News from Ukraine Conflict

[GDS_Starfury]

I just dont see a Russian army getting through a Polish/German/US force. 
and I dont see the Russian army resisting one on the attack either.

[LongBlade]

NATO is solid.

Meh. I'm not so sure.

They can get solid, and are certainly in better shape than the Russians.

Even worse is the political leadership, though as I said, the tide seems to be turning.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Ukraine is a test, like Crimea. Russia sees that the West is busy elsewhere. How quick would we close ranks if Estonia was threatened? Seriously now. Which NATO member would be first to defend Estonia? Especially with a POTUS who has drawn lines in the sand before, and retreated behind them. Unless there was something truly vital at stake I can't see NATO going to war over Estonia, even with Estonia as a member. It would become quite an embarrassing situation and that is exactly what Russia is trying to get from this whole mess.

Canadian hornets have been patrolling the Baltic states for weeks. UK planes as well iirc.

If it comes, I bet we will all step forward. NATO will hold together no problem.

[LongBlade]

I just dont see a Russian army getting through a Polish/German/US force. 
and I dont see the Russian army resisting one on the attack either.

I think we're sorta saying the same thing.

I don't think NATO is prepared for much of a large scale conflict, but even on a bad day NATO will wipe the mat with Russia.

[GDS_Starfury]

NATO is running exercises and ops all of the time.  we've been in active combat for over a decade in a region that way the hell away from Europe. 
for something on the doorstep... yeah.  its good.

[OJsDad]

I hope you guys are right, and I think you are, about the US standing strong with NATO  If it doesn't, then no one will trust us again for a long time.  And that would mean the end of Taiwan and South Korea, as both the Chinese and Norks would not fear the US getting involved in those conflicts. 

[GDS_Starfury]

[Gusington]

^It's a trap!

Afghanistan tested the will of NATO in ways it has never been tested before. Can we call what happened in Afghanistan a victory? I don't know. A war with Russia would be tougher. I know that the West has the technological edge in every area but still...Russia is not Afghanistan and Eastern Europe is Russia's traditional sphere of influence.

Should we even be mucking around there in the first place?

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

It depends on if the taking of Ukraine will be seen by other regimes as a first domino, with the next step being those that do not take, will be behind.

Spheres of influence are less important than border integrity. If Russia wants to influence, they could pick more productive ways.

[Centurion40]

I would like to agree with you Airborne, but I'm not sure.  I think the Europeans are waking up to the threats of just not Russia, but radial Islam, especially after the Paris attacks.  What I really fear, is that the US will not stand strong with the rest of NATO.

So it could be in Russian interests to stir-up Islamic inspired insurrection in Western Europe.

[Gusington]

But what about Chechnya?

And to the integrity of the borders...the Ukrainian border with Russia was virtually obliterated by artillery months ago.

[Centurion40]

But what about Chechnya?

And to the integrity of the borders...the Ukrainian border with Russia was virtually obliterated by artillery months ago.

Yeah, it's all FUBAR, or nearly FUBAR.

I'd like to know what Putin's end goal actually is.  Does he need a new nationalist "Soviet" Empire?  Does he need a new Warsaw Pact as a buffer against the fear of Germany?  Knowing all of this would really help me form an opinion as to what to do.

My current thinking remains: "let the Russkies have Eastern Ukraine, then draw a line.  Let Putie know that Western Ukraine and the Baltic state have the right to self-determination, allies will be defended by the full might of the alliance.  Then start constructing permanent NATO training bases in Poland & Lithuania."

The Russians should be a natural ally in any conflict with Islamic imperialism.

[bayonetbrant]

Can we call what happened in Afghanistan a victory?

I don't know - did we ever define a mission against which we can compare our relative level of success?

[bayonetbrant]

But what about Chechnya?

Chechnya was a gangster state maquerading as 'freedom fighters' because the Chechens were smart enough to know that the world media would love any narrative that cast the Russians as "bad guys"
They were a kleptocracyt hat put on religious robes for the public while smuggling drugs, weapons, and people all over the place, and successfully holding off a Russian army that didn't want to be there, and were probably thinking "wait a minute - these guys are corrupy money-hungry quasi-legal boozehounds, and that's bad?"

The worst part about Chechnya was that the KLA learned the 'right' lessons on how to succeed against a someone who is already being cast in the public light as a bad person and extend that narrative to your own advantage.  We stayed out of Chechnya and the Russians (mostly) cleaned it up.  We got involved in Kosovo and successfully instilled a criminal gang to run a new country because the people were/should have been running it had been complete and utter assholes on 2 other fronts (Croatia / Bosnia) for the 7 years leading up to it.

[LongBlade]

Can we call what happened in Afghanistan a victory?

I don't know - did we ever define a mission against which we can compare our relative level of success?

No, we didn't. And retreating on a time schedule set up for the enemies' convenience snatched whatever defeat we wanted to avoid from the jaws of whatever "victory" we may have accomplished.