A very Groggy bit of analysis

[besilarius]

http://projects21.com/2015/03/11/the-new-long-war-with-russia/

There is a lot in this piece that is reasonable.  In particular how our politicians are on a cyclical crack-the-whip to stay in office.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Very good article. My only doubt is if they are trying to secure their territory or are trying to be expansionist. If the latter, a path to Crimea would be just an appetizer.

Edit:
Clarifying that, the military analysis is great. Rasputin thinks as KGB, not in a military focus. His goal is not the defense of mother Russia, it is regaining Eurasian hegemony, then personally controlling it.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

That site has a talk by Joseph Nye Apr 2 on the front page. Go, if it is convenient.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Sanctions analysis.

http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43895.pdf

Again, he does not really care about the finances, whatever they do to constrain him.

[LongBlade]

Sanctions analysis.

http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43895.pdf

Again, he does not really care about the finances, whatever they do to constrain him.

Yes, but some of his cronies do.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

He will expect personal loyalty, backed by the threat of his intelligence services. He will do as he pleases.

[Staggerwing]

He will expect personal loyalty, backed by the threat of his intelligence services. He will do as he pleases.

Some of his GRU/KGB/FSB guys may also take the long view and play the long game. He can't be sure to a fault.

[JasonPratt]

The only problem with carrot and stick economic strategy, is that the carrot essentially rewards Putin for having taken the initiative and holding a nation hostage by military means -- even if he gives it back for the carrot, the next time he wants a carrot he kidnaps a nation again -- and any stick strong enough to be meaningful as a threat, might as well be a military stick to someone whose economy is tottering in fragments.

[pawelj]

Western analysis of Russia fails when it start assuming their leaders essentially think the same way as us, and will respond rationally.

[JasonPratt]

Western analysis of Russia fails when it start assuming their leaders essentially think the same way as us, and will respond rationally.

True; and even if they're thinking and responding rationally, it won't necessarily be the same way as us (according to their priorities, understanding of facts and values, etc.)