Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JudgeDredd]

I think Trump is so deep inside Putin's head

I think he's deep inside another part of Putin's anatomy.

Anyway...wee jibe. Sorry.

I would love you to be right Slash. But I'm fear you may be giving him too much credit.

I will come back and shake your virtual hand if I'm wrong

[al_infierno]

I'll tell you what I think is going on here. Trump is a Hunter. And right now he's hunting a wolf named, 'Putin'. He knows the wolf is smart...and wary. So he has to use just the right kind of bait to draw the wolf out of the forest, into the open where he can get a shot at him. You can't just kill a chicken and get this wolf out of the trees. This old wolf craves meat, bloody, red meat.

So Trump starts grousing about Europe not toting their load and saying kind things about the Russian people. And predictably the press goes crazy followed by the Neo Cons, then the Euro Cons then the Putin Haters, there's a lot of them. And this gets the wolf's attention. He then picks a fight with Zelensky, then one with Macron maybe and or Sholtz and makes sure it gets nasty and personal and before long it looks like the whole NATO alliance is collapsing. Just the kind of bait the wolf cannot resist.

He knows it probably can't be for real, but the smell of all that blood...is irresistible. So maybe he thinks he will take just one more step closer, just to see for sure. And the wolf doesn't notice that he has stepped out of the forest, into the open...and right into the Hunter's crosshairs.  This may not work, but I think Trump is so deep inside Putin's head that he's got him chasing his own tail trying to figure-out if it's real or not.

Ah, the good ol' Advanced WWI Tactics with General Melchett (skip to 1:25):

"If we attack where the line is strongest, then Fritz will think our reconnaisance is a total shamble! This will lull him into a false sense of security, and then next week we can attack where the line is actually badly defended, and win the greatest victory since the Winchester Flower Arranging Team beat Harrow by 12 sore bottoms to 1!"

In all seriousness, what exactly are you saying is Trump's plan?  Pick fights with our allies to make us look weak and bait Russia into open conflict?  What would we gain strategically by doing this?

[Pete Dero]

And right now he's hunting a wolf named, 'Putin'. He knows the wolf is smart...and wary. So he has to use just the right kind of bait to draw the wolf out of the forest, into the open where he can get a shot at him. 

And then blame the bait  .


I'm not sure I understand what you mean by 'get a shot at him'.
Does this mean actual combat between US/Nato and Russia ?

I don't see how weakening your alliance can help you in diplomacy.

[Jarhead0331]

Slash, personally, I think you're giving Trump too much credit. While he is definitely playing some form of a "game", he campaigned on ending the war and that is exactly what he trying to do. I honestly don't think he cares who gives up more in the end, so long as he can say the war is over and it would have gone on with millions and millions of more dead people and billions and billions of US tax payer dollars spent without Trump.

I think at the moment, he sees Zelensky as more of an impediment to peace than Russia, and as a result, he is exerting more pressure on Ukraine. Zelensky also made the mistake of being critical of Trump. That caused an immediate shift in Trump's tone. We all know how Trump responds to personal criticism...like an 8 year old. Notice how quiet Putin is now? I haven't heard much out of him, at least in the mainstream. This is smart and most likely because he knows the old maxim, "when your enemy is making a mistake, don't interrupt him."

The Trump doctrine has brought some level of chaos and uncertainty to NATO. As I stated earlier, I think this is by design, and can lead to a positive outcome, but I would far prefer if Trump applied his pressure on Ukraine and NATO in a more discrete public manner. Right now, we can only assume he is doing the reverse with Russia.

[Sir Slash]

I agree with most of what you say, and I could go on and on about how Trump feels he had this problem taken care in the first term only to have follow-on crew screw it all up...and thusly in his view, everybody else re-created this mess for him to have to come along and have to re-clean it all up. Again.

But the first big step is to get Putin to the Peace Table. How does he do that when Putin said he wouldn't negotiate. The first step is to put EVERYTHING on the table, erase ALL the Red Lines. Putin can't say no to that. And if that gets him to the table, he's accomplished his first goal. And whetted Putin's appetite for something he's wanted all his KGB career...NATO falling apart. That's his draw, like a Blackjack dealer letting you win a few hands until he drops the bomb on you.

Once Putin's at the table, Trump has him on HIS ground where he's at his best, making deals. What the deal is and how he gets done I don't know but I believe he knows something the rest of us doesn't. And he always tries to get in his opponent's head, throw him off guard, make him uncomfortable, screw with him for lack of a better word. And maybe the other guy makes a mistake or just gets down right afraid of this guy he cannot figure-out. Maybe. Recall if you will, Putin all but endorsed Biden saying he was more, 'predictable' than Trump. I think he can't see what Trump's up to with all the sniping at everybody and thinks, 'This guy must have something I don't know about or else he would never be acting like this'. That's to Trump's advantage.

