Russia's War Against Ukraine

[MengJiao]

its on the optimistic side but interesting none the less.

https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-collapse-945984f5d48e

  Doesn't sound many messages of hope for the Russians in the Ukraine.  I thought the summer offensive of 1917 was undertaken by the Provisional Government.  Victor Sklovsky was there of course and
got one of his more serious injuries while (as usual) trying to get an armored car working.  I think he was technically still too young to drink even in the Army of the Provisional Government.

  Of course (as usual) the problem is how to get Russia out of this.  Last I heard, the UN was helping Russia, Ukraine and Turkey set up safe shipping routes for Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea and through the straits.  So maybe Russia can be worked into some kind of UN-supervised sets of ceasefires and whatnot.  Probably a phased withdrawal with a phased removal of sanctions or something.

[Gusington]

Do you have any links on what the UN is doing?

[JasonPratt]

WW1 comparisons are so last week. It's Mosin-Nagants now, baby!  :D

https://wesodonnell.medium.com/fact-check-are-russian-conscripts-in-ukraine-using-rifles-from-wwi-3c29feb350d2

....of course, still used in WW1, but made long before it.

The more interesting question (as in the article), is why not more AKs? Even AK-47s are still both widely available and useful. Is ammo shortage a problem? That would sound insane (considering the universality of 7.62mm for the AK rifles, and how far away the vast majority of Russian ammo storage must be from HIMARS strikes), but if ammo isn't properly stored it will degrade to unusable and even dangerous levels.

Then there are other factors for getting ammo to the front, that we know of, like a lack of trucks or even the logistic skill in arranging truck deliveries smoothly.

[MengJiao]

Do you have any links on what the UN is doing?

  Recently there is this, but it has been coming up since June (and there have been earlier meetings):

https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-says-ukraine-russia-un-meeting-this-week-grain-corridor-probable-2022-07-18/

  And its sort of an evolving regional BLOC:

  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/19/putin-russia-erdogan-grain-ukraine-war-syria-tehran

Of course, this has some resonance with ancient history since Thucydides was demoted for messing up the politics of the grain trade to Athens through the straits.

And of course Snake Island is the sacred island where Helen of Troy settled down with Achilles (there are a lot of weird ancient versions of the Trojan War --
sort of the Byzantine Hallmark Channel version or
something I guess in the case of Helen and Achilles getting together on Snake Island).

[GDS_Starfury]

and how far away the vast majority of Russian ammo storage must be from HIMARS strikes), but if ammo isn't properly stored it will degrade to unusable and even dangerous levels.

this is where your thinking is flawed.  the ammo dumps are not far away because the russians lack the capacity to move quickly over long distances.  so they are in fact somewhat closer and within mlrs range.
also the russian method for storage truly sucks.

[JasonPratt]

Ammo dumps, yes, I know, I saw the map.  :bd:

But ammo STORAGE isn't the same thing, the main storage facilities aren't built near the front line within strike range. (Unless you're Stalin leading up to and into WW2, since in that case you want even the main storage facilities built within 50 miles of the border -- and artillery ammo just dumped out on the ground at the front line in the last few weeks before kickoff, for 'reasons'. ;) )

However, it's safe to assume that the main storage facilities aren't upkept much better than average for Russia nowadays. (Maybe somewhat better or there'd be more explosions.) So even before they get on the road to the combat dumps, crazy-large portions of the ammo may be ruined.

And then of course all the other crappy factors in getting the ammo out of storage, onto (properly scheduled and routed and functioning) transportation, actually transported to the dumps, stored at the dumps (now under better arty fire), etc.

Come to think of it, I feel like it's a safe bet that the Russian rolling rail stock is falling apart, too.

[Gusington]

I would suscribe right now to the Byzantine Hallmark Channel.

[GDS_Starfury]

how russians store ammo.  for russians there seems to be no distinction between storage and dump.

[GDS_Starfury]

before


after

[FarAway Sooner]

I think the Russian distinction between "storage" and "dump" is whether or not things are stacked in neat rows.

All of this info about the Russians' impending collapse is anecdotal.  It's compelling to hear and lines up with the way our brain processes information, but I don't see much data to really back up those assertions.  It doesn't mean they're wrong.  It just means that they're closer to conjecture, as was admitted in the original post providing that assessment upthread.

I'm hopeful.  I'm just not convinced.

The Allies were able to break out of Normandy because they won the logistical contest to build up forces faster.  They did this not only by a ridiculous loading/unloading effort to swell their own beachhead, but also by blowing up every railroad imaginable west of the German border in the year before D-Day.

That said, the Allies were near their breaking point before they secured the harbor facilities in Antwerp.  By moving the drop-off point for their supplies 350 miles East, the Allies solved A TON of logistical problems.  The tonnage that they could put ashore daily in Antwerp quickly dwarfed what they had been able to do at any other port.  Unlike the harbors in Northern and Western France, the Antwerp harbor had not been demolished prior to occupation.

[JasonPratt]

Some more confirmation about early deserters trying to get out of their contracts due to bad weapons and supplies. 300 troops sounds like a company?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-suffer-frostbite-forced-to-cut-off-blackened-meat-report/ar-AAZKnxp?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=f3fd1a9b0cae465489c6eb969a2eb08d

[JasonPratt]

On the other hands (...plural not originally intended but kept for the relevant humor...!)

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-soldiers-monsters-secret-experiments-biolabs-us-1725908

To quote one of the final quips from Cyrano de Bergerac, "I believe I may call that flattery!"  >:D

[Sir Slash]

My good friend Yoda says, "Begun the Monkey Pox Wars have".  :o

[Windigo]

On the other hands (...plural not originally intended but kept for the relevant humor...!)

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-soldiers-monsters-secret-experiments-biolabs-us-1725908

To quote one of the final quips from Cyrano de Bergerac, "I believe I may call that flattery!"  >:D

Damn, that is the most opulent and copious amount of unsupported speculation I have seen in a very very long time. Did News Week start hiring National Enquirer writers?

How is that even worthy of publishing?

[SirAndrewD]

Damn, that is the most opulent and copious amount of unsupported speculation I have seen in a very very long time. Did News Week start hiring National Enquirer writers?

How is that even worthy of publishing?

I dunno, I'm kind of excited to see the moment that the Ukrainian army unleashes a horde of horribly mutated tentacled super soldiers to lay waste to the Russian Army.