News from Ukraine Conflict

pawelj · February 06, 2015, 08:25:50 AM

Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2015, 06:37:55 PM
Remember LB that the Sudeten crisis was in 1938, just as Nazi war crimes were getting started. IIRC that was also the same year that Hitler was Time's Man of the Year. If Hitler died that year he would probably be remembered like Bismarck...as a "great German" and not a monster.

That's where Putin is at right now in Russia...he's their great savior, consolidating the Russian population the world over. If you're Russian, living in Russia, with little to embrace as far as patriotism...I think it can be intoxicating.

What right did the UK or the US or France have in deciding the fate of Sudeten Germans? Or Austrians? Or Germans in the Saar basin? Or Germans anywhere? Would it not be the same as the UK or France intervening in the US Civil War? Unwelcome meddling?

The Russians do not belong in Ukraine. But NATO certainly does not belong there either. And I say that having Eastern European [and Ukrainian] ancestry and some sort of mental connection to the place.

I hope that I am not coming across as a Russophile or a Russian apologist because I am not either. I just believe that going to war over Ukraine (from the US perspective) would be a [potentially very costly] mistake.

Short of a revolution in Russia that will sweep away this criminal Russian regime, I think we are unfortunately going towards direct clash with Russia.
The question now is: do you want Ukrainian resources and manpower on our side or whats left of it on the Russian side, when that time comes?
France and Britain paid dearly for letting Germany take Czechoslovakia in 1938-39. They created the whip for their own back in 1940 as Germany were able to equip 2 extra Panzer divisions with Czech tanks, which were better then most of the German stuff at the time. Just as the invasion of Kuwait, this must not stand.

Gusington · February 06, 2015, 08:59:23 AM

I'm still not convinced that US intervention is justified. Western European intervention....yes. But not US. Not yet.

pawelj · February 06, 2015, 09:13:02 AM

Quote from: pawelj on February 06, 2015, 08:25:50 AM

Short of a revolution in Russia that will sweep away this criminal Russian regime, I think we are unfortunately going towards direct clash with Russia.

I wrote this wrong. It should be: "Short of a revolution in Russia that will sweep away this criminal Russian regime, I think Russia is unfortunately going towards direct clash NATO".

Con · February 06, 2015, 09:15:22 AM

I would bet that what we have been doing is creating enough mud (taking military off the table etc) to prevent Russia from dropping all pretense and actually just rolling their army across the border. This buys time which is a precious commodity in this conflict.

Meanwhile we have probably taken a cadre of about 500 of the best Ukrainian officers etc and have been giving them a crash course in US/West command and control (drones/satellites etc) and key equipment and tactics (javelins). Weapons sent without training and or a competent force to wield them are not going to help.

Back to time - Russia's window is closing both Militarily and Economically now you also have a good chance to make the prize of taking all of Ukrainian too expensive in Russian blood for Putin to endure and retain power (all without committing US or NATO troops). IMO the US and NATO is not going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine. There are too many bad reasons to do this and much better ones to get the Ukrainians to do the fighting themselves. Meanwhile Russia continues to get pummeled on all sides (but we need a way to keep the pressure from escalating into a conflict between nuclear armed forces). So essentially Ukraine gets screwed and there is a proxy war between west influenced and backed Ukraine and East Ukrainian supported by Russia.

Con

Con · February 06, 2015, 09:20:11 AM

BTW out of interest has anyone who has been playing BlackSea feel differently about committing US forces into Ukraine? I was never for this course of action but (and I know it's a game however there is a large element of reality to it). Seeing as how bloody modern warfare is I am even more against putting troops there. In today's world you really have to be willing to pay an ocean of blood in an incredibly short time in a modern conflict. I would save this choice for bigger moments such as a Russian incursion/fight with a NATO country etc.

Con

pawelj · February 06, 2015, 09:25:07 AM

Quote from: Con on February 06, 2015, 09:15:22 AM
I would bet that what we have been doing is creating enough mud (taking military off the table etc) to prevent Russia from dropping all pretense and actually just rolling their army across the border. This buys time which is a precious commodity in this conflict.

