News from Ukraine Conflict

[Steelgrave]

Got it, LB. Of course Reagan narrowly lost the Republican nomination to Jerry Ford in 1976. After the '76 loss a lot of die-hard Reagan supporters (myself included) were broken hearted, thinking Ronnie would never be President because he would be too old in four more years (ha!). I remember the nomination fight for the next election was pretty open at first, but Reagan took control early and then, of course, went on to serve 8 years as President.  I'm not looking for the next Reagan, Ronnie was a once in a lifetime leader. But I'll be on board with the guy (or gal) who shows leadership, even if we don't agree on every political point.

Since this is a thread about the Ukraine Conflict....Putin is a tough nut, I'll give him that. But I don't think he would be quite as adventurous if he respected the American President more. Putin is taking advantage of American weakness as much as anything. It's to our shame that we have allowed things to deteriorate to the point that tyrants feel free to do as they wish.

And Con, we all have our opinions. I couldn't possibly disagree with yours more, both about Reagan and Obama, so let's keep it at that.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

In marketing there is a saying "the reptilian always wins." It is referring to the primitive reptilian part of the brain which ignores higher faculty judgement. Reagan had slick hair, a winning smile, easy going confidence in his speeches. When people see that confidence they see winner. The topic is irrelevant. I saw the same thing at the time. It was not until after the whole contra thing I decided to try to re-evaluate objectively.

Putin is keeping the war low intensity to try to keep it under control. He will win a war of attrition against Ukraine. Ukraine will never take the war to Russia so he has nothing to lose. He will build nationalism, he will use it to consolidate permanent power, he will repeat with other neighbors.

The flaw IMO is that none of it is relevant to the success of Russia. Quite the contrary. Making Russia a rival again to the US and NATO is a loser strategy.

[Steelgrave]

That's borderline insulting, Mr. Bigglesworth, and sounds very much like the media/left wing attempts to portray Reagan as a failed actor playing at the Presidency. You are right, however...the topic is irrelevant and doesn't really belong on this thread. The world is stuck with the hand we dealt them when we elected (and somehow reelected) Mr. Obama. Putin is playing in the big leagues while everyone else is trying to decide who the players should be. Not a good time to be on their border.

[Con]

Disagreement is OK but misunderstanding is a not.  My point is that presidents make bad choices and good ones let history decide which one it will be and not have a knee reaction because you dislike someone.

IMO a Reagan/Putin matchup would be extremely dangerous in todays world because of the lack of understanding and respect both sides would have for each other and the ability to bluster and pose would almost certainly lead to an armed conflict from which there are no winners only more US soldiers killed in an Eastern European conflict.

Con 

[LongBlade]

You could be right, Con, but I wonder. Putin seems to have found his aggression at the precise moment when Obama was trying to withdraw at every opportunity from the world stage.

One wonders how he might have reacted if confronted with strength.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Steelgrave,

We all fall for it, even PhD experts who study it. Read "Influence". The top marketers get paid millions to influence us in many ways. Lots of hard nosed business people feel they are earning the money.

[Steelgrave]

You could be right, Con, but I wonder. Putin seems to have found his aggression at the precise moment when Obama was trying to withdraw at every opportunity from the world stage.

One wonders how he might have reacted if confronted with strength.

You know, my entire high school experience changed for the better the day I decked the school bully in gym class. I think Putin is gonna be Putin, but part of being Putin involves playing the bully and taking lunch money from the kids who can't fight back. There is a perceived leadership vacuum which Putin is all too happy to take advantage of. One might question if the Chinese would be quite so adventurous without the presence of the same vacuum.

[Steelgrave]

Steelgrave,

We all fall for it, even PhD experts who study it. Read "Influence". The top marketers get paid millions to influence us in many ways. Lots of hard nosed business people feel they are earning the money.

I call bs on the whole "fall for it" line. You might as well be patting our arms and "tut tutting" in sympathy. Cut it out. I don't mythologize Reagan, but I have followed politics since I was a child and I regard him as the greatest President of my lifetime. If you disagree, fine. But don't attempt to marginalize people who have a different opinion than yours by suggesting we "fell for it" or it was the "slick hair". This is not the Religion and Politics thread, if you want to start a fight, take it over there.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

It's a valid view. I think we all discussed it at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. If it was a 2 party zero sum game, countering with strength would be fine. It is greatly complicated by several big powers that would move to capitalize on a NATO Russia war.

[bayonetbrant]

You know, my entire high school experience changed for the better the day I decked the school bully in gym class.

That was the class between "cuneiform" and "chariot repair" right?  ;)

Seriously, though, if that bully had fought back, it would've only been your nose bloodied.  If someone miscalculates their wing at Putin, there's a lot more blood than a bloody nose.

[Steelgrave]

You know, my entire high school experience changed for the better the day I decked the school bully in gym class.

That was the class between "cuneiform" and "chariot repair" right?  ;)

Seriously, though, if that bully had fought back, it would've only been your nose bloodied.  If someone miscalculates their wing at Putin, there's a lot more blood than a bloody nose.

Agreed. Yet much of international politics revolves around not miscalculating your opponents response, no? In our case, Putin seems to have gotten it right on.

And I saw what you did there, smartass.   8)

[Con]

Let's hope that foreign policy is not decided by schoolyard experiences

I just think today's world is as different to the Cold War politically economically racially and technically as post WWI was to those nations.

IMO it's very hard to say that one leader would have been better than another in this age because it doesn't take into account the thirty years of events globally that got us here.   How would The Cold War have gone if Russia held 8% of the US public debt (same amount as China)?  How much freedom would a president have to make deals when they are endlessly broadcast dissected and debated by all political spectrums on a 24 hour instant so called expert analysis news cycle. In some ways the world was a simpler place thirty years ago and that gave us actually more leverage and ironically freedom

Con

[Steelgrave]

I just think today's world is as different to the Cold War politically economically racially and technically as post WWI was to those nations.
Con

That I agree with. And even with Russia taking advantage of current circumstances, I have a difficult time envisioning a new Cold War. The world is inter-connected economically in ways which were unimaginable thirty years ago.

[Con]

Meanwhile the Russian economy continues to crater. Initially I thought that this was going to force Russia to its knees but now I am getting concerns that due to the irrationality of Putin that it might end up pushing Russia into a forlorn war of desperation.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/annaborshchevskaya/2014/11/06/what-will-happen-to-putins-approval-ratings-once-russias-economy-plumments/

Con

[GDS_Starfury]

ah the old lets have a war to keep domestic troubles ignored trick.