Israel

[Tripoli]

If my theory is correct, then it becomes incumbent on Israel to appear to be as moderate as possible in their response.  Not that the Hamas actions don't deserve the fires of Hell raining upon them.  But there are larger issues. You really want to hurt Iran?  Then don't let this operation scuttle the Saudi-Israeli negotiations.  WHile some retaliation in the near term is necessary (and I have no problem with the Mossad spending the next twenty years hunting down  the perpetrators and killing them like dogs), it will be important to very precisely target Hamas.  Not an easy thing to do, with the current and understandable state of Israeli public opinion.  I believe the formation of a unity government in Israel is a good first step.  The use of the hostages as human shields will make this targeted approach more difficult.  Nevertheless, IMHO, this targeted and limited approach is needed to win the larger game.

This isn't a game. Israel is fighting for their very existence. There is no winning so long as there are people who believe that Israel has no right to exist. I agree with Ben Shapiro that Hamas is worse than the Nazis. The Nazis at least tried to cover up their crimes. Hamas livestreams their crimes and celebrates each murder.

There will be no peace until Arabs love their children more than they hate Jews. Truer words have never been spoken.

You are absolutely right it isn't a game.  I  changed that.  It is a war, and the outrage that is the Iranian/Hamas deserves a full response, but one that does not simultaneously end up hurting Israel.  I don't disagree with what you are saying.  I am more than happy to retaliate on an industrial scale, if that is in the best interest of Israel's national security interest.  The question is whether doing so would help or hurt Israel.  For the reasons I articulated, I think that the immediate retaliation needs to moderated and targeted so as to allow Israel to win the larger war. 

[Jarhead0331]

If my theory is correct, then it becomes incumbent on Israel to appear to be as moderate as possible in their response.  Not that the Hamas actions don't deserve the fires of Hell raining upon them.  But there are larger issues. You really want to hurt Iran?  Then don't let this operation scuttle the Saudi-Israeli negotiations.  WHile some retaliation in the near term is necessary (and I have no problem with the Mossad spending the next twenty years hunting down  the perpetrators and killing them like dogs), it will be important to very precisely target Hamas.  Not an easy thing to do, with the current and understandable state of Israeli public opinion.  I believe the formation of a unity government in Israel is a good first step.  The use of the hostages as human shields will make this targeted approach more difficult.  Nevertheless, IMHO, this targeted and limited approach is needed to win the larger game.

This isn't a game. Israel is fighting for their very existence. There is no winning so long as there are people who believe that Israel has no right to exist. I agree with Ben Shapiro that Hamas is worse than the Nazis. The Nazis at least tried to cover up their crimes. Hamas livestreams their crimes and celebrates each murder.

There will be no peace until Arabs love their children more than they hate Jews. Truer words have never been spoken.

You are absolutely right it isn't a game.  I  changed that.  It is a war, and the outrage that is the Iranian/Hamas deserves a full response, but one that does not simultaneously end up hurting Israel.  I don't disagree with what you are saying.  I am more than happy to retaliate on an industrial scale, if that is in the best interest of Israel's national security interest.  The question is whether doing so would help or hurt Israel.  For the reasons I articulated, I think that the immediate retaliation needs to moderated and targeted so as to allow Israel to win the larger war. 

Your point is valid, and I understand what you are saying.  However, it wouldn't even be worth considering, but for the fact that the rest of the world is so twisted in how it tends to view responsibility for violence in the region and the standard upon which it imposes upon Israel, while essentially giving the Arabs a free pass.

[Tripoli]

  Yes, you are absolutely correct on this.  The intellectual and moral bankruptcy and/or moral inversion that allows for this twisted thinking is extremely frustrating.  Frankly, it is, IMHO, a major factor in why the world (and not just regarding Israel) is in the shape it is in today.

[Tripoli]

Interesting point worth considering at the end of this thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1711630404132773920.html

"Israel can win a one front war against Hamas. It can contain a two front war against Hezbollah. It might just endure a three front war in the West Bank. It may not survive a four front war with its domestic Arab population. Everything I fear is designed to bring about the latter "

[Jarhead0331]

Interesting point worth considering at the end of this thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1711630404132773920.html

"Israel can win a one front war against Hamas. It can contain a two front war against Hezbollah. It might just endure a three front war in the West Bank. It may not survive a four front war with its domestic Arab population. Everything I fear is designed to bring about the latter "

I'm not sure the Arab Israeli population sees things in the same way as those who are in the West Bank and Gaza. Israeli Arabs have the privilege of citizenship, benefit from economic advantages and are much better off than than their peers. While I doubt they have patriotic love for Israel, I don't think many of them would take up arms.

[FarAway Sooner]

The Arabs have largely received a free pass for the last 15-20 years, in large part because the Israelis seemed to have the upper hand.  In the face of these most recent Hamas atrocities, I suspect much of world opinion will mellow.