Meanwhile we have probably taken a cadre of about 500 of the best Ukrainian officers etc and have been giving them a crash course in US/West command and control (drones/satellites etc) and key equipment and tactics (javelins). Weapons sent without training and or a competent force to wield them are not going to help.

Back to time - Russia's window is closing both Militarily and Economically now you also have a good chance to make the prize of taking all of Ukrainian too expensive in Russian blood for Putin to endure and retain power (all without committing US or NATO troops). IMO the US and NATO is not going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine. There are too many bad reasons to do this and much better ones to get the Ukrainians to do the fighting themselves. Meanwhile Russia continues to get pummeled on all sides (but we need a way to keep the pressure from escalating into a conflict between nuclear armed forces). So essentially Ukraine gets screwed and there is a proxy war between west influenced and backed Ukraine and East Ukrainian supported by Russia.

Con

You shouldn't think of it as just a conflict over Ukraine. It is a conflict against Russian aggression. Even if this is stopped for now with Russia keeping Crimea and Eastern Ukraine they will try for the rest later and then will go for the Baltics, but by then they will be stronger. And the problem will be bigger.

Con · February 06, 2015, 09:44:52 AM

I dont see how they will be stronger. If anything they will be more tied up and having to spend huge amounts of dwindling cash and manpower trying to keep the Ukrainians down and I am sure we will be doing our best to keep pouring the gasoline on that fire.

Con

LongBlade · February 06, 2015, 09:47:56 AM

Quote from: Gusington on February 06, 2015, 08:59:23 AM
I'm still not convinced that US intervention is justified. Western European intervention....yes. But not US. Not yet.

Western Europe = NATO. NATO includes the US. Either we choose the place and the time or Russia does.

Gusington · February 06, 2015, 11:43:21 AM

Have Switzerland send a force.

Mr. Bigglesworth · February 06, 2015, 12:39:54 PM

Quote from: Gusington on February 06, 2015, 08:59:23 AM
I'm still not convinced that US intervention is justified. Western European intervention....yes. But not US. Not yet.

That sounds like pull the US out of the treaty obligations. The US should only be involved when it chooses to be.

Is that what you want?

Nefaro · February 06, 2015, 01:21:15 PM

Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on February 05, 2015, 06:48:49 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 05, 2015, 06:41:47 PM
Rumors say that the WH is about to flip on the lethal aid to Ukraine issue.

What do you all think? How long till the Ukies get their first Javelins courtesy of the Arsenal of Democracy?

I am all for it. They have the right to defend their country. If Russia gets pissed they are losing units, the solution is simple. Remove them from the Ukraine.

Yep. Fine and to the point. O0

Mr. Bigglesworth · February 06, 2015, 05:19:28 PM

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/06/us-ukraine-crisis-talks-end-idUSKBN0LA2F020150206

The image today says it all.

Greybriar · February 06, 2015, 05:21:54 PM

Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on February 05, 2015, 06:48:49 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 05, 2015, 06:41:47 PM
Rumors say that the WH is about to flip on the lethal aid to Ukraine issue.

What do you all think? How long till the Ukies get their first Javelins courtesy of the Arsenal of Democracy?

I am all for it. They have the right to defend their country. If Russia gets pissed they are losing units, the solution is simple. Remove them from the Ukraine.

I agree. I think it's about time and hope it isn't too late.

Gusington · February 06, 2015, 07:27:04 PM

Biggs we have no treaties with Ukraine. Ukraine isn't in NATO. And shouldn't be. And yes I'm pretty comfortable with the US not getting dragged into a war it doesn't want. We have enough crap to deal with in the wars we thought we did want and a clueless government when it comes to foreign relations anyway.

Staggerwing · February 06, 2015, 07:45:57 PM

Gus, I get your point. I really do.
However, we do have our international credibility to consider and sending the Ukrainians boots and missiles doesn't have to mean that there will be American feet in those boots or American eyeballs looking into the MANPAD sights. The Ukrainians need to uplift their military with better hardware and warfighting technique. That we can provide them. And if Western feet do need to be in Western boots bound for Ukraine, then honoring our NATO obligations doesn't mean we always have to send in our own sons to fight, just that we fully support those other NATO members who send in theirs.