Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Crossroads]

Welcome back, Disruptor-in-Chief

https://x.com/DanielKral1/status/1854094498025840706

[JasonPratt]

Now North Korea is involved in the war against Europe, with a response so muted it makes crickets sound like Black Sabbath in their heyday.

Me: heh, metal crickets, that's--

Norks: --THAT'S WHAT OUR GLORIOUS LEADERS KEEP SAYING!!

[ArizonaTank]

Norks: --THAT'S WHAT OUR GLORIOUS LEADERS KEEP SAYING!!

Well, it doesn't matter in the big picture, but apparently the North Korean troops are "gorging" on internet access while in Russia, including porn.

"gorging" is Politico's word, not mine...

What's next? Painting skimpily clad women on their tanks?

https://www.politico.eu/article/pentagon-north-korean-troops-pornography-vladimir-putin-russia-war-in-ukraine/

[Sir Slash]

I would be very careful Norks. Little Kim is watching....

[al_infierno]

Putin must be thrilled with today's news!

[Jarhead0331]

Putin must be thrilled with today's news!

I guess that is one thing more than 72,000,000 Americans have in common with Putin.

[al_infierno]

Putin must be thrilled with today's news!

I guess that is one thing more than 72,000,000 Americans have in common with Putin.

One of several things, I'm sure!

[Jarhead0331]

Putin must be thrilled with today's news!

I guess that is one thing more than 72,000,000 Americans have in common with Putin.

One of several things, I'm sure!

[JasonPratt]

Putin is just being an opportunistic troll. He said earlier in an interview he hoped the other person would win. No doubt he has plans for each, and plans irrespective of each.

The relevant strategic point in this case is, does Putin envision an exit ramp from his ongoing disaster this way? And is he willing to pay any related cost, against sunk costs?

[al_infierno]

Yes, I'm sure Putin's just trolling about his enthusiasm that the president more likely to withdraw support from Ukraine got elected.  Another brilliant gambit!

[Sir Slash]

You mean as opposed to the President who gives them enough to keep getting their people killed but not enough to actually win? I'll bet Putin suddenly discovers he has a Peace-Loving side and tries to cut some kind of deal before the New Sheriff gets into town. A smart move. 

[Crossroads]

You mean as opposed to the President who gives them enough to keep getting their people killed but not enough to actually win? I'll bet Putin suddenly discovers he has a Peace-Loving side and tries to cut some kind of deal before the New Sheriff gets into town. A smart move. 

I for one believe fear of escalation is today's appeasement, begging for more aggression. Why not, as there are no consequences. Mush and chamberlains all around. Did a churchill just step in? To be found out. I am cautiously optimistic again.

[Jarhead0331]

Yes, I'm sure Putin's just trolling about his enthusiasm that the president more likely to withdraw support from Ukraine got elected.  Another brilliant gambit!

I'm not sure exactly where you're getting this from. Trump has never said he is going to "withdraw support" from Ukraine. To the contrary, he has said that if Russia refuses to negotiate and accept certain terms, he will dramatically increase material support for Ukraine. On the flip side, I'm sure it means that he will also put pressure on Ukraine to accept certain terms that may not be desirable, or else. That is simply how you make a deal and in my business, a good settlement usually means both sides walk away pissed.

What we know with certainty is that Trump wants the war to end and that he believes he can accomplish that quickly. I'm not sure why anyone would take issue with this position in principle, unless he or she has a major stake in the military industrial complex. Trump's intentions are purposefully vague, which is part of his effectiveness when it comes to strategic and foreign policy. He is unpredictable and none of his potential enemies really know what he will do.

Regardless, I'm ok talking about Trump as his landslide victory may impact the strategic balance, but let's please continue to avoid anything that crosses obvious lines. I let one derogative comment slide, but let's all help each other stay focused and rational.

[JasonPratt]

"If you take one more step into Ukraine, I'll bomb the shit out of you."

"No you won't."

"Well, I might. You don't know!" 

Even if that story is made up somehow, Trump's public account of it signals some intentions, and his subsequent explanation is valid: if Putin thinks there's even a 5% chance of being killed for advancing farther into Ukraine, then there's at least a 5% chance Putin will wait until the next administration and see whether or not they're willing for him to take Kiev as long as he pinky swears not to go any farther. 

(To be fair it's possible I'm mis-remembering what Biden said publicly back when Putin was lining up for the kickoff. This is a long thread, but I recall we talked about it at the time.)

Trump has also publicly said that he wants Russia (as well as Ukraine) to be a strong nation of prosperous people; we'll have to wait and see if that factors into his negotiation pitch. One of his stated basic principles has been that every nation wants to be successful at being their nation; with the corollary that he wants to help them do that even though, like they do for their own nations, he's going to put his own nation first.

Past experience in his administration suggests he's also at least somewhat serious when he says {activating Trumpian voice}, "People are DYING, I want to stop the DYING!"

Will a supervillain try to take advantage of those things for his own purposes? No doubt! How that works out in practice, we'll be seeing in the next few months -- most likely including moves by Putin (for better and/or for worse) before the Biden administration hands over.

[Crossroads]

Is Russia's economy doing much worse than we think, or do they believe that a lame duck period gives them total freedom? This seems so reckless. What is going on here 

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/a-new-nightmare-scenario-emerges/