables the double-stacking, which makes transportation cheaper and more efficient.

"It used to take over a week for a Whirlpool dishwasher to get off the floor of a factory here and ... to port. Now it takes two to three days," Biden said. "That means profit for Whirlpool. That means the (2,000) jobs in the Findlay plant are going to continue because they are going to continue to make money."

Biden said the Obama administration is proposing $50 billion more in repairs to railroads, bridges, dams, ports and airports. It would create 650,000 new "good-paying" jobs, he said.

Continued improvements to rail, bridges, roads and other public works will spur more jobs growth when an expansion of the Panama Canal is completed in 2015, he said. The canal expansion will enable larger ships, carrying more cargo, to transit the canal. Two-thirds of ships transiting the canal start or arrive at the U.S., he said. So when the canal is expanded, the U.S. will be able to double its exports and do it more cheaply if its own infrastructure is improved, Biden said.

"It's about how you get product cheaply from manufacturers, all the way from Memphis to Findlay, how do you get those products to the ships to be able to be exported and do it economically?" he said. "This is the inland version of the widening of the Panama Canal, connecting the great manufacturing centers in the Midwest with ports in the East Coast, creating jobs in places like North Baltimore and in Baltimore, Toledo and in Philadelphia, Findlay and in Charleston, S.C."

"It's helping spark a revitalization of manufacturing in what has historically been the heart of manufacturing in the world, right where we are now," Biden said. "This historically has been the heartbeat of manufacturing in the world. This means jobs coming home ... good-paying jobs."

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

because whats really needed is a graph!



now that was done in December of last year Windy and the 2013 rate of growth is less then 7.5%.
that mean the shiny red line is doing what?
thats right, its going down.  very good Windy, you get a silver star.

heres another graph Windy.  notice what commodities are going down and which are going up:



I bet those growing gas prices are going slow something down.  guess what that is?

What's up with the condescending tone? Do you really think that makes your argument more convincing?

[GDS_Starfury]

its me talking to Windy dont read into it.   :)

exhibit A:

[OJsDad]

It sounds like a Nicaragua Canal has been proposed and studied as long as the Panama Canal and never been built.  Frankly it sounds like another left wing ding bats desperate grasp at glory. 

If, however, shipping growth continues, then it may be needed. 

[endfire79]

its me talking to Windy dont read into it.   :)

exhibit A:

Some pals of mine had a different, yet similar sounding argument over a game of risk a few years ago.  It all could have been just a case of 'Ukraine is weak', but it just didn't end there.  Eventually someone wasn't happy and the board got flipped, and one guy ended in the hospital with a busted collar bone.  Good times. 

[Windigo]

again you make the mistake of thinking everything else will be stagnant.
youre also ignoring that China is still developing so its growth is to be expected as is its slowdown.

I think there's a greater chance that China's economic growth will slide below 7% before yours rises to 3.5%

1. in absolutes thats still a lot more money then China has.
2. the US and Europe account for roughly 50% of Chinas exports.  if our economy is still creeping along we'll be buying less and less Chinese crap thereby further slowing down their growth.

that's why I said 20 years... China's double double will match your 2-3 percent

and China will become less dependent on exports for growth as time goes forward too

[airboy]

Forecasting economic futures is next to impossible. 
That being said, I have one critical observation for Chinese economic growth.

In the history of man, there has never been an economy with sustained rapid growth with a falling population.
China's population is starting to decline due to the one child policy and the intentional killing of female infants.

I could be wrong, but given what I know about long term economic growth the Chinese will start slowing pretty soon.