Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

Watching the Norks bumble around in the Kursk area (et al), makes me feel sorry for the Norks on one hand, and makes me appreciate the relative professionalism of the Russians on the other. 

[ArizonaTank]

Some Russian units are apparently refusing orders to attack across the Dnieper to Kherson.

If this sort of quiet mutiny continues, it may be the beginning of collapse, but not necessarily.

In the spring of 1917 for example, after years of human wave assaults, a handful of French units refused to attack. But the 1917 mutiny never got to the point of army collapse. The war continued for almost another year-and-a-half. The biggest effect of the mutiny was that the French high command became more careful with the lives of their troops.   

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-commanders-refusing-suicidal-orders-to-cross-dnieper-river-report/ar-AA1wnGWH?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=ee6f7cb2bc174ab1acdc297260561c09&ei=10

[Crossroads]

'Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action'

Strike two, then.

Strike three. Enemy action it is, at least according to Ian Fleming.

WSJ: Finland Seizes Tanker Linked to Russia After More Undersea Baltic Cables Cut

I guess we should not be surprised, would this be allowed to continue, it continues. Bayonets and mush.

What I did not see coming was confiscating the vessel. I hope they keep it until the ship insurance pays for the damage caused (and was it even insured?), or in case that does not pay off, confiscate the vessel together with its cargo for good.

There are concerns for a major oil damage on purpose, from what I've read. Very easy to have a ship on the rocks in Baltic Sea, even by accident. Russian Navy has experience, even, from the Cold War days. 

[JasonPratt]

What I did not see coming is the Finnish Inquisitional submarine! 

......laying up a few balls there to slam dunk through the net, annnnnd go!

[Crossroads]

Whisky on the rocks, near Swedish naval base of Karlskrona, on their territorial waters. So that was already in 1981. I recall it was like almost a decade later.

Another enduring image was the Soviet cruise missile going AWOL and crashing in Finnish Lapland. That was 1984. OMG, OMG, is there a nuclear warhead? Will it explode? Turns out it was a target missile, like Soviets said from the beginning. Just that nobody believed them.

What I remember from that incident was the local Santa's Village entrepreneur who saw this as a once in a life time chance for global marketing. Any newsreel from the site, he was there, dressed as Santa, telling everyone where his village resides. "Not far from here, come on over".

They even made a postcard: Greetings from Inari (the town nearby where the crash took place). Good times.

[JasonPratt]

Yesterday: be Russians.
Target: Plyokhovo.
Use: Norky assault meat.
Success: surprisingly so!
Propaganda: not so much victory.
Problem: Nork conscripts won your fight.
Solution: Burn Nork casualties and make others put on masks.
Result: ...profit?
Next: Oleksandriia.
Propaganda value: Ukrainian territory advance woo!
Propaganda risk: Surviving Nork conscripts.
Evaluation: probably a trap set by the Uks which is why they gave up Plyokhovo.
Solution: Send surviving Nork conscripts.
Result: No more Nork conscripts to take credit for Plyokhovo.
Problem: No more Ork conscripts either, which is why Norks must be used for any advances.
Solution: Throw Norks at Kurilovka in different direction.
Result: No more Nork conscripts.
Situation: Normal, AFU.

[ArizonaTank]

....
Problem: Nork conscripts won your fight.
Solution: Burn Nork casualties and make others put on masks.
Result: ...profit?
Next: Oleksandriia.
....

I will not be surprised if we see a battalion of South Korean "volunteers" in Kursk, fighting for Ukraine in the next six months.

[JasonPratt]

I sort of expected them there already, but the Sorks have got political problems of their own to sort our first.

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, update on Russia's ten thousand remaining tanks! 

Tukhachevsky is not amused in hell. 

[JasonPratt]

The Enforcer and Anna from Ukraine passing along news about the first major Ukrainian offensive of the year starting earlier today (Ukrainian time of course), pushing toward Kursk and taking (a little?) more Russian ground. At this point, based on some other reports I've seen, they may have decided the Nork forces have been played out. It could also be a political move to score some more ground for swapping during enforced peace talks later when the new US administration plugs in at the end of January.

[Jarhead0331]

Thought some might find this interview interesting...

[ArizonaTank]

Nice Daily Mail nuts and bolts overview of Ukrainian drone war, and how it has changed since the early days of the war.

Good discussion and overview of how Ukrainians are modifying small commercial drones.

Also a nice discussion of Ukrainian drone unit organization and tactics.

Also a nice sobering analysis that clearly states that drones aren't winning or losing the war by themselves. The most effective weapon is still artillery.

The video states that only about 1/5 of drone attacks have any success. The vast majority are misses. However, the threat of drones has changed the behavior of the troops in light of otherwise contested airspace.

[JasonPratt]

Well even spotting artillery seems like a big win for drones. Of course we only see the hits not the misses for drone-drops of their own munitions, but arty strikes must be a lot easier with drones. (Then again I haven't watched the video yet, and now that I think of it I don't see much mention of HIMARS-o-clock anymore.)

[ArizonaTank]

There have been a few 'Ukraine is beating the pants off the Russians'-type headlines in the past few days about a Ukrainian offensive in Kursk.

Zelensky claims an entire North Korean battalion is toast.

Curious, I wanted to see what ISW says. The ISW story, while positive for Ukraine, is pretty far from a war-winning offensive.

ISW says:
Ukrainian forces resumed offensive operations in at least three areas within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and made tactical advances on January 5. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted multiple roughly company-sized mechanized assaults in the Berdin-Novosotnitsky direction (northeast of Sudzha) in three waves of attack using roughly a battalion's worth of armored vehicles.
...
Russian milbloggers largely expressed concern that the renewed Ukrainian effort in Kursk Oblast may be a diversionary effort and claimed that it is too early to determine whether these operations in Kursk could be part of a future main effort.
...
Russian sources expressed concern about the Russian military's ability to react to Ukraine's ongoing combined arms efforts to integrate electronic warfare (EW) and long-range strike capabilities with ground operations. Several Russian milbloggers claimed on January 5 that Ukrainian EW interference during Ukrainian assaults in Kursk Oblast prevented Russian forces from operating drones in the area, degrading Russian forces' ability to defend against Ukrainian mechanized attacks.
...
Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted HIMARS strikes near Bolshoye Soldatskoye and other unspecified areas in Kursk Oblast to prevent Russian forces from deploying reinforcements, artillery systems, and drone operators.[18] Widespread Russian concern over Russia's ability to respond to improved Ukrainian EW technology and long-range strike capabilities indicates that Russian forces may be struggling to quickly adapt to Ukrainian battlefield innovations. Reports that Ukrainian forces are using long-range fires to interdict Russian rear areas and EW to degrade Russian drones in support of Ukrainian mechanized advances indicate that Ukrainian forces operating in Kursk are employing more effective combined arms tactics.



Here is the link to the article:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-5-2025

[nelmsm]

Wonder what the casualty rate is for the North Koreans by now.  Will they send replacements from home?