Russia's War Against Ukraine

[ArizonaTank]

because Putin's Army...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/drunk-colonel-sending-troops-to-their-deaths-sparks-russian-tv-row/ar-AA1rI840?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=a172127ac45c40908c357d3c8fa6aecf&ei=12

[ArizonaTank]

Interesting, well produced video depicting an Ukranian assault, and Russian counter-assault. 

Seems a little like some of those WW2 combat films made by the US Signal Corps...a little one-sided, but still watchable.

Not certain when this was supposed to have happened. But it was posted recently. Still, at least one scene, a Russian SU-25 pilot ejecting looks like something I saw in the first year of the war.

Still, I think it is worth a look.

[FarAway Sooner]

Hard-hitting combat footage.  It took me a moment to realize that the blurred out spots in the video that said "censored" were dead bodies.

As you suggest, the voice-over is a bit fanboyish.  While it's clearly intended as a PR piece, it still gives an awfully good feel for what life is like at the front lines as a team goes about trying to clear trenches.  Thanks for sharing.

[JasonPratt]

Well, hm: South Korea's Defense Minister claims it's likely that Nork troops are fighting in Ukraine and even that they've taken casualties, some of which are fatalities. Presumably if that's true, that would be arty troops?

Not sure what his evidence for that is, or how his claim has been graded by other Defense Intel groups. Note to self, see if ISW has an opinion on that...

[Jarhead0331]

Well, hm: South Korea's Defense Minister claims it's likely that Nork troops are fighting in Ukraine and even that they've taken casualties, some of which are fatalities. Presumably if that's true, that would be arty troops?

Not sure what his evidence for that is, or how his claim has been graded by other Defense Intel groups. Note to self, see if ISW has an opinion on that...

This wouldn't surprise me in the least. In fact, I'd be more surprised if they weren't. Both Russia and Ukraine are increasing efforts to recruit foreign mercenaries. There are now troops from several African nations fighting for both sides. Ukraine has established several embassies in Africa and plans on building six more. These are primarily intended to serve as recruitment posts. Cubans and others from south and Central America have been recruited by Russia, as well.

[Uberhaus]

Six North Korean military observers were killed near Donetsk on October 3,  https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241008-n-korean-soldiers-highly-likely-killed-in-ukraine-seoul  I think ISW mentions it as well.
Hopefully, this doesn't presage the Dear Leader sending large formations, but the France24 article says the South Koreans say the North Koreans are going to. 

Seoul's defence minister, Kim Yong-hyun, told lawmakers Tuesday that it was "highly likely" that the report was true.

"We assess that the occurrence of casualties among North Korean officers and soldiers in Ukraine is highly likely, considering various circumstances," he said.

North Korea is expected to send more foot soldiers to support Russia's war effort, he added.

"The issue of deploying regular troops is highly likely due to the mutual agreements that resemble a military alliance between Russia and North Korea," Kim said.

The most disappointing volunteers for the Russians are that some Gurkhas have joined, really pissing off their elders.  But with the recent Indian military reforms to recruitment there are far less opportunities for them.

[ArizonaTank]

Well, hm: South Korea's Defense Minister claims it's likely that Nork troops are fighting in Ukraine and even that they've taken casualties, some of which are fatalities. Presumably if that's true, that would be arty troops?

Not sure what his evidence for that is, or how his claim has been graded by other Defense Intel groups. Note to self, see if ISW has an opinion on that...

I think Putin and Kim see this as a win-win. Putin gets more "meat" for his "meat attacks," and he doesn't have to worry about their wives complaining. Kim gets cash, less mouths to feed and valuable battle experience for his troops.

Of course of the laws of strongman paranoia say that Kim eventually grows to distrust the guys he sends. These guys are going to be seeing how well Ukrainians and Russians live, compared to what Kim and his goons provide. The troops might get the idea that their whole government is just a ponzi scheme.

[JasonPratt]

Then again, the Beloved Nork looks like he's massing troops on his own border toward South Korea just recently, so.... maybe not so many troops to send to Russia soon? 

I mean, they could just be there as an excuse not to send more troops: "sorry Vlad, we just can't right now, look at all the troops I'm tying up on our border, this was a scheduled exercise, trust me bro!"

[ArizonaTank]

Putin and Kim get another lesson in the law of unintended consequences.

