Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Gusington]

^Ah that takes me back, maaan...

[JasonPratt]

President Z announced that Ukraine will go on the counter-offensive north of Kharkiv today, having shut down the Russian push (such as it was), annnnd... well, the map hasn't moved yet. But Ukraine (for whatever it's worth) says the Russian casualty list has now passed 500K since the war began. Whether this will trigger or catch the main Russian attack off foot, don't know yet.

[Uberhaus]

President Z announced that Ukraine will go on the counter-offensive north of Kharkiv today, having shut down the Russian push (such as it was), annnnd... well, the map hasn't moved yet. But Ukraine (for whatever it's worth) says the Russian casualty list has now passed 500K since the war began. Whether this will trigger or catch the main Russian attack off foot, don't know yet.

From:  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-25-2024

Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces are increasingly contesting the tactical initiative in northern Kharkiv Oblast and characterized Russian operations in the area as defensive, although Russian forces are likely attempting to bring the Northern Grouping of Forces up closer to its reported planned end strength before possibly intensifying offensive operations in the area.
The likely premature start of Russian offensive operations appears to have undermined Russian success in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian forces continue to leverage their sanctuary in Russian airspace to strike Kharkiv City to devastating effect, likely as part of efforts to depopulate the city and demoralize Ukrainians.
Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities reportedly impacted the effectiveness of select Western weapon systems in Ukraine in 2023 as Ukraine and Russia continue to compete in a technical offense-defense race.

[Gusington]

500k casualties...once again, 'Jesus Christ, Russia'

[Crossroads]

500k casualties...once again, 'Jesus Christ, Russia'

Utter madness. If they keep up with this 1k+ per day rate they have going on at the moment, they will hit a million by the end of next year. Sheesh.

[JasonPratt]

From:  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-25-2024

Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces are increasingly contesting the tactical initiative in northern Kharkiv Oblast and characterized Russian operations in the area as defensive, although Russian forces are likely attempting to bring the Northern Grouping of Forces up closer to its reported planned end strength before possibly intensifying offensive operations in the area.
The likely premature start of Russian offensive operations appears to have undermined Russian success in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian forces continue to leverage their sanctuary in Russian airspace to strike Kharkiv City to devastating effect, likely as part of efforts to depopulate the city and demoralize Ukrainians.
Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities reportedly impacted the effectiveness of select Western weapon systems in Ukraine in 2023 as Ukraine and Russia continue to compete in a technical offense-defense race.

Yeah, I was watching footage yesterday of artillery striking a 'hypermall' in Kharkiv itself, at the peak customer hour. Truly a "Jesus Christ, Russia" moment.   

I'm not sure the Russian offensive was premature so much as an opportunistic probing operation attempting to push while there was mush -- which then, when Ukrainian defensive units started holding ground, morphed into a gradual commitment of more Orks figuring that the main push would be a waste and wasn't ready yet anyway but something ought to be done there to keep at grips with the Uks....

...and now the prep and power of a good chunk of the gathering Russian attack has been blunted and wasted. Boiling the frog slowly to get him to jump out of the pot doesn't always work.

Aside from that minor disagreement, which may not even be a disagreement but a difference in phrasing, I'm gratified to see that I reached a similar result as the ISW! 

[JasonPratt]

500k casualties...once again, 'Jesus Christ, Russia'

Utter madness. If they keep up with this 1k+ per day rate they have going on at the moment, they will hit a million by the end of next year. Sheesh.

I get that they're looking at a demographic dead end in the next ten years, so their only hope is to go now even if it cripples them (further) in their industry and infrastructure.

But I wish they would commit to trying NOT BEING RUSSIA for a while.  They have so much wasted potential to be not only good but awesome, even as a distinct nation-state, but their governmental system doesn't even believe in being good (whether morally or otherwise), only in pretending to be good (ditto) as a marketing ploy. So they have persistently ruined whatever good, potentially or actually, there has ever been in being Russia per se. And if they can make their neighbors suffer worse than they inflict upon themselves, then hey proportionately that makes them better, right?

[ArizonaTank]

Interesting Ukranian assessment of the utility of the M1 Abrams on the Ukraine battlefield... Basically, 'better than a Soviet tank,' but fraught with issues.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/29/world/video/abrams-tanks-ukraine-russia-nick-paton-walsh-digvid

[Jarhead0331]

^I'm sure it has nothing to do with the manner in which they are being used. 

RTFM!

[ArizonaTank]

RTFM!

I'm not ready to go there yet. The Ukrainians are dealing with two things that US commanders never had to deal with when deploying the M1; a contested air superiority environment, and drones (in both recon and guided-munition roles).

[Jarhead0331]

^Valid points, but is that a problem with the M1 itself, or just the nature of the combat environment in which it is being employed? Wouldn't those issues also impact the survivability of German and British tanks, as well? Why is the M1 being singled out?

[FarAway Sooner]

The M1 is being singled out because the media made it out to be an Allmighty Savior of the Battlefield 2 years ago, before the Ukrainians had any.  Now that it's not living up to the hype, they're pretending that it was the military experts (and not the overzealous mediots looking to sell a story) who predicted this would be a game changer.

Much of the media coverage of the Ukrainian war has been a Military Tech Pornfest.  Some of that is just the nature of what sorts of stories draw clicks.  Some of it is because certain vested interests (political and economic) do all that they can to pump up those stories. 

Some of that is because a few early weapons made a real difference.  NATO supplied profligate amounts of 1- and 2-man ATGMs and SAMs (mostly Javelins, NLAWs, and Stingers) in the early months of the war, where the Ukrainian durability against the Russian invasion seemed almost miraculous.

The introduction of the HIMARS had a lasting impact for two reasons:  1) The logistical tail for HIMARS was relatively modest, compared to an Abrams or an F-16;  2) By extending the range of Ukrainian artillery, they put a major crimp in Russian logistics at a time when the Ukrainians were enjoying the most battlefield success of the war.  PATRIOTs and other air defense systems also performed well in protecting Ukrainian cities.

All of these systems were typical of the sorts of high-value/high-cost weapons systems that NATO focused on.  As inventories of those ran low, their effectiveness lessened.  NATO's tardiness in supplying adequate low-value assistance (artillery shells, etc.) compounded the problem.

As did poor execution of the doctrine in question.  The advent of thousands of cheap, disposable recce drones has really changed the definition of "air superiority" on the battlefield.  I'm curious to know what lessons NATO has learned there and whether/how it will affect their own drone procurement strategies.

[JasonPratt]

I wonder if M111 Vulcan APCs, or equivalents thereof, will make a return vs drones. Wouldn't need to be cannons, of course, just the 7.62 minigun varieties. Heh, R2D2 APC drones using old point defense weapons from cold war ships!

I am reliably told they work well against dragons, too. 

https://www.amazon.com/Doomfarers-Coramonde-Brian-Daley-ebook/dp/B005CRDDQE

[JudgeDredd]

^Valid points, but is that a problem with the M1 itself, or just the nature of the combat environment in which it is being employed? Wouldn't those issues also impact the survivability of German and British tanks, as well? Why is the M1 being singled out?

Maybe because CNN is a US organisation - so probably focussing on US kit on the field?

Aren't these early versions of the M1. So maybe the M1 has lack of armour?

Though there are older Leopards out there too.

But yeah - drones are proving deadly to most kit

[Crossroads]

Here's the full CNN article, with full context the clicky-baity title can be put to, well, context.

"We have no aviation and artillery. We have only tank. And it's the problem."

That said, I am sure tons of valuable experience is being gained there regarding the battlefields of today.