Assad Falls

[Sir Slash]

Fox News is reporting tonight that Syrian rebels have captured Damascus and the dictator Bashar Assad has fled the country for parts unknown.  Thoughts? Short term, can only be like a dream come true for the long suffering Syrians. Long term, could be lots of trouble brewing all over the whole region in the days ahead. 

[Crossroads]

I recall reading the Syrian bases are key for the logisitics of sustaining Russian black ops in Africa.

Here's hoping that capability will soon be if not gone then greatly diminished.

[Pete Dero]

Short term, can only be like a dream come true for the long suffering Syrians.

Let us wait and see how the replacement does. I do not think we will suddenly see a new democracy emerge :

The most prominent and formidable one of those rebel groups is Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), also known as the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant. HTS was founded by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a military commander who gained experience as a young fighter for al Qaeda against the United States in Iraq during the US invasion before his capture and imprisonment in Iraq.

The leader of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was also involved in its formation.

But its jihadist ideology appeared to be its driving force rather than revolutionary zeal.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce313jn453zo
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/02/middleeast/rebel-groups-syria-explainer-intl/index.html

[Jarhead0331]

Look at very recent history for an idea of what is to come. What happened to Iraq after Saddam was deposed? What happened in Libya after Qaddafi was deposed? Peace, stability and democracy are not on the list of immediate possibilities.

[Silent Disapproval Robot]

Didn't Gen. Wesley Clark say they'd come up with a plan to topple 7 countries in 5 years right after 9/11?  Iraq, Syria, Lebannon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Iran?

These colour revolutions and regime changes don't seem to achieve anything but mass death, destabilization, and waves of refugees.

[Jarhead0331]

TLDR; What a mess.

[Jarhead0331]

Another good summary by Ward...

[Sir Slash]

Good video.

[JasonPratt]

Maybe the best thing (relatively) to happen, is Israel pushing ground forces into Syria to secure a buffer zone in the Golan Heights to keep Islamists from shelling populations in Israel again. The IAF has been systematically eliminating the prior Syrian military tech on the ground as well, so that they won't fall into the hands of various civil war factions. Including bio-chem facilities that Syria had been using against their own populations.

To be clear, I haven't heard that Israeli ground forces are in Damascus (although I noticed at least one clickbaity/scam titled video earlier this morning along that line). I kind of doubt that will happen, or not anytime soon. (Strictly speaking Damascus, like Tyre and Sidon, lies within the Biblical sphere of prophetic Israeli rule, which could have some bearing on future events, as it has had some bearing on past events, in various ways.)

Anyway. The other big winner so far in the Syrian civil war is undoubtedly Turkey, who will also benefit from taking over supply for problematic forces in Lebanon, thanks to Iran's logistics to the area being largely snapped. Unclear how their NATO status will affect their moves in the region yet. I know historically there are many groups who would rather see the whole area glassed than Turkish control re-established. But some key buffer zones between Turkey and Israel are becoming a lot more fluffy (so to speak). I would not in the least be surprised if an official war between Israel and Turkey kicks off in the next 5 to 10 years, though I'd like to be wrong about that.

[Jarhead0331]

More updates...Covers possible Russian evacuations and Israeli operations in the Golan Heights.

[solops]

OK, you guys can quote me on this,,,,I predict interesting times in the Middle East!


solops
Graduate of the Curt Gowdy School of Commentary

[Windigo]

Seriously, when have they not been interesting?

[JasonPratt]

And Windy's still-living testimony about that carries special weight!   

[Windigo]

They never mention David was an asshole with that sling. Little bastard would practice on my well buckets.

[solops]

Interesting....