News from Ukraine Conflict

[GDS_Starfury]

the black box wont have anything useful on it.  these arent aircraft with military electronic suites so they would never even know that they were lit up with either tracking or engagement radar.  their first indication would have been the warhead detonating.  if it had been an El Al flight there would have been lots of info and those aircraft carry ECM and active countermeasures like chaff and flares.

[Windigo]

Yskonyn,
I take your point. I saw the video (looks like right engine was hit) and yes it appears that after an initial very steep descent, the plane's dive was shallower. Whether that was the flight crew or the planes computer attempting to recover is irrelevant to the fact the cabin looks intact.... it would have been a horrifying last amount of time on Earth.

RIP innocent victims.

[Yskonyn]

the black box wont have anything useful on it.  these arent aircraft with military electronic suites so they would never even know that they were lit up with either tracking or engagement radar.  their first indication would have been the warhead detonating.  if it had been an El Al flight there would have been lots of info and those aircraft carry ECM and active countermeasures like chaff and flares.

It doesn't contain any useful information about which platform was indeed used and where the rocket had been launched from geographically. But it probably will contain useful indirect data to confirm it was hit by a rocket and confirming it was a Ground to Air kill and in which state the aircraft was after being hit and wether the crew was still alive or not. That's useful too, just not military useful.

But the military aspect of this can probably be confirmed in various other ways you wouldn't rely on a blackbox for anyway.

Then there is all kinds of internal data for Boeing that can possibly be used in various ways in their factories ( research, structural Loads, stress, etc), research centers and the like.

[GDS_Starfury]

in this day and age Im somewhat surprised that more international carriers dont have a basic minimum of active and passive defences.

[Yskonyn]

Well, if it turns out that it was an accident afterall it comes down to panic reaction to establish measures that will make most airliners go bankrupt.
Its already a sector where financial times are hard.

Besides, what if you have a RWR on a jetliner? Once it starts to yell its too late and infrared missiles are undetectable.

What we should look at more closely is mitigating risk over commercial demands. If a region has unrest, stop flying there.
At this time many airlines rely on a security network for intelligence where it is unclear wether commercial factors are paramount instead of safety.

I don't claim commerce wins here. But I do claim that its always a fine line to be walked for an airline between commerce and safety as a function of chance.

[GDS_Starfury]

when a 777 costs $320 million whats another 3 or 4 for an ecm suite?  its like buying a car and saying fuck it, put in the great stereo.

[endfire79]

What we should look at more closely is mitigating risk over commercial demands. If a region has unrest, stop flying there.

+1

[Staggerwing]

The recorders may not provide any direct useful info as to who fired but the timing of events could help determine, in conjunction with other sigint sources, where the missile most likely came from or at least narrow it down, based on where the plane was first struck, probable flight time of the missile, and final landing site. It may even help to determine where some missile debris might have fallen right after impact, potentially providing more physical proof.

[Centurion40]

Me and my wife are still waiting on confirmation of colleagues of us being on board. .

Yikes.

[mirth]

I wouldn't be surprised if we had some kind of ELINT coverage of the area that picked up the FC radar.

[Centurion40]

http://www.break.com/article/malaysia-flight-17-facebook-post-about-disappearance-2665340

Again, yikes.

[Centurion40]

I wouldn't be surprised if we had some kind of ELINT coverage of the area that picked up the FC radar.

Yep.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/18/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-airlines-crash/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

The "working theory" in the U.S. intelligence community is that the Russian military supplied a Buk surface-to-air missile system to pro- Russian rebels, a senior defense official told CNN. The official would not discuss the specific intelligence that is leading to this assessment. U.S. intelligence and military analysts are also scrutinizing video apparently showing a Buk system being driven back across the Russian border after Thursday's crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, the official said.

[Yskonyn]

when a 777 costs $320 million whats another 3 or 4 for an ecm suite?  its like buying a car and saying fuck it, put in the great stereo.

Ok... and what about all the aircraft already in service? That's a bill that's hard to swallow, me thinks.

[GDS_Starfury]

Oh no doubt.  A refit probably vost 3 times as much. But you dont need it on every airframe.

[BanzaiCat]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing and Airbus already push this package for their larger airframes (777 and 380 respectively) that do the long-haul routes. It's up to the airlines as to whether they want to buy it or not. I'd imagine some of them will start looking at lot more closely at these for future purchases.

Admittedly I've only had time to read bits and pieces here and there about this, but one piece was interesting that said the plane was 35 miles from the border...it failed to say which side it was on, and whether or not it was following an international air route. Not that this would matter much to the Russian idiots that fired it, apparently.