And, no I do not mean he's actually going to kill Putin or go to war. He's trying to drag Putin into deep water where he's never been before and where Trump has all the advantages. I don't know if this works or not, Putin's pretty crafty too, but at least he will have gotten Putin's attention and concern over what he will do next IF the Peace talks fail.

[Jarhead0331]

I don't agree with it all, but a fairly blistering analysis that must be posted, nevertheless.

[Crossroads]

Thanks, Jar. That is a brilliant interview and analysis indeed, and captures the mood over here quite well.

If - and that seems to be the question here - we are to take the administration's communication until now as a guide to what they are driving for, I certainly am struggling for words in front of it all as well.

[Sir Slash]

I saw that today earlier too. Time will tell who's right and who's wrong here I am certain.

[JudgeDredd]

It's hard to see where this is going - but if you just take things at face value, I think Trump is setting Europe up for a fall.

By suggesting European troops need to protect Ukraine whilst at the same time removing any US backing discussing economic deals with Russia (massive, I think was the phrase used - he does love to exaggerate) simply means whatever peace deal is struck, the US gets Russian money and business, Russia gets it's finances back, it re-arms and then attacks a Europe without the US.

Whatever peace deal Trump is looking to sign, by welcoming Russia out of the cold economically, he's allowing them to re-arm for phase 2.

I mean - it's his country and he can do whatever he likes - but that in no way reflects the historical position of the US on Europe and Russia. It's turned on it's head. And whilst he's making a deal that will allow Russia to re-arm and sending European troops into the mix - it's just Europe - in it's entirety - that will be engulfed in war with the US sitting on the sidelines.

Jeremy Bowen pointed out today that the "special relationship" that "exists" between the US and the UK simply is a fiction of our imagination. Something we've made up over the years to keep Britain relevant on the world stage. We'll see - but it's hard to argue against that at the moment. Britain has introduced a new raft of sanctions against Russia (I have to say - WTF were there any sanctions left to implement at a later date anyway?) whilst the US is looking to remove them.

As I said - I'm just looking at the information as it comes out.

[Jarhead0331]

The war has to end and Russia is not going to be destroyed without a World War. What does a deal look like then, recognizing these two pretty obvious truths?

Trump is looking for ways to stop the destructive war in a way that, in his view, benefits everyone, but especially the US. What else should he be trying to achieve, particularly given his mandate. The only way to achieve peace is if the benefits of stopping the killing outweigh the benefits of continuing it.

In any event, this sounds like progress to me.

[Skoop]

I've seen some speculation that stopping the war now might cause the economic collapse in russia that the sanctions never could do.  Switching from war economy to domestic might crush russia, hence the economic carrot trump is dangling to putin might be more leverage than you think.  To get this done, it might warp some peoples minds, but it might take some outside the box thinking. 

[JudgeDredd]

The only way to achieve peace is if the benefits of stopping the killing outweigh the benefits of continuing it.

Thankfully we didn't feel like that in 1939 - or President Macron would be getting introduced as Reichsfuhrer Macron.

There is another way to achieve piece - but there's no stomach for it.

Whatever peace deal he strikes, I'll see you in a few years when we're all speculating on a massive Russian exercise taking place in Belarus.

[Jarhead0331]

The only way to achieve peace is if the benefits of stopping the killing outweigh the benefits of continuing it.

Thankfully we didn't feel like that in 1939 - or President Macron would be getting introduced as Reichsfuhrer Macron.

There is another way to achieve piece - but there's no stomach for it.

Whatever peace deal he strikes, I'll see you in a few years when we're all speculating on a massive Russian exercise taking place in Belarus.

Putin's Russia is no Hitler's Germany and I think the analogy is misleading at best, as widespread as it may be, and this thinking is, in part, responsible for prolonging the war. Furthermore, the geopolitical world of today is a vastly different landscape than it was in 1939. There is virtually no comparison.

I certainly see and respect your perspective, but I somewhat disagree...but you are right. one way or another, time will tell and it may take a few years before we know.

[JasonPratt]

A pretty critically balanced take by BusBas, with some choice satire about the idea Zel is a dictator.

As some prior articles may have indicated, Trump seems to be reacting publicly against Pres Z promising to agree to a protection treaty and then coming back with a nope (because the dictatorial Z can't actually unilaterally agree and enforce such treaties  ).

This also fits the context of VPVance diplomatically explaining that Trump needs public ego support but is very willing to discuss and take criticism privately.

[Skoop]

I've felt that way for along time with the 1939 analogy.  But realize, none of the countries in the 1930s put up the fight that Ukraine had done.  I feel the damage has been done and the message has been sent.  War in Europe is far too costly for all parties, I would bet putin won't be taking this step again.  Europe should still rearm and prepare in serious fashion, but I would be shocked if russia could muster another army to attack a Nato member.