News from Ukraine Conflict

[OJsDad]

I would like to agree with you Airborne, but I'm not sure.  I think the Europeans are waking up to the threats of just not Russia, but radial Islam, especially after the Paris attacks.  What I really fear, is that the US will not stand strong with the rest of NATO. 

[Gusington]

^I would like to scream 'that's crazy talk' but I don't know how crazy it really is.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

He might turn and say "No brothers are in danger, what's your problem!"

[OJsDad]

^I would like to scream 'that's crazy talk' but I don't know how crazy it really is.

My old screen name was Nuts!

[OJsDad]

A thought just occurred to me.  If Putin wants all of Ukraine, then NATO doesn't have to oppose him openly.  They could just support an insurgency that could bleed Russia dry both in troops and money, especially if the sanctions stay in place and Putin cannot get around them. 

[GDS_Starfury]

proxy wars of the Cold War part 2.
now in 24 hour streaming HD.

[Airborne Rifles]

European NATO has spent the last thirteen years in Afghanistan proving that they at least are committed to the Alliance.

[GDS_Starfury]

thats what I said!

[Airborne Rifles]

But I used more words.

[OJsDad]

Putin will want to complete his goals in Ukraine this year, then begin setting the stage for the Baltics, if he really wants any or all of them, for after the 2016 election.  If an Obama clone is elected, then I think he can take them at a time of his choosing.  If anyone to the right of Obama then he will want to grab them after the election and before the new president can take office 

If he grabs during the election, especially a close one, then Obama will act, with the support the Dem candidate, to show Dems are strong on foreign affairs and to try and get votes.

[GDS_Starfury]

there is ZERO chance of an obama clone being elected.
even if its Hillary we'll see a very different foreign policy.

[Staggerwing]

The US owes the rest of Nato some backup. The only time Article 5 (paraphrase: "An attack on one is an attack on all") has ever been implemented is after 9-11. NATO aircraft help secure US airspace for weeks, racking up over 4000 hours of flight time, until the US felt secure enough to cut the Nato crews loose. After that a number of Nato countries went into Afghanistan to support the US effort there, with Nato eventually even assuming overall command. Many of these countries took a big hit to their defence budgets just to support the alliance with very little recognition by the American public or elected officials (red and blue) as thanks.

[LongBlade]

I think maintaining the integrity of NATO is actually something people on both sides of the Atlantic are willing to fight for in this newly scary world. Meaning Estonia would be on the table as a flashpoint for WWIII.

I'm not really up to speed on what's going on over there, but from my perspective it seems like most of Russia's actions these days have been motivated by domestic issues. The Ukrainian conflict is giving them a distraction from a rapidly collapsing economy, and before the economy collapsed it was to give them something to think about besides a kleptocracy.

I agree NATO seems to be reawakening.

I sincerely doubt Russia will attempt to directly confront NATO. Russia knows it will lose and Putin has too much to lose if the news gets bad, as it inevitably would.

No, Putin will whittle away at the periphery of NATO in places where it knows it has the advantage and can tout the victories in the news.

[GDS_Starfury]

NATO is solid. 

[Staggerwing]

there is ZERO chance of an obama clone being elected.
even if its Hillary we'll see a very different foreign policy.

True. Hillary is not Obama. Regardless of anything else folks might think of her, I think she likes a good fight. Putin should take notice, or not at his own peril.