News from Ukraine Conflict

[Atilla60]

Biggs we have no treaties with Ukraine. Ukraine isn't in NATO. And shouldn't be. And yes I'm pretty comfortable with the US not getting dragged into a war it doesn't want. We have enough crap to deal with in the wars we thought we did want and a clueless government when it comes to foreign relations anyway.

Sadly, speaking in the terms of war,. It's not entirely a question of: Do you want it?,. Sometimes war wants you.
That's just how it is, history has an abundance of proof of that.

Don't get me wrong Gus, I get what you say, and I can totally relate to your sentiment.

I don't want a war with Russia either, but IMO the best way to avoid it, is to play hard ball. Not militarily - as a first choice - but by any diplomatic mean that can be pulled.

Russia should have been isolated by now. Politically, financially and culturally. It's the only language a KGB
officer understands. It's sad, but there you have it.

I'd love to see how Putin would pull it off as the restorer of Russian glory, while standards of living comes crumbling down and Russia's soccer team is no longer invited to the major cups.
Leaving him with friends like the Chineese, Norks and Assad in Syria.

I believe that would make the Russians remove him from office without us - NATO -  having to confront him militarily.

Edit:
But Russia isn't isolated, It seems to me we (the west) believe that singling out a couple of Oligarks will do the trick.
IMNSHO that approach will lead to a confrontation, because in Putin's world. it's a sign of weakness.

Hence, armed conflict is inevitable.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

The more everyone avoids a limited conflict with Russia, the further west the resulting conflict will be. If they pay a heavy price for taking Ukraine, which I now think is inevitable, they will turn south to the Stans for their next conquest. Otherwise it will be rejoin Kaliningrad, retake Poland. Trash the rest, then take the Stans.

[Gusington]

Going into Poland would be suicide for Putin, since they are already in NATO, and the gloves would come off.

I hear what you guys are saying above. I don't think anything is ever inevitable, though. Interference in Ukraine, by both Western nations and Russia over the last few years, is what got us into the current position. It's a rock and a hard place.

I'm not advocating total isolation. I'm advocating smart engagement. We need to stop shitting in other people's pools and not expecting the neighbors to get pissed.

[Atilla60]

Interference in Ukraine, by both Western nations and Russia over the last few years, is what got us into the current position.

Totally agree, but as of now it's of zero value. We should look forward, not backwards.

I'm not advocating total isolation.

I know, nothing in your postings here suggest that.

We need to stop shitting in other people's pools and not expecting the neighbors to get pissed.

Again, I couldn't agree more.

However, all of that is history at this point.
Today, as we speak, there's a dictator on the run. He has annexed parts of a independent sovereign, borders guaranteed by international laws, country.

So, question is. Do we accept that? Is that the normal in the 21st century?
As far as I'm concerned, It's not about Ukraine, It's about principles.

[LongBlade]

Ukraine's currency has collapsed, falling 50% in two days.

Now let's back up a minute. Why is Ukraine so doomed? Well, it's been mismanaged on a world-historical scale by oligarchs who, for decades, have skimmed billions off the country's nonexistent growth. That last part's not hyperbole. It seems almost impossible, but Ukraine's economy has actually shrunk since communism ended in 1991. Or since 1992. Or even 1993. And now its not-so-cold war with Russia is destroying the little that's left. It's not just that the rebel strongholds in the factory-heavy east have deprived Ukraine of a quarter of its industrial capacity. It's that it can't afford to fight against what's still it's biggest trading partner—Russia. Think about that. You don't usually trade a lot with the country you're going to battle against, but Ukraine's economy is so dependent on Russia's that it still trades more with it than any other. That means anything that hurts Russia, like lower oil prices or sanctions, just redounds onto Ukraine, and puts it in an even bigger financial hole.

Ukraine, in other words, doesn't have a lot of foreign currency, and doesn't have a lot of ways to earn more of it. Not when it didn't have much of an economy to begin with, it's fighting its biggest trading partner, and separatists have taken away its industrial heartland. The only questions are how big the bailout will be, and how far the hrvynia will fall in the meantime.

Ukraine's currency is weak, and that's not a game.

source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/02/06/ukraines-currency-has-fallen-50-percent-in-two-days/

[Micha]

Hello,
First at all, Putinis IS for me an evil Dictator even though the Russiand wants him like we Germans wanted hitler in the past.
Putin use the same tools to make People like him, Desinformation, lys and bad Propaganda.

For long time i was agree with the western position in the ucraine conflict. But during the last time i have more and more daubts.

Isn"t this this conflict not resembling to the Yugoslavia and Kosovo conflict ?

The problem is the People on the Krim and Eastern ukraine dont want to be part of the ukraine motherland, there is no daubt-
Same as in the Kosiovo conflict.

According to the OSZE the Ukraine Troops kills by full intend not only seperatists but also civillans like the serbs did in Kosovo.

Russia helps the Seperatists with Soldiers and Weapons like we did with Airstrikes in Kosovo.

