Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

By the way, when Ben briefly mentions that even Biden eventually got pissed off at Zelensky acting ungrateful in his demands for stuff to continue fighting, he's talking about a phone call from back in June.

NBC News brought this up through NBC Pentagon Correspondent Courtney Kube. Unfortunately this happened during the Youtube streaming show "NBC News Now" and I can't find an independent clip of it yet at NBC News, nor anywhere on that show (or any of the "Now" shows). I could post a link to the Liberal Hivemind bringing it up, but that seems overly problematic.  (And while he uses source footage of course, he doesn't provide a link.)

Hopefully an excerpt can be found by someone -- I suspect the clip precedes the contention at the WH  -- but I need to sleep, long day tomorrow. For example, I just realized I abbreviated the White House as WH3!!

[JudgeDredd]

So the US has stopped all military aid to Ukraine...all whilst slapping tariff on Canada and EU countries, hurtng them financially at a time when they are going to need a shit ton of money to pick up the slack.

If Trump is not a Russian asset, it's hard to believe they could've deliberately picked a better one by themselves.

Please don't think my comment is genuinely thinking Trump is a Russian asset. Its just cheeky dig. But still, he's doing their dirty work very, very well...presumably without even being asked.

By the way, as WWII has come up a bit (sometimes by moi), The US population was dead against getting involved in WWII. It happens.

[Anguille]

Ukraine has supported the US in Irak and Kuwait and had 6'000 soldiers in Afghanistan for 14 years...a very good ally of the US even if they were not NATO members...

[Crossroads]

A reminder of where we are with negotiations.

• The U.S. has publicly stated that the deal on the table freezes the current frontline, keeps Ukraine outside NATO, and will have no U.S. troops on the ground. (And we want those minerals too.)
• Russia agreed to come to the table but has said nothing else. Except for nuking Europe if there are European peacekeepers, for instance, but let's not go there. The US proposal is an acceptable starting position however. (And they have minerals, too)
• Zelenskyi agreed to come to the table but wants security guarantees. Once bitten, twice shy. He has been bitten a dozen times already by Putin's broken agreements.

As for why security guarantees, an integral part of lasting peace, cannot be discussed before negotiations even begin, there is no explanation. There is no peace without keeping Russia at bay.

It is quite something if Zelenskyi is portrayed as an obstacle to peace.  Let alone as the obstacle.

[JudgeDredd]

As for why security guarantees, an integral part of lasting peace, cannot be discussed before negotiations even begin, there is no explanation.

The explanation - in my own little warped heed - is clear. Russia went to the table with the US early on (even though Rubio stated they hadn't spoken with the Russians in 3 years) and said we're not budging...do you worst.

I believe this focussed the US Administration on Ukraine - Trump has a promise to keep after all (and a Nobel Peace Prize to win)  - and they decided that's where their focus should be.

Of course Russia don't want NATO in Ukraine. Nor do they want any European forces "operating outside of NATO" in Ukraine. They want the land they've got and they are quite happy plodding along inching their way closer to Kyiv. All they have to do is wait for NATO to crack - which shows some signs of happening now. He'll keep walking along that ridge waiting for the split to widen. His next steps, whilst he's "let off the hook" by the US Administration (some of whom can't even say out loud that Russia invaded Ukraine) are likely disinformation in Europe in order to break up that alliance or at the very least fracture it to further reduce Ukraine support - all the while building bigger and stronger.

He'll get what he wants whilst the current US Administration are in power and whilst the EU do not grasp the seriousness of their situation - that US support is no longer there.

[JudgeDredd]

One last thing - and then I'll disappear for a while...

Here's what I think (as if you haven't had enough).

I think Russia, in the early meeting with the US, said they're giving up nothing and I think if that's the case, Trump needs an out.

After the Oval Office ambush, Trump said he could come back when he wants peace.

Since that Oval Office ambush, Z has been doing the rounds, saying he needs the US. He's been thanking them thorough his arse to appease the thin skinned Trump. He's said he's ready to do a mineral deal.

Then the US halts all military aid.

Trump is framing this as Ukraine's fault or, more specifically, Z's fault so Trump can say if they wanted peace, I could've done it.

And all this because they talked to Russia and found out Russia wants nothing to do with peace whilst Ukraine is a sovereign state.

I also think that's why the US is so adamant that there will be no military assistance to Ukraine in any peace deal. I believe they know - because they've been told - that they will continue until Ukraine does not exist.

Also - this just in...

[solops]

One last thing - and then I'll disappear for a while...

Here's what I think (as if you haven't had enough).

I think Russia, in the early meeting with the US, said they're giving up nothing and I think if that's the case, Trump needs an out.

After the Oval Office ambush, Trump said he could come back when he wants peace.

Since that Oval Office ambush, Z has been doing the rounds, saying he needs the US. He's been thanking them thorough his arse to appease the thin skinned Trump. He's said he's ready to do a mineral deal.

