Russia's War Against Ukraine

[SirAndrewD]

I don't think Russian proprietary defense tech is much more advanced than say, Iranian or North Korean tech. I could be wrong but...I just don't think so.

If Ukraine captured an Armata they could probably just add to what they know about it's weaknesses already.

If the Armata is even close to a match to Western tanks I will eat my hat.

I think your hat is safe.   Especially since the way the Russians sell the Armata isn't that it's a "match" for NATO armor.  They call it the first true Fifth Generation MBT, a paradigm shift in armor that leaves Western tech behind in favor of superior Russian engineering. 

That's exactly why the Russians don't want one captured or used in a direct battlefield role.  I agree with you and a lot of defense analysts that more and more the T-14 seems like a parade piece, and its supposedly next generation optics, FCS and armor are in fact wishlists rather than actually functional pieces of equipment on the tank.

It's telling that almost a decade into its development it still doesn't have the 150mm "Abrams Killer" main armament installed and they've only made 40 of the things of which maybe half are combat capable, if that.

I would wager that for all their flaws, the T-80U and T-90 are actually the more capable platforms in the Russian army and are being used as such.

[JasonPratt]

Yes, but most importantly: how well does it stand up to drones dropping bomblets?

[GDS_Starfury]

keep in mind that it seems that most tanks killed by drones are either already abandoned or they left the turret hatches open.

[Gusington]

Ukraine capture any T-90s?

[FarAway Sooner]

Yup.  A captured one turned up on a broken down semi rig at a small roadside casino in Lousiana just two weeks ago.  It was discussed here for a little while.

https://www.newsweek.com/mystery-russian-t-90-tank-turns-louisiana-gas-station-1794494

^IIRC there was a controversy early last year about sending Warthogs over for fear of poking the Russian bear more.

Not sure if anyone still cares now.

There was some discussion of this on Ward Carroll's podcast last year.  He and Bronk get referenced a lot and may or may not be right all the time, but for what it's worth...

Bronk's take was that the A-10 was great for COIN and low-intensity conflict but that it would be toast for Russian air-defense systems in the absence of any sort of full-scale SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) and DEAD campaign. 

Assuming an A-10 could have made it flying over that 37-mile long convoy back last February, it would have raised Holy Hell.  But the A-10 would be even more vulnerable to ground-based air defenses than Russian fighters are today against Ukrainian air defenses, and there's a reason that the Russians aren't flying many missions over Ukrainian soil.

Bronk's take was that NATO could do a successful SEAD and DEAD campaign against the Russian air defenses assembled in Ukraine, but that it would take weeks or months AND a willingness to sustain real casualties.  He further added that there's no way that the European air forces could do it without the full support of in-theater USAF forces.

The Russians just have a crap-ton of air defenses built and the Ukrainians haven't done much to degrade them.

[Skoop]

I'd love to see how we would do SEAD today if we throw our full arsenal at it, I think the US could suppress it enough and maintain relatively low losses.  But I'm talking stand-off weapons and even B2s to take out s400 sites.

[MengJiao]

I'd love to see how we would do SEAD today if we throw our full arsenal at it, I think the US could suppress it enough and maintain relatively low losses.  But I'm talking stand-off weapons and even B2s to take out s400 sites.

  Yeah, when I ran Next War Vietnam against the Chinese, the US took a while (the predicted 3 weeks one hears about -- 7 game turns)
and had some losses, but did dominate the air eventually and the B2s definitely helped a lot.

[JasonPratt]

Speaking of Ukrainian hero tractors...! ...well, we weren't speaking of them I suppose, but any time is Tractor-time!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/12w39at/a_selfmade_ukrainian_minesweeper_created_on_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

That's a tractor (not a truck). It's remote controlled. It has been A-teamed up into being a remote-controlled minesweeper.

[GDS_Starfury]

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1651535551755853824

[GDS_Starfury]

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1651728308940447745

[JasonPratt]

Maaaaybe some video of forced conscription in Moscow...?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/131b7f8/the_video_of_alleged_forceful_mobilization_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3#

One of the top comments translates the dialogue supposedly (I can't confirm it):

The man in the brown jacket is calling the police: "I am next to the enlistment office of the Babushkinskiy Distrist, located next to the Okruzhnaya metro station. The enlistment office's employees are forcing the conscript into the backseat of the car. There is a police officer standing idly by... I'd like to request the police squad to come here. Can you send the police over here? I don't want to complain, I want to prevent an unlawful grab of a civilian..."

The kid: "They are braking my arm! (repeats three times) Help! My arm! F*cking hell!"

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, Wagner-boss Prigozhin has decided to start criticizing his employers openly and directly, something he may not have been doing before:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1312ddc/in_the_interspecies_struggle_with_other_peddlers/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3


Maybe he'd be in a better mood if he wasn't an arrant supervillain. Or if someone gave him some Snickers.

Speaking of, here's a genuinely good moment!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/130k8m6/little_gift_to_ukrainian_soldier_a_drive_by/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

[JasonPratt]

One of the better Youtubing war reporters, Suchomimus, just released (less than an hour ago) some footage he found of (apparently) the first combat usage of the APKWS in Ukraine!

Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System sounds like an anime name!

[GDS_Starfury]

somewhere in Ohio.

[GDS_Starfury]

a Gepard gets its paint scratched.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1651877246057979906