South Korea now talking about sending tanks to Ukraine because of Kim's sending troops to Russia.

I am a little surprised that apparently South Korea is talking about sending BMPs and T-80s that it has in its warehouses (received from Russia after the break-up of the Soviet Union). 

Instead, I would think that South Korea would want to send some of their more modern, homegrown K2 Black Panther MBTs.

South Korea is just starting to take its place as a major arms manufacturer. It has sold K2s to Poland and Turkey for example. So having its K2s playing Russian tank "turret toss" on Ukraine's steppes would only be good for business.

Maybe the K2s come later.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/south-korea-mulls-sending-tanks-to-aid-ukraine-against-russia/ar-AA1rY5v9?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=6fe329f8a5da4193af77ecfb49ea7204&ei=44

[JasonPratt]

Nooooo, not the South Korean Nazi "Black Panthers", just like the SS!

 

Joking aside, that might even be a reason for the reticence.

Another reason might be the North lining up on the DMZ border. 

[FarAway Sooner]

If the Norks are asking for anything from the Russians, I'd bet it was tech transfer or food rather than money.  Which, given what we know about Russian tech, highlights some of the weaknesses of the Nork Army.  Of course that doesn't matter so much, when Seoul's 18 million (?) citizens live within range of current Nork Artillery.

I'd be quite surprised if NK troops weren't being offered up at this point, whether in an "official observer" capacity or as 'mercenaries' who happen to enlist at the company level.

Have any of the NATO countries admitted to sending official observers in on the Ukrainian side, both on Ukrainian soil and near the front lines?  If not, I'd just assume that they are there already as 'civilians' in name only and work for one of the more clandestine intelligence agencies. 

Or perhaps they are there on the Ukrainian side as Academi (formerly Blackwater) employees?  I've always assumed that Academi serves the same function for the US DoD as Wagner Group served for Putin, although Academi also probably has more legitimate independent interests in other countries where the US government isn't quite as involved.

We all know that there's a very blurred line between "observers", "advisors", and "combat infantrymen".  Heck, there's even a blurred line between "official" and "unofficial"!

[JasonPratt]

I think the mercs went there originally as Blackwater employees, but they've been casualtied out by now, so the company has had to send Academi Moore.

 

(Please don't take this as history, I made it up purely for the joke, because I thought somehow of GI Jane.)

[JasonPratt]

So if Russian network TV, run by Putin and his regime, decide to start calling for quits to the war, does that mean they're rebelling against Putin?

Or is it more like how Stalin-controlled media (including his own court poet) started whining about how weak and sucky and ineffective the Soviet military was in the wake of their stunning victory against the Mannerheim Line? i.e. reverse propaganda setting up foreign expectations on one hand (don't fear us we stink!) and internal expectations on the other (time to ranger up, comrades, and learn our lessons from this exercise).

Of course Putin doesn't have a victory in the worst possible conditions against a defense everyone but Russia thought could never be broken by any military in the world. But he might be using his media to soft pedal a brake to the war for rest and refit before Russia gets dragged completely down the sump-hole sooner rather than later.

Anyway a short video from Business Basics on the start of course-correction by the Russian media. (Note that I'm suspicious of BB's provenance and intentions, and they definitely clickbait hard, so take them with a grain of salt.)

[JasonPratt]

Remember a few weeks ago when Russia threw 50+ IFVs at the Ukrainian east front line, and the Uks munched it up like PacMan eating pellets, and I thought like a moron the Russians were counterattacking the Kursk salient?

Well, don't worry! It turns out I'm not a moron, only a prophet!

50,000 Russian troops came to the rescue of Kursk, 3 to 1 odds in their favor!

50% of them may survive to go home.

 

[ArizonaTank]

18 North Korean troops desert after arrival at front.

Don't know if this is just a blip, or a future trend.

But doesn't look good for Kim. I'm sure Kim will find something in the Ruthless Dictator's Handbook to keep his guys from running. Some possible picks from history are; threatening family members, disciplinary troops in the rear with orders to shoot deserters, and if Kim really wanted to be nostalgic, he could try a return of the old Roman trick of Decimation.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/north-korean-troops-deserting-ukraine-frontline-days-after-arrival-report/ar-AA1smcBI?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=0fb68c6b10d647f695aaa5b5f55b6fe2&ei=20