The Defections Begin

[LongBlade]

If this starts a third world war we should all get together and form our own brigade. See y'all in downtown Damascus.

If it comes down to GrogHeads having to settle this in Damascus I'm going to be pissed.

[Centurion40]

If this starts a third world war we should all get together and form our own brigade. See y'all in downtown Damascus.

I'll take your picture with my UAV.  ;)

[mirth]

If this starts a third world war we should all get together and form our own brigade. See y'all in downtown Damascus.

If it comes down to GrogHeads having to settle this in Damascus I'm going to be pissed.

We'd better brush up on our Combat Mission Shock Force skills now.

[bayonetbrant]

I spoke w/ a Syria expert at NDU yesterday (was stationed there for 5 years w/ State Dept) and he doesn't think Assad's regime last more than another 2-3 weeks.  He's seen too many indicators that their support is crumbling under them.  Many of the Damascus neighborhoods where the fighting is are the ones that were populated by Alawite regime members, who obviously aren't around if the rebels are in control of those districts and being shot at by the gov't.

Dunno if he's right, but he knows more about the situation than anyone else I know and knows what indicators to look at.

[besilarius]

Be careful what you wish for, Gus.
Remember all those dreamy, idealistic kids who formed the International Brigades in the Spanish Civil War?
Would have to check to be sure, but between combat, dysentery, typhus, and Uncle Joe Stalin's Truth Brigade, the number of survivors was somewhere around 25%. 
Franco was not very merciful, and if Assad somehow pulls it off (which seems less likely every week), the punishments will be on a par with the French Revolution.

[LongBlade]

I spoke w/ a Syria expert at NDU yesterday (was stationed there for 5 years w/ State Dept) and he doesn't think Assad's regime last more than another 2-3 weeks.  He's seen too many indicators that their support is crumbling under them.  Many of the Damascus neighborhoods where the fighting is are the ones that were populated by Alawite regime members, who obviously aren't around if the rebels are in control of those districts and being shot at by the gov't.

Dunno if he's right, but he knows more about the situation than anyone else I know and knows what indicators to look at.

I think he's right.

From what I gathered from the talking heads on TV, it's now Assad and a bunch of colonels (more or less). Syria has always had a fractured leadership. The fact that there is now fighting in Damascus is a bad sign if you were part of the ancien regime. The country has been overrun by rebels. If you're still fighting you just don't know it yet.

[Gusington]

You're taking all the adventure out of the possibilities Bes!

[bayonetbrant]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Me8W1WcgCY

good video from the FSyA showing them capturing some T72s.

Thanks to Rex for pointing it out.

[Staggerwing]

I heard speculation from a FSA spokesman that the Regime had ringed the City of Aleppo with 30 or more tanks from nearby army units but that the commanders were afraid to send them in because of the chance that most of the crews would defect. Instead the attack must wait until armored units from much farther away arrive with a lower percentage of crews with local ties.

[Staggerwing]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19146380
The freekin' Syrian Prime Minister just defected to Jordan! Assad better get his kids and his money out now because history shows these things can go critical pretty fast and unless he wants to be another Qaddafi, Ceausescu, or Mussolini-on-a-hook he better have the back door open and the car engine running...

[Martok]

Indeed.  This does strike me as being a potential tipping point. 

[LongBlade]

Indeed.  This does strike me as being a potential tipping point.

The tipping point was the assassination (heh, no irony there) of the Syrian leadership below Assad. It's just taking a couple of weeks to catch up to the rest of the regime.

[besilarius]

This will become very bloody when all the bigshots leave.  All the pentup rage at them will be taken out on their Alawite supporters.
Digging them out of their highland fortresses could be an ongoing process that will take years.  It just doesn't seem like the rebels will give them any chance to survive unless they surrender really quick.
In that case, there will be some atrocities, some tiger cages, but not for all.

[LongBlade]

Another defection.

The deputy police commander for the central Syrian province of Homs has defected to Jordan, an opposition source said on Sunday, further undermining President Bashar al-Assad as he struggles to crush an uprising against his rule.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/senior-syrian-policeman-defects-opposition-124917244.html

[Gusington]

It's a big party and only Assad is not invited.