News from Ukraine Conflict

[Staggerwing]

Pretty low. That aint yer grandad's Bundeswehr she's got to work with. It's pretty tiny compared to what it was in it's heyday. Germany has switched from being a military powerhouse to being an economic one.

[Atilla60]

And he's not wrong to do so. There's plenty of other people that *could* take action but are, thus far, failing to do so.  I'd they lack the capability, well... that's a hard way to learn that lesson but it needs to be learned.

+1

[Atilla60]

What are the chances of Merkel acting alone?

I'd say zero

A) She's *the* European leader who's got the most to lose
B) As a EU member, Germany is restricted by Brussels.
C) Even if she wanted to, military interventions doesn't sit well with the majority of Germans.

[jejo68]

Pretty low. That aint yer grandad's Bundeswehr she's got to work with. It's pretty tiny compared to what it was in it's heyday. Germany has switched from being a military powerhouse to being an economic one.

Its still counted amongst the top 10 military strength in the World so not so tiny.

[Staggerwing]

In what category? I'd never doubt the German military's professionalism but it's listed as number 30 in active military personnel on Globalfirepower.com, with 183,000 service personnel as compared to Russia's 766,000, and only 400 tanks vs Russia's 15,500. Artillery, 185 v. approx. 10,000. Unit for unit the Germans might outmatch the Russians by a wide margin but overall the numbers are not in their favor as far as a conventional land war goes.

[bayonetbrant]

one key part of that question is where all those troops are. The Russians might have a whole lot more, but where are they? The guys in Vladivostok aren't really in position to influence events in Ukraine right now.  Pretty much everyone the Germans have are pretty close to relative to any Russian unit stationed east of the Ural Mountains

[Staggerwing]

That's true. The German military benefits from a number of logistical advantages that would allow it to get a greater percentage of it's troops to the fight (assuming it's only as far as Ukraine) in a shorter time so if we are talking about a few skirmishes Germany has the advantage. However, give Russia a few weeks and it will be able to gain tactical air superiority with it's much larger tactical air power. This will allow them to move more units into the battlefield without fear of being shot up by the German tactical air units. German AA units may take out many of the Russian aircraft but the Russians are probably not as squeamish about losing them as the Western nations are. The only way Germany can take on Russia is with Full NATO air power overhead. Once you throw that into the mix you might as well bring in the rest of NATO as well.

[bayonetbrant]

all that said, there's no PR advantage nearly as big as that which the Russians will gain if the Germans invade territory the Russians say is their's. The entire nation will flock to Putin as soon as one German crosses that border. Doesn't matter how right the Germans are. I know it; you know it; everybody else knows it

[panzerde]

all that said, there's no PR advantage nearly as big as that which the Russians will gain if the Germans invade territory the Russians say is their's. The entire nation will flock to Putin as soon as one German crosses that border. Doesn't matter how right the Germans are. I know it; you know it; everybody else knows it

+1. There's no way we'll see German armor outside of Kiev anytime soon, even with NATO participation. Having said that, I doubt we'll see NATO forces in Ukraine no matter what, regardless of who sits in the White House. This is going to be economic and digital.

[TheCommandTent]

I would rather not see a shooting war but at some point you would think the international community is going to have to stop "speaking softly" and start using the "big stick."  Unless you would consider economic sanctions the "big stick."

So I guess my questions would be what needs to happen or how far does the world let Putin go before the only option is military in nature?

[OJsDad]

I would rather not see a shooting war but at some point you would think the international community is going to have to stop "speaking softly" and start using the "big stick."  Unless you would consider economic sanctions the "big stick."

So I guess my questions would be what needs to happen or how far does the world let Putin go before the only option is military in nature?

Lets see, he's taken parts of Georgia and Ukraine already.  Now he wants more Ukraine. 

In 1936 if the French had stood up to Hitler when he sent troops into the Rhineland, then perhaps things would have turned out very different.  But today the west has the same question that France and England did in the '30's, "Whats Putin's end game.  What is his ultimate goal."  Without knowing that and what the west is willing to give up to allow him to have it, it's very hard to decide where to draw that line.

[OJsDad]

You guys really want to start a shooting war with Russia?  Sanctions are really beginning to hurt and will be more effective than starting a land war where the last successful invader were the mongols

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/08/28/western-sanctions-and-rising-debts-are-already-strangling-the-russian-economy/

Shooting first has worked out so well for the US in the past decade

Con

And yet, Russia has gotten more aggressive since the news has been reporting the impact the economic sanctions are having.  So are they really working, or is Putin deciding he cannot wait any longer.

[Gusington]

Great posts above. What is Putin's end game? To restore part of the USSR, or all of it?

Sanctions seem to play into Putin's moves as trade amongst New Russian partners increases as it falls with the West. 

There's also some strange mumblings coming from what I thought were Western partners, like Hungary. I don't have any current links but in the last month I've seen a couple of Reuters stories on how pro-Russian Hungary's government has come. Not sure if any other central European nations are doing the same thing.

Weird.

[Staggerwing]

Speaking of Russian friends, Serbia's been kinda quiet lately.  ???

[Gusington]

^I can imagine Serbia quietly cheering the Russians on.