Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

^Vietnam?

[SirAndrewD]

^Vietnam?

Afghanistan more recently.  More than once.

[FarAway Sooner]

Yeah.  I think this war is one fought where both sides' air defenses have worked very well.

The Russians' have worked better, but it's not like they have had much success hitting anything smaller than infrastructure behind Ukrainian lines.

[SirAndrewD]

Neither side has been able to get what would be defined as Air Superiority. 

[GDS_Starfury]

Is it possible for Ukraine to win anything larger than small fights without control of the air? Will this war be the first since WWII that the side without Air Superiority won? 

things seem to be picking up speed in the south.  I'll remind you that Normandy was a lot of little fights until suddenly it was big pushes and gains.

[Sir Slash]

I don't see the Ukrainians having any impenetrable jungles or vast, towering mountain ranges to hide in but OK, it could happen. Maybe. Despite Normandy being a lot of little fights, the Allies were achieving massive material superiority there while fighting the little fights. These two sides seem so evenly matched right now I can't see an Operation Cobra resulting in a drive to the Black Sea here. All I see is three yards and a cloud of dust behind a wall of dead bodies. 

[Gusington]

Part of Ukraine's military history of the last 200 years at least has been 'partisan' fighting against an outside invader.

Putin forgot this too.

[GDS_Starfury]

   so happy to see this!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1675973206828625920

[GDS_Starfury]

[ArizonaTank]

...
I've seen reports, including videos, where shattered remnants of Russian companies are refusing to go back to the Russian front line, even if the FSB executes them.

I'd love to think this is the crack that causes the whole Russian army to fail, but history suggests that is not necessarily the case. After the Nivelle Offensive in 1917, there was a broad mutiny in the French army. But it was not a full mutiny. The French infantrymen just refused any more frontal assaults. However, they were content to defend and participate in conservative offensive actions.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-soldiers-refuse-to-carry-out-suicidal-orders/ar-AA1dnsyU?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=0d19ea09d8934352a916ac80dd3e7a9b&ei=9

[FarAway Sooner]

Yeah.  I didn't read the article but I saw a headline recently that seemed very apt:  "Ukraine is like WW I but with high tech weaponry"

[FarAway Sooner]

The comparison to the D Day breakout is possible but it's impossible to tell.  With the benefit of hindsight, it's obvious that the allies were steadily building up the number and readiness of their troops while the Germans were sliding the other way for those six weeks (the Brits would argue that they were keeping themselves and the Germans on par around Caen, thus allowing the Americans to build up for a breakout in their sector).

The reality in Normandy is that the Allies used blatant air superiority to paralyze the German rail and road network, such that they could establish logistical superiority across fifty miles of the English channel, despite the absence of any functioning port.  That is an association statement, but it's what drive the Allied breakout.

While it is possible that Ukraine might accomplish the same thing, we have nothing more than suspect anecdotal evidence to support this.  We won't know who's winning until the retreats begin.  Such is the fog of war.

[Sir Slash]

I agree. A clear military victory that ends the war by either side seems less and less likely, stalemate looks to be the inevitable result at present. This isn't Normandy, it's more like Verdun.

[GDS_Starfury]

then your clearly not seeing the maps and videos that Im seeing.

[GDS_Starfury]

this is a few days old.  and while it might not look like much it is the grinding down of russian military capacity. in the upper right the area around Rivnopil has now been cleared past the town and continues south.