Then the US halts all military aid.

Trump is framing this as Ukraine's fault or, more specifically, Z's fault so Trump can say if they wanted peace, I could've done it.

And all this because they talked to Russia and found out Russia wants nothing to do with peace whilst Ukraine is a sovereign state.

I also think that's why the US is so adamant that there will be no military assistance to Ukraine in any peace deal. I believe they know - because they've been told - that they will continue until Ukraine does not exist.

Also - this just in...

+1

[Tripoli]

Here's an interesting take on the geo-strategic game being played:
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russia-and-the-us-diplomatic-choreography

For those who want a digested version, here are, IMHO, the key bits:

"Unlike what some have claimed, Trump isn't trying to pull a so-called "Reverse Nixon" by incentivizing Russia to turn against China like his predecessor half a century ago incentivized China to turn against the erstwhile USSR, which is unrealistic to expect in any case. Rather, as explained in the analysis about creative energy diplomacy, the purpose is to incentivize Russia into placing limits on its resource and eventually military cooperation with China in order to erode its strategic advantages vis-à-vis the US.

From Trump's view, this will avert the scenario of Russia turbocharging China's superpower rise and thus even the odds of reaching a grand deal with the People's Republic that'll be more in the US' favor, while Putin sees this as managing the global balance of power. From his perspective, Russia is incentivizing the US into relieving pressure upon it and unofficial paying reparations for the proxy war via investments into its resource industry and economy as a whole, all while redirecting the US' military focus elsewhere.

The Kissinger-inspired pragmatism behind this arrangement is predictably opposed by each country's most zealous supporters, both at the civil society and state levels, but more on the US' side than Russia's. Furthermore, even though China officially supports the emerging Russian-US rapprochement, it's likely still very suspicious of this process but is playing it cool for now in order to not attract negative attention. These trends must be managed by both parties in order for their envisaged "New Détente" to succeed."

[Toonces]

Forget it, I'm too angry to even debate this right now.  Post deleted.

[JasonPratt]

I agree it's very plausible that Putin spat and said "no way", and this is complexifying the negotiations beyond what Trump thought he could handle. But Trump didn't pause Ukrainian aid until after Z looked like getting what to Z would seem like a better deal -- and until after Z declared that the war would (now) continue on for a long, long time.

So Z's still committed to peace through attritional victory (presumably outlasting Putin's regime which Z has often said can be the only effective peace for Ukraine); and if so then there's no reason for the US to increase the risk of WW3 by giving Ukraine enough to retake the Donbas, the Crimea, and keep however much buffer zone in Kursk they can hold. Part of any nation's strategy being not to trigger WW3!

I think Z will still try to angle for a modified version of the r.e.m.r deal, and Trump might settle for granting it without allowing for escalation. It'll be more messy, but from Z's perspective he can't trust accepting the kind of victory Trump wants to help him get. And if that's true, which seems very obviously true, then what's the point in seriously blaming Trump for being the one to zorch the Ukrainian victory Trump was offering and which Zelensky doesn't want?

At that point, "pausing" the US aid (which can be unpaused at a moment's notice) is the responsible thing: it doesn't give Z enough power (combined now with the EU deal) to push Putin into triggering WW3, and by the way cuts down on US governmental spending (for now). Even then I expect the pause will be adjusted to fit the EU's commitment to Z's victory plan. Whether Zelensky can convince Trump to risk American civilians as a WW3 tripwire escalation by agreeing to a modified r.e.m deal, without enough US military escalation to adding risk to WW3, remains to be seen. I kind of think Trump will go for it.

[JudgeDredd]

And on it goes....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cly28qvp83pt?post=asset%3Ad90653c7-605c-4918-a5da-4fcd81eeac70#post

[Anguille]

That's probably the worst so far. I don't know how you can justify that.

[Pete Dero]

National Security Adviser Mike Waltz : the US military has paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
But they did share this decision by the media with Russia    .

[Pete Dero]

Today on Russian TV :

Solovyov noted, "I will watch Trump going to war with Europe—it will give me great pleasure. Here is how it will go: the annexation of Greenland, the disintegration of NATO, the destruction of the European Union that Trump will no longer recognize, and the economic war between America and Europe."

Solovyov expressed his concern about Ukrainian troops outnumbering Russia's Armed Forces.
He urged the Kremlin to increase the numbers of Russian troops, now that the U.S. aid is stopped, and Russia has a chance to take all of Ukraine.

Before on Russian TV :

State TV experts continually explained that during Trump's first term, his desire to bond with Putin was constrained by his hawkish team. They asserted that now Trump is re-elected, he would finally come through and fulfill Moscow's dreams—by cutting off aid to Ukraine, destroying relations with allies, disrupting internal workings of the U.S. government, lifting Russian sanctions, and even withdrawing America from NATO.

[JudgeDredd]

Guys

Do ANY Americans on here feel comfortable with the situation between the US Administration and Russia?