But Russia made not any Sanktions against the West during that time.

By the way , if Amerika should deliver Weapons to the Ukraine we will have an endless Partisan war between the Seperatists

and the Ukraine.

And on the other Hand , the USSR did not resist when the Ukraine did split up from Russia , same for the Baltic states.

But the Ukraine failed to make friends with the russian minority.

Maybe its really the best to make a new refferendum under international control and give the the eastern ukraine and the Krim

the Status the mayority of People wants. Same for the russian speaking part of the Baltic stats. Everything else will lead in an
endless conflict.

But maybe i"m totally wrong, what do you think ?

[pawelj]

Going into Poland would be suicide for Putin, since they are already in NATO, and the gloves would come off.

I hear what you guys are saying above. I don't think anything is ever inevitable, though. Interference in Ukraine, by both Western nations and Russia over the last few years, is what got us into the current position. It's a rock and a hard place.

I'm not advocating total isolation. I'm advocating smart engagement. We need to stop shitting in other people's pools and not expecting the neighbors to get pissed.

Gus, the only power interfering in Ukraine is Russia. There is no West problem at all.
I really wish I was wrong, but this is not going to end well. At the time of  Russian aggression on Georgia it was said that if West did not respond then Ukraine  will be next. Well, here we are now. I agree we need to be smart about this, like supply weapons to Ukraine without saying we are supplying weapons.

[pawelj]

Hello,
First at all, Putinis IS for me an evil Dictator even though the Russiand wants him like we Germans wanted hitler in the past.
Putin use the same tools to make People like him, Desinformation, lys and bad Propaganda.

For long time i was agree with the western position in the ucraine conflict. But during the last time i have more and more daubts.

Isn"t this this conflict not resembling to the Yugoslavia and Kosovo conflict ?

The problem is the People on the Krim and Eastern ukraine dont want to be part of the ukraine motherland, there is no daubt-
Same as in the Kosiovo conflict.

According to the OSZE the Ukraine Troops kills by full intend not only seperatists but also civillans like the serbs did in Kosovo.

Russia helps the Seperatists with Soldiers and Weapons like we did with Airstrikes in Kosovo.

But Russia made not any Sanktions against the West during that time.

By the way , if Amerika should deliver Weapons to the Ukraine we will have an endless Partisan war between the Seperatists

and the Ukraine.

And on the other Hand , the USSR did not resist when the Ukraine did split up from Russia , same for the Baltic states.

But the Ukraine failed to make friends with the russian minority.

Maybe its really the best to make a new refferendum under international control and give the the eastern ukraine and the Krim

the Status the mayority of People wants. Same for the russian speaking part of the Baltic stats. Everything else will lead in an
endless conflict.

But maybe i"m totally wrong, what do you think ?

There are reports that majority of people in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine did not want to be part of Russia. The referendums were all fake. Now it is too late. Those that want to be part of Russia must move to Russia. They have no future in Crimea or anywhere else in Ukraine, thanks to Putin's aggression.

[pawelj]

I think the name of the thread should be changed to "News from Russian Conflict", as this is not about Ukraine or any Russian speakers there, just as in 1938 it wasn't really about German speakers in the Sudetenland.

[pawelj]

Explosion in Donetsk arms dump, apparently killing 200 Russians:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuQ5EPnSE_4

[LongBlade]

According to the OSZE the Ukraine Troops kills by full intend not only seperatists but also civillans like the serbs did in Kosovo.

Hi Micha,

We haven't had any news coverage in the US (that I'm aware of) which has discussed Ukraine inflicting civilian casualties. So I did a quick search for news related to the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) covering the topic and came across this article:  http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/136026

From what I can understand from this article it seems both Ukrainian and Russian forces are locked in battle in an urban area and both are firing somewhat inaccurate rockets at each other with civilians caught in the middle. The OSCE statement asks both sides to move out of the area.

[Gusington]

Pawelj the West has been working behind the scenes in Ukraine for a long time, backing Western oriented leaders. That's how last spring's protests got started and it has been a legit issue.

[pawelj]

Pawelj the West has been working behind the scenes in Ukraine for a long time, backing Western oriented leaders. That's how last spring's protests got started and it has been a legit issue.

Not sure what you mean by "behind the  scenes". Economic cooperation Agreement with the EU is not exactly clandestine operation. And while the failure to sign might have been a catalyst for the discontent with the Kiev regime, it was its long term corrupt and antidemocratic policies that are at fault. Nothing to do with the West.

[Gusington]

It had everything to do with the West. There are back room deals and shady goings on with both sides.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/09/world/crisis-in-ukraine-underscores-opposing-lessons-of-cold-war.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, at the UN...

...oh, wait, they seem to be somewhat quiet about doing their primary mandate, whatever that was.

(Though to be fair they can't have any more solid idea what to do than anyone else outside of Putin himself; and his own options are kind of fuzzy.)