News from Ukraine Conflict

[Gusington]

It appears pretty clear that no country in the West is going to come to the aid of Ukraine. And to be honest I am not so sure if that's a bad thing. I empathize with the Ukrainians but this is their fight. One could argue it is Ukraine today, and Estonia or some other outpost tomorrow. And even then I don't know if it would be our fight yet. When Russians cross into Poland...then, maybe, it will be our collective fight.

This does expose NATO as a paper tiger, though. And that's what Russia wants. In some ways this is like the Cold War, except that Russia is starting from a position of increased weakness when compared to, say, 1980. The Soviet Union was a global power while in reality Russia in 2015 is just a strong regional power.

I don't know...after interventions around the world for 100 years, where has it gotten the US and the UK? Are we any better off as nations than we were before WWI? Maybe it's time to stop the insanity and go isolationist for a little while. The thing with that idea is that every time we nudge even slightly closer to isolation, the world barges in again.

Just thinking out loud here.

[GDS_Starfury]

how does it expose NATO as a paper tiger when the Ukraine isnt a NATO member nor in the historic sphere of influence of Western Europe?

[Gusington]

Ukraine is a test, like Crimea. Russia sees that the West is busy elsewhere. How quick would we close ranks if Estonia was threatened? Seriously now. Which NATO member would be first to defend Estonia? Especially with a POTUS who has drawn lines in the sand before, and retreated behind them. Unless there was something truly vital at stake I can't see NATO going to war over Estonia, even with Estonia as a member. It would become quite an embarrassing situation and that is exactly what Russia is trying to get from this whole mess.

[Atilla60]

I can't see NATO going to war over Estonia, even with Estonia as a member. It would become quite an embarrassing situation and that is exactly what Russia is trying to get from this whole mess.

IMO If a NATO member, Estonia or any other, is attacked and invokes the musketeer article. We have no choice. That is, provided we want to keep the alliance together.

[Gusington]

I agree, and that's kind of my point...how strong is the collective will to keep the alliance together?

[GDS_Starfury]

Seems to have been fairly strong with Afghanistan so i think Estonia is covered.

[Gusington]

Afghanistan isn't even a country for all intents and purposes.

[GDS_Starfury]

Thanks for underlining my point.

[Gusington]

Taking on Russia would not be the same as chasing down the Taliban in Afghanistan.

[Atilla60]

I agree, and that's kind of my point...how strong is the collective will to keep the alliance together?

I've been asking myself that question.
So far NATO assets have been deployed in the Baltics and it was done without internal fuss.... Well, not too much anyway.
I hope that signifies a will to, at least, stand behind a NATO member.
I Want to believe that.

[GDS_Starfury]

I do. 
NATO doesnt have to make a fuss.
Russia gas to make a fuss.

[Atilla60]

I do. 
NATO doesnt have to make a fuss.
Russia gas to make a fuss.

And basically, that's all they have.

[Gusington]

Is that pun intentional or not?

[GDS_Starfury]

Actually, no it wasnt...  was supposed to be "has to".

[Airborne Rifles]

I think maintaining the integrity of NATO is actually something people on both sides of the Atlantic are willing to fight for in this newly scary world. Meaning Estonia would be on the table as a flashpoint for WWIII.