News from Ukraine Conflict

[Windigo]

His out is ridiculously obvious my grognard friends. He simply takes some major oil supply infrastructure out of the equation. Whose gets taken out and where are questions I haven't looked at. How?... easy peasy... *cough* some terrorist cell gets in and blows the shit up.

A few key pieces of oil supply infrastructure gone off the chess board because of terrorist activity and Voila! oil price rebound.

[GDS_Starfury]

the Saudis and OPEC told him to fuck off already so that could be interesting.

[Nefaro]

its Russia.  theres always a plan to remove the leadership.

At the same time... It's Russia.  One of the countries where a totalitarian dictator is worshipped as a hero and gets little internal criticism when he changes the laws to make sure he & his cronies run the place for life, with an iron fist. 

Such self-blinding nationalism would be foreign to most of us.  If the prez even began to pull the same shit, there would be a huge uproar and a reckoning.  Putin's habits have been shockingly reminiscent of Hitler's pre-war actions and it's ironic that he's using the same 'fell from superpower grace' nationalist butt-hurt feelings with Russians that worked so well with 1930s German citizens.  From imprisoning or killing the few brave enough to cry a warning at home, all the way down to excuses of liberating their own nationalist minorities in foreign countries as a reason for military involvement & annexation. 

History often repeats itself, huh? 

[Gusington]

Damn right. There are many articles and discussions on comparing Russia's 2014 with a previous year in German history, but or me it is feeling a lot like what I expect 1936 to have felt like. It's like Putin is taking Hitler's Mein Kampf as his gospel.

[BanzaiCat]

Just to inject this little bit - my boss's boss stated that the reason for the price plummet in oil was because the Saudis were seeing how our (the U.S.) oil production was starting to become a major player in the world market, so they decided to flood the market with oil.

I'm not sure how much truth there is to that, but he knows a lot more about our world operations than I do.

[bayonetbrant]

So is Ukraine the Rhineland of 2014?

[BanzaiCat]

^ A good comparison, but this time, the invaders are going to get a bloody nose and then slink back to their bases with their tails between their legs.

At least I hope that's what happens should they choose that route.

I can't imagine this playing out any other way than the Russian Mafia offing Putin. Shades of Kennedy, should you believe the Mob had anything to do with that.

[endfire79]

Just to inject this little bit - my boss's boss stated that the reason for the price plummet in oil was because the Saudis were seeing how our (the U.S.) oil production was starting to become a major player in the world market, so they decided to flood the market with oil.

I'm not sure how much truth there is to that, but he knows a lot more about our world operations than I do.

I've heard similar.  I would defer to someone who knows about oil extraction and methods, but how hard is it to extract oil in the Middle East vs finding other methods like shale gas (fracking) etc?   Just a theory - maybe all this just lowers the interest in fracking (and other methods), and makes more expensive (expensive if you lower the cost of oil). One competitor trying to make their product more viable? 

[GDS_Starfury]

or maybe there have been some backroom dealings between the US and OPEC as part of the sanctions against Russia.  Im not into conspiracy theories but Im sure there are more levels to this then we get to know about.

[LongBlade]

Just to inject this little bit - my boss's boss stated that the reason for the price plummet in oil was because the Saudis were seeing how our (the U.S.) oil production was starting to become a major player in the world market, so they decided to flood the market with oil.

I'm not sure how much truth there is to that, but he knows a lot more about our world operations than I do.

I have heard that, too.

It's a kind of twofer. US oil production has a higher cost basis because our shale oil is costlier to drill for and refine. However, I've heard that once the drilling has started it's probably not going to stop.

Regardless, the US consumer suddenly has a lot more cash in their pocket. It's a big win for us economically.

[Gusington]

Ukraine could be kinda sorta Rhinelandish. The real meat of the matter is how much like Chamberlain the West will be.

[Nefaro]

Just to inject this little bit - my boss's boss stated that the reason for the price plummet in oil was because the Saudis were seeing how our (the U.S.) oil production was starting to become a major player in the world market, so they decided to flood the market with oil.

I'm not sure how much truth there is to that, but he knows a lot more about our world operations than I do.

I have heard that, too.

It's a kind of twofer. US oil production has a higher cost basis because our shale oil is costlier to drill for and refine. However, I've heard that once the drilling has started it's probably not going to stop.

Regardless, the US consumer suddenly has a lot more cash in their pocket. It's a big win for us economically.

I've read the same.

It'll assuredly bounce back up so may as well enjoy the fruits of market competition.

[Staggerwing]

So is Ukraine the Rhineland of 2014?

More like 1938 Czechoslovakia, with the breakaway eastern areas it's Sudetenland. IIRC, the Nazis infiltrated lots of agitators over the border into the Sudetenland where they posed as local ethnic German Czechs and started stirring up the locals and claiming repression by the Prague gov't.

[Gusington]

^I'd say that 2014 Ukraine is more violent, though.

[GDS_Starfury]

then you forget our shared history.