News from Ukraine Conflict

[LongBlade]

Nobody is going to pick a land conflict in Russian territory.  They have nukes, and as long as they don't cross the NATO boundaries or current Russian boundaries, I don't think there will be any direct confrontation between NATO & Russian forces (or an escalation of conflict).

The wording of 'territory' now is tricky because of the confusion they have generated regarding Crimea & eastern Ukraine.  Looks like a long, slow and messy conflict between Ukraine and Russian back supporters in Eastern Ukraine and/or Crimea.  It remains to be seen if the West will supply arms to Ukraine, but if you look throughout history, nothing has stopped anybody from getting weapons to somebody indirectly.

I think you're right that there will be no direct confrontation.

I cannot imagine Putin wants a proxy war on his doorstep. My guess is if we start seriously arming the Ukrainians and Russian casualties start staggering home he'll find a way to end it.

[JasonPratt]

Assuming we want to arm a thug state.  :P

[Centurion40]

Hopefully the current peace talks will result in a division of Ukraine between a Ukrainian state ruled from Kiev and a Ukrainian state ruled by Moscow; and then that will be the end of it... for a decade, or so until the East Ukrainians say that they are being oppressed by the Russians/Russian-Ukrainians and then Kiev starts to make noise that the Eastern Ukrainians need to be liberated and Ukraine needs to be re-united. 

[JasonPratt]

Didn't Ukraine just launch attacks ahead of the coming peace talks?  ???

[pawelj]

Hopefully the current peace talks will result in a division of Ukraine between a Ukrainian state ruled from Kiev and a Ukrainian state ruled by Moscow; and then that will be the end of it... for a decade, or so until the East Ukrainians say that they are being oppressed by the Russians/Russian-Ukrainians and then Kiev starts to make noise that the Eastern Ukrainians need to be liberated and Ukraine needs to be re-united. 

This is not about Ukraine and it will not be the end of it. Especially if the Russian aggression is allowed to stay.

[Centurion40]

Perhaps not.  But "we" have no legal reason to punch the Russians in the nose.  Unless the Russians act against a NATO member, the best that you can hope for is a protracted war in Ukraine with "us" providing arms and aid to Kiev whilst they battle the Bear.

[pawelj]

Perhaps not.  But "we" have no legal reason to punch the Russians in the nose.  Unless the Russians act against a NATO member, the best that you can hope for is a protracted war in Ukraine with "us" providing arms and aid to Kiev whilst they battle the Bear.

There is the Budapest memorandum guaranteeing Ukrainian territorial integrity in exchange for giving up nukes. Not the same as NATO treaty, but close enough. And also since they say they are not in Ukraine it wont be "punching Russians". And Crimea is not Russia either. US/Nato should arm Ukraine while denying they are not arming them. There so may ways to punish Russia militarily short of direct attack.

[Centurion40]

According to the Memorandum, the first step (should aggression be used against Ukraine) is to petition the UN Security Council.

A pointless document with a pointless outcome.  Still, should "we" decide that push has come to shove, it could be used.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

[pawelj]

You have think of it as another test of NATO, after Georgian adventure. If Putin thinks he can get away with it, he will try going for Estonia and Latvia. I can give you a scenario: A city of Daugavpils in Latvia is just near the border with Russia. It has a sizable Russian population. If armed men in unmarked uniforms take over the city , quickly "vote" to join Russia, Russia accepts send in some troops, all in 48 hours, what should NATO do? 

[pawelj]

According to the Memorandum, the first step (should aggression be used against Ukraine) is to petition the UN Security Council.

A pointless document with a pointless outcome.  Still, should "we" decide that push has come to shove, it could be used.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

Russia is shoving.

[bayonetbrant]

If armed men in unmarked uniforms take over the city , quickly "vote" to join Russia, Russia accepts send in some troops, all in 48 hours, what should NATO do? 

I would suspect that the first step is to start arresting guys in those uniforms and if there's resistance, then you're going to get shooters.  And the first uniformed Russian to cross the border of a NATO country will ignite a war the Russians don't want, can't afford, and won't win. 

[mirth]

Eagle Guardian:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eagle_Guardian

[GDS_Starfury]

theres a lot of cross training going on there as I type this.

[GDS_Starfury]

Soldiers with the 3rd Squadron, 2nd Cavalry Regiment conducted a squad based exercise in the intense cold of Adazi, Latvia, Jan. 28, 2015. This training event is a part of the squadron's participation in Operation Atlantic Resolve. (U.S. Army Photo by Pfc. Jaccob Hearn)

Soldiers with the 3rd Squadron, 2nd Cavalry Regiment conducted a squad based exercise in the intense cold of Adazi, Latvia, Jan. 28, 2015. This training event is a part of the squadron's participation in Operation Atlantic Resolve. (U.S. Army Photo by Pfc. Jaccob Hearn)

[GDS_Starfury]

Lightning Troop, 3rd Squadron, 2nd Cavalry Regiment get to know the Soldiers and equipment of the Algirdas Battalion, Iron Wolf Brigade, Lithuanian land forces at Rukla, Lithuania, Feb. 2, 2015. (U.S. Army Photos by Pfc. Jaccob Hearn)