News from Ukraine Conflict

[GDS_Starfury]

I dont think obama knows we did it.  ::)

[mirth]

Why bother him with the operational details?

[bayonetbrant]

How do you say 'Brrrrrrrrrpppppp!' in Russian?

"Brrrrrrrrrpppppp"

[mirth]

I thought it was "Brrrrrrrpppp-ski"

[LongBlade]

Im finding it funny how idiots on forums and whatnot are commenting on how the A-10 can't survive in a modern AAA environment.
I read this shit and think, Do you kids know what this thing was originally built for?

IIRC there were a number of engagements in Iraq which should have dispelled that notion.

[Staggerwing]

I thought it was "Brrrrrrrpppp-ski"

More like :

"Командир, ты пердеть ?"
" Нет! Отказаться от автомобиля в настоящее время !"

[LongBlade]

How do you say 'Brrrrrrrrrpppppp!' in Russian?

"Brrrrrrrrrpppppp"

Actually it's spelled more like this:

[jomni]

Ceasefire on valentines day.
http://www.straitstimes.com/news/world/europe/story/ukraine-ceasefire-deal-come-effect-midnight-feb-14-20150212#xtor=CS1-10 http://

[bayonetbrant]

I got this from a former Russian FAO who still works for the DOD and has multiple connections in the intel biz.
I've also seen Blank talk a few times back at Ohio St

(U) RUSSIA'S NEW MILITARY DOCTRINE -

6 Feb 15 (U) Woodrow Wilson Center hosted Michael Kofman, Wilson Scholar and former DOD official, and Stephen Blank, American Foreign Policy Council, to discuss the topic.

Michael Kofman's key points:

1) no return to the Cold War;

2) this is an updated version of their 2010 military doctrine;

3) Russian views of Operational Environment (OE): strengthening of global competition, rivalry of values,
increasing complexity, and new centers of economic growth;

4) Russia's view is that it is surrounded by instability and insecurities;

5) against NATO expansion, NATO operating outside of Europe, and worried about NATO's increasing power potential;

6) assess likelihood of large land conventional conflict as "low";

7) divides challenges into "external threats" and "external dangers", NATO is designated a "danger";

8 ) walks back adversarial tone from the 2010 document, but still blames the West for instability;

9) Global Strike is viewed as a danger, not a threat;

10) opposed to US BMD;

11) Ukraine: still believes that the US orchestrated the coup there, and that the West is using mercenaries to fight in Ukraine;

12) also concerned about cyber;

13) nuclear - walked back possibility of use with regards to (WRT) regional conflicts;

14) Russia views most of its problems as being on its periphery;

15) a National Defense Management Center has been opened - it's a fusion center for all of Russia's security agencies;

16) sees the US as on the decline, and managing that decline as a major issue;   (For Russia or for the USA?)

17) Russian Army has drastically improved, thus the walking back of its nuclear doctrine;

18) 2016-25 procurement program will face cuts;

19) US/NATO still vastly more powerful than Russia;

20) moving more to a contract force; doesn't see the average citizen as a soldier;

21) "Russian goal is for you not to know what the truth is";

22) don't expect an internal uprising - Russian society is genuinely mobilized after Crimea; 

23) US policy makers are very poor at predicting Russia's actions;

24) Russia has circumvented the INF Treaty, but this is in part because they are worried about China; and 

25) if war breaks out, Russia plans to lose Kaliningrad.



Mr. Blank's comments below.
Additional notes

Stephen Blank:

-Russian doctrine is an extension of the Leninist mentality - "we are surrounded by enemies who want to destroy us;"

-There is no democratic control of any of Russia's security agencies,
they always accept the worst case scenario WRT the "NATO threat;"

-Russian political system is objectively paranoid, they project onto the US what they themselves do;

-Doctrine advocates unrestricted warfare - information war is a deliberate instrument of state policy

-Vastly upgrading/adding weapons platforms despite economic woes;

-In the Russian defense view: "cutting defense spending is tantamount to treason;"

-Defense spending is at least in excess of 4% of GDP;

-Russia wants to be able to mobilize manpower and industry in case of war, creating reserve armies and expanding overflights and air bases;

-Russia is requesting military bases in Greece, Egypt, and Vietnam;

-Russia is growing increasingly confident in using military force;

-Putin has never accepted the sovereignty of either the former states of the Soviet Union, or the countries that used be in the Warsaw Pact;

-Ukraine is emblematic of Russia's doctrine - not at opportunistic act, but planned since 2005, the recent revolution was merely the catalyst to act;

-Unlike the US, Russia takes strategy seriously;

-By 2017, Russia will be able to wage three "Ukraines" simultaneously;

-Russia tailors its forces to the requirements of a particular theater;

-The Baltic States are concerned about asymmetric threats, not the Russian Army storming across the border;

-Putin is confident that the West lacks the will to resist;

-Polls showing support for Putin are bogus, there is less support than it appears;

- Putin, like Stalin, sees heavy industry and armaments as the key to national greatness;

-"If I were a Baltic Defense Minister, after Ukraine I'd be nervous;"

-The Conventional Forces Europe (CFE) Treaty is dead;

-Russian Special Forces (SF) are no longer Spetznatz, they are based on US Special Forces;

-Russia has a lot of leverage in Hungary and Bulgaria

-US doesn't understand the problem to begin with - there is no strategy or awareness that a strategy is needed;

-In the absence of Western response, Russia will continue to march forward

[pawelj]

Putin will go down in history as the man who saved the A-10.

How do you say 'Brrrrrrrrrpppppp!' in Russian?

"Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaght!!!!" :)

[GDS_Starfury]

I give the new cease fire 3 weeks max.

[LongBlade]

These seem to me to be the most salient points. I'll answer them inline.

14) Russia views most of its problems as being on its periphery;

An enormous assumption that is completely wrong. Their economy has collapsed.

-Russian political system is objectively paranoid, they project onto the US what they themselves do;

This kind of thinking will lead them to a disaster of their own making.

-Putin has never accepted the sovereignty of either the former states of the Soviet Union, or the countries that used be in the Warsaw Pact;

Another large assumption that will lead them to disaster.

-Unlike the US, Russia takes strategy seriously;

True for the next couple of years at least.

-The Baltic States are concerned about asymmetric threats, not the Russian Army storming across the border;

An assumption that will lead to disaster.

-Putin is confident that the West lacks the will to resist;

True for the next couple of years.

-Polls showing support for Putin are bogus, there is less support than it appears;

This statement seems to be at odds with #22 above

22) don't expect an internal uprising - Russian society is genuinely mobilized after Crimea; 

[Gusington]

Russian bases in Greece? Interesting.

[pawelj]

"-Putin has never accepted the sovereignty of either the former states of the Soviet Union, or the countries that used be in the Warsaw Pact;"

Russians basically see only three countries as sovereign: Russia, China and the US. The rest are "puppets". Which that world view any negotiation with Russia is pointless, and conflict inevitable. A conflict with no rules as far as Russia is concerned. The West should use Ukraine to bleed Russia as much as possible if they were smart.
It is 1938 all over again, but more dangerous. I fear we are on the eve of WW2 part 2. This latest non-agreement in Minsk will do FA to "resolve" the situation. At least the Germans are honest enough to admit that already. There is no political solution apart from having Putin and his cronies removed from power.

[pawelj]

I give the new cease fire 3 weeks max.

You are such an optimist.  ;)