The Israelis have always had to strike a balancing act between world opinion and survival instinct.  It is worth remembering that Hamas is fundamentally a terrorist organization.  Unless/until they get their hands on nuclear weapons, their primary weapon against Israel is terror.

The Israelis need a surgically calibrated response here that protects their own, but doesn't play into Iran's longer-term plans.  While Hamas is the latest Hydra-head to emerge from the mess that is Palestine and the Middle East, I think that the root cause here is Palestinian extremism, backed by Iranian planning and resources.

That is a frustrating balancing act.  But it's exactly the challenge Hamas sought to pose when they committed the atrocities that they did. 

I could find a few Tsun Szu quotes that apply here pretty easily.  But the Israelis need purpose and calculation here even more than passion.  Even if I understand the passion behind the response 100%.

[FarAway Sooner]

Tomas Pueyo writes some interesting stuff.  He's provocative more often than he's entirely correct, but if anybody wants a SUPER high level summary of geography and economics in the Middle East, you can find an interesting link here.  It's maybe a 5-minute read with lots of pictures.

[MikeGER]

There will be no peace until Arabs love their children more than they hate Jews. Truer words have never been spoken.

...will not happen,
look what this guy is doing to get his Pallywood production sobstory video 
well, it didn't worked like intended 


https://twitter.com/i/status/1711723744731734048

[Pete Dero]

There will be no peace until Arabs love their children more than they hate Jews. Truer words have never been spoken.

...will not happen,
look what this guy is doing to get his Pallywood production sobstory video 
well, it didn't worked like intended 


https://twitter.com/i/status/1711723744731734048

Not that it changes the content of the video, but this is from 2016 !.
Shadows can't be like that this time of the year.

http://www.thetower.org/3715-watch-palestinian-urges-idf-to-shoot-his-son-on-camera-soldier-and-boy-high-five-instead/

[Sir Slash]

Hamas' hoping for an Israeli over-reaction/Multitude of dead Palestinian bodies to post on social media, is aimed not at Israel but the West. They well know Israel has the stomach for this kind of war but, 'We', meaning America and Europe, do not. Their hope is that people of conscience will ride-in at the last moment, again, and save them. It worked last time but may not this time, I hope.                           
  That is why Israel is moving so fast here, they know it will only be a little while before World Opinion guided by Palestinian propaganda, will try to make them stop and negotiate a deal that Hamas can display to the whole Arab World as another victory over Zionism.

[Gusington]

If Israel can form a unity government in light of the last few years of domestic politics, then maybe they can save the peace process with the Saudis too.

[JasonPratt]

Re the 20% Muslim population of Israel: I don't have independent confirmation of this, but I recall Shaprio saying that in a poll a very large percentage of that population -- so large it might as well be unanimous -- stated they hated Israel.

Of course, he was understandably upset at the time, so he might be rhetorically exaggerating the point, or misremembering the details. But his point was the irony involved: they have more freedoms and get more benefits living there, than any general Muslim population anywhere around them, and VASTLY more than any Jewish population in any Muslim nation anywhere on Earth. And yet some, too many, of them still hate Israel and want to see it swept of Jews from the river to the sea.

Hopefully an equally large fraction of that hatred is just cultural cover for their own protection from problems by fellow Muslims. That boy high-fiving the IDF, in the video above, might be more representative. I'd sure like to hope so.

For whatever it's worth, one of the main reconciliation factors in recent years between Jewish and other semitic people, has been a surprising jump in conversions of Muslims around the world to Christianity. There are built-in factors even within Islam for reconciliation with their brothers: they're taught to at least like Abraham and David, and really admire King Solomon (to the point of some of their leaders claiming to be the inheritors of Solomon), and they're taught to love "Issi", the miracle-working virgin-born prophet of Allah/the Lord. Can't really get around all these people being ethnically Jewish.

[JasonPratt]

Just a reminder what Israel is fighting against, and what supporters of Hamas are actually supporting:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hamas-explains-how-they-did-it/ar-AA1i41dw?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=d54b2310aaec4c2a8feed77dc4f9332d&ei=37

Unfortunately, this brief editorial piece at WSJ doesn't give citations for Ali Baraka's interview with Russia Today.

Most of the article is this key paragraph:

"In the past couple of years, Hamas has adopted a 'rational' approach. It did not go into any war, and did not join the Islamic Jihad in its recent battle," Ali Baraka said in an interview that ran on Russia Today and was translated by Memri. "We made them think that Hamas was busy with governing Gaza, and that it wanted to focus on the 2.5 million Palestinians there, and has abandoned the resistance altogether. All the while, under the table, Hamas was preparing for this big attack."

Note that "governing Gaza" still involved shooting occasional rocket strikes into Israel hoping to hit population centers. 

[GDS_Starfury]

No other country on the planet would tolerate what Israel has put up with since 2007 1948

fixed

[GDS_Starfury]

so what are the chances of Israel using water, gas and food as leverage in getting the hostages released?