Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, Putin decides that all he was trying to do was push back Uk artillery out of range of Belgorod. Not capture Kharkiv. So he hasn't failed at that, therefore isn't going to fail at that, therefore he remains a master strateNYET STOP LOOKING AT MAP SHOWING REBEL UKRAINE HOLDING UNAUTHORIZED LAND AS FAR NORTH AS OKIP MUCH CLOSER TO BELGOROD TARGETS THAN LAND NORTH OF KHARKIV!

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1791420518349820302

Hat tip to the Enforcer.

To be fair, Zelensky thinks this was a probing attack with the main thrust being much larger and coming later next month. That doesn't really explain why Putin would be shoveling what sounds like hillocks of copium, but Putin is a master strategist so maybe he thinks if he claims he wasn't trying to take Kharkiv people will believe him and go away...?

[FarAway Sooner]

No one in the west is willing to switch their economy over to war time production to produce 70,0000 arty shells per month, cause that's what it will take to win this. 

The Pentagon states that they'll be able to hit production targets of 100,000 155mm shells per month by Summer of 2025, as funding for that (along with many other things) was included in the $65B spending bill that the US recently passed.

Your basic point still stands:  Readiness costs money, and Western democracies have proven pretty reluctant to make that commitment, even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

The West in general (and the US in specific) has always prided itself on spending money instead of lives.  I think that one lesson from the Ukrainian war is that, while money matters a lot, we might need to rethink how we spend that.

In particular, we might need to recalibrate the mix between quality and quantity.  There's a role for high-value weapons (e.g., F-35s dropping a half-dozen PGMs hundreds of miles behind enemy lines) and low-value weapons (e.g., a battery of 155mm howitzers dropping a curtain of dumb HE shells across enemy troops advancing along a broad front), but I think Western procurement strategies have strayed toward the high end. 

Simple things like rifle ammunition, trucks, and AP rounds for tanks are necessary before the wunder-weapons can do their thing.

I'm more worried that the US won't be able to keep their eye on this ball and Congress will go back to allocating pork to key defense contractors, rather than maintaining the broad industrial base to allow us to ramp up ammunition production quickly. 

It's kind of similar to the plan proposed (and ignored) in 2017 (?) to keep surgical-mask production facilities mothballed but ready-to-roll in the US for $150M a year.  It ain't cheap, but it ain't that expensive either.  It just requires us to pay attention to the important stuff.

https://www.defenseone.com/business/2024/04/goal-100k-artillery-shells-month-sight-army-says/396047/

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/04/18/us-army-document-details-plan-to-update-wwii-era-ammo-plants-and-depots/

[Gusington]

Paying attention to important stuff seems more and more difficult.

[FarAway Sooner]

Paying attention to important stuff seems more and more difficult.

I think it's grown more and more difficult for policy makers to pay attention to important stuff because money rules American politics these days, and special interests are extremely well-positioned to use money to influence incumbent politicians. 

I think it's grown more and more difficult for the public to pay attention to important stuff because the Internet mass media algorithms have figured out how to serve us a steady diet of confirmation bias and outrage, so it gets easier and easier to live in our own little information bubble.  That tends to make us overlook information that might tell us that the world is changing and new stuff is becoming important.

[JasonPratt]

Paying attention to important stuff seems more and more difficult.

I think it's grown more and more difficult for policy makers to pay attention to important stuff because money rules American politics these days, and special interests are extremely well-positioned to use money to influence incumbent politicians.

I don't disagree, but I'm somewhat amusedly trying to recall if there was a time in US political history when that wasn't ever true.

[acctingman]

So, does anyone here think that if Trump wins he'll want to stop sending aid to Ukraine so not to piss off his butt buddy Putin?

[Jarhead0331]

So, does anyone here think that if Trump wins he'll want to stop sending aid to Ukraine so not to piss off his butt buddy Putin?

Please leave politics out of this thread. Buzz words like "Trump", "Biden" and "butt buddy" are sure to lead the thread back into the gutter.

Thanks.

[acctingman]

My bad. I hardly bring up anything political, but I should have known better.

[Jarhead0331]

My bad. I hardly bring up anything political, but I should have known better.

I'll confess...I was a bit surprised.

But, thanks. 

[Uberhaus]

Steve Rosenberg has some interesting commentary on what he is calling a purge in the Russian military.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c900qz4wll4o 

It failed. President Putin sided with his military chiefs. Prigozhin lost his power battle with Mr Shoigu and Gen Gerasimov. And, shortly after, he lost his life in a plane crash.
But one year on, a Kremlin-backed purge of the army has started.
And this tells us something about Vladimir Putin. The Russian president is averse to acting under pressure. Order him to sack a minister or an army general, and he's unlikely to agree to it then and there. He won't be told what to do.
That doesn't mean Mr Putin won't act. At a time of his choosing.
What isn't clear is how far this purge of the Russian military will go; how many more senior figures will end up behind bars.

[Jarhead0331]

^What is the motive behind the "purge"? Isn't the Russian military finally making measurable strategic gains?

[Uberhaus]

^What is the motive behind the "purge"? Isn't the Russian military finally making measurable strategic gains?

I'm going to have to be brief, I have to rush off for training.  Maybe I'll need to add something later. 
The Russians are saying that the senior officers are being arrested for corruption.  Shoigu's friendship w/ Putin probably saved him and such a move would be a threat to others in the kleptocracy. Rosenberg states that it is for the reasons Prigozhin staged his mutiny, incompetence and corruption, however, R states that Putin won't be told what to do.

Obviously, the purge is not for Stalin's reasons, they're not a threat to Putin's leadership.  They're incompetence is well documented and the corruption is well known but personally, I think Putin wants major reforms so that the military isn't lacking for its equipment and ability in the future.  With the leaked document on Russia's borders at sea, it looks like the Russians will keep pushing, not respecting the rule of law. 

With Western equipment beginning to arrive and how it will impede the Russian offensives, there may be a connection to failed promises by the leadership but that's just speculation. 

Not my best response, but I'm pressed.  Excuses, excuses.

[ArizonaTank]

The Russians seem to be making slow and steady progress against Kharkiv. :(

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/europe/ukraine-russia-lyptsi-kharkiv-intl/index.html

[JasonPratt]

The Uks score a big hit on a major comms and tracking station at Voronezh!

So now the Russians will have more difficulty tracking the incoming drones that they're having difficulty stopping. 

Enforcer flavored summary report:

Or Anna flavored! (With more focus on Crimea generally.)

[JasonPratt]

Remember back in the 80s when the Spetznaz were awesome?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1czt9sd/russian_serviceman_demonstrates_a_radio_antenna/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Well, not every spec-ops force in the world can use a tape measure for a... wait, what?