Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Putin probably: "Bah, the pitiful rebel Nazi raiding skirmish barely managed to tap a few holes in this Kersk bridge which we will soon be using to rout the invaders from -- ...what? Wait, what are you saying? Why can't we use it to rout...?!"

https://x.com/pravda_eng/status/1824509696230801773

(Ukrainian Pravda via the Enforcer.)

[Crossroads]

Pres Luka today: "WE WILL INSTANTLY NUKE ANY ENEMY CROSSING BORDER OF THE UNION STATE, NO WARNINGS!"

"... for soon, our army is left fighting with sticks and stones. Not that we have nukes, either." (Part left unsaid)

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1823354090480382412

[Uberhaus]

NATO orders Ukrainians to cause earthquake and volcanic eruption in Kamchatka, near far east Russian submarine base:

Well, not quite, but the Russian propagandists will have to direct the blame somewhere.

[JasonPratt]

Sigh, does Russia WANT Gamera? Because this is how you get Gamera. 

[JasonPratt]

Pres Luka today: "WE WILL INSTANTLY NUKE ANY ENEMY CROSSING BORDER OF THE UNION STATE, NO WARNINGS!"

"... for soon, our army is left fighting with sticks and stones. Not that we have nukes, either." (Part left unsaid)

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1823354090480382412

Most recently from Luka: "The chances of Ukraine aggressively crossing our border are very strong!" People have been wondering why he would say that, perhaps to set up a false flag incident -- but now, hm, the quiet part might be, "...so we can haz mil-quip back plz?"

[Uberhaus]

Well, this could be interesting, whether it goes ahead or not remains to be seen.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/kremlin-nemesis-ilya-ponomarev-plans-to-create-putins-nightmare-in-captured-russian-territory

Ilya Ponomarev, a 49-year-old ex-politician now on Russia's list of terrorists and extremists, says the stunning cross-border incursion launched by Kyiv's forces on Aug. 6 presents a new "political opportunity."

"I've been telling Ukrainian authorities for two years that Putin's power is weak, that nobody is defending the border much," Ponomarev tells the Daily Beast. "I have been preparing for this particular moment to begin building a new platform, assemble the new power on the Russian territory—I am ready to lead and risk my life, in any case Russian drones are already targeting me."

[ArizonaTank]

Wanna see a Tesla Cybertruck with a HMG mounted on top?  Wish granted...

Chechen leader Kadyrov grins and drives around in his new toy, then name drops "Musk."

In the video he claims the vehicle is being sent off to fight in the "Special Military Operation." Presumably onto a battlefield with a Tesla charging station.

Queue the "Its Good to be the King" meme...

[JasonPratt]

Queue accepted and improved! -- release the Antonio! "It's so f-ing good to be king!"

(Unironically my favorite part of the musical is reading his lips sneaking f-bombs into the song. I mean, it's a good Christian nativity musical, I just find it hilarious that he went there knowing it would be ADRd in post anyway.)

[Crossroads]

Lawrene Freedman with a new article on Kursk. A long and balanced read as his standard is.

Snippet:

However diligent we are in trying to follow events, and however good we may be in explaining what has already happened and drawing conclusions for the future, our appreciation of a developing situation is unavoidably circumscribed. We tend to respond to disruptive moves such as this in ways that reflect our established views.

Those convinced that Ukraine can turn the tide of war see the attack on Kursk as an exciting indication that at last this may be happening; those who believe that Russia is bound to prevail insist that this is a monumental blunder that will hasten Ukraine's inevitable defeat.

...


After two and a half years of war we should all be wary by now of coming to quick judgements. This is not because we dare not comment until this operation has run its course. There are still things that are worth noting about what has already happened. It is more the need to respect the dialectics of war, the duel between two opposing sides, so that ends shift according to available means. In long-standing and intense conflicts, such as that between Russia and Ukraine, particular moves are rarely decisive.

Then, quite a few observations by him of what has changed, and how.

Ukraine's Invasion of Kursk

https://substack.com/@lawrencefreedman454213/p-147958914

[JasonPratt]

Speaking of Kursk... I mean Kerch... I mean... dang, uh... ..... {checking}... well, the other Kerch, the bridge system leading from the Kuban to the Crimea!

A railway ferry (which today I learned is a thing that exists) used to be the last thing keeping Russian forces in Crimea supplied from this direction.

Used to be.

The Enforcer summarizes developments!

Farewell, railway ferry! I hardly knew ye (existed)!

(Slight correction: the famous bridge still sort of exists, but has not been used by the Russian military for a while, in order to spare it from being wiped out completely, thus allowing some civilian supply to come over -- also taken by the 'train ferry' boats, of which there are now zero remaining out of an original 4.)

[Gusington]

 Before trucking, NYC used to have tons of railway ferries (literally).

[JasonPratt]

 

[JasonPratt]

Come to think of it, I did actually learn this last/this year while playing 18xx games!

[JasonPratt]

Putin's evil Belo Buddy picks up his d-20 and rolls for this week's strategy...

https://x.com/Liveuamap/status/1827775853339586792

...ah, line up most of Belorussia's troops and nearby Wagner mercs on Ukraine's border and threaten to invade.

I can't even figure out what smiley to add to that.

(Currently these are "military exercises" but that's how Putin's own invasion started. Wonder where their hospital units are.)

[Uberhaus]

Well, we aren't hearing any rumblings of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and definitely not Armenia entraining their militaries to send to support Russia as per their treaty obligation.