Russia's War Against Ukraine

[FarAway Sooner]

I'm not saying Trump is a Russian puppet.  BUT he couldn't be cooperating a whole lot more with them if he were. 

There are rational arguments to be made about the US changing its policy to force Ukraine to the negotiating table.  There are rational arguments to be made that it is in the US' best interests to reduce defense spending for Ukraine.  But there are no arguments as for how we're going about it.  Just my $0.02.

[al_infierno]

I'm not saying Trump is a Russian puppet.  BUT he couldn't be cooperating a whole lot more with them if he were. 

There are rational arguments to be made about the US changing its policy to force Ukraine to the negotiating table.  There are rational arguments to be made that it is in the US' best interests to reduce defense spending for Ukraine.  But there are no arguments as for how we're going about it.  Just my $0.02.

Yeah.... back in November I commented that Putin must be thrilled about the outcome of the election, but I never imagined it going down like this. I'm really, really trying to leave emotion out of this and be reasonable and objective, but thus far I've seen very little to convince me that Trump isn't, at the very least, buddies with Putin.

"Puppet" is a strong word, for sure, but I see no sense in Trump's "hard bargaining/art of the deal" approach with regards to cutting off intelligence and publicly declaring it. I'm no expert on geopolitics, but that strikes me a hell of a lot more like sabotaging Ukraine and putting them in a position to capitulate, rather than forcing them to a legitimate, good-faith bargaining table.

[Jarhead0331]

Guys

Do ANY Americans on here feel comfortable with the situation between the US Administration and Russia?

Personally speaking, no, I am not comfortable with it, but I believe that Trump views China as the greatest threat to the United States and to combat China will attempt to drive Russia out of its sphere. I agree that China is a greater threat to the west than Russia and I do not view Russia as a threat to Europe. Even if Russia had territorial aspirations beyond Ukraine, its proven that it is incapable of making any significant territorial gains even in the immediate vicinity of its own borders. How the hell is it conceivably a threat to any other country, particularly members of NATO. I personally believe all the fear mongering over Russian aggression and the consequences of so-called "appeasement" are overstated.

I recognize that reasonable minds may and do differ and that conceivably, I could also be wrong. That has happened once or twice. 

[al_infierno]

Even if Russia had territorial aspirations beyond Ukraine, its proven that it is incapable of making any significant territorial gains even in the immediate vicinity of its own borders.

I think the issue is less about their capacity for making meaningful gains, and more their capacity for inflicting violence and suffering on their neighbors, which they've proven to have in spades. Though I agree their potential targets have dwindled now that Finland joined NATO, if I recall correctly.

Mostly, I just wish we would/could give Ukraine NATO membership so they'd be protected by Article 5 from any future aggression. Ending the war now is nice, but as people have been saying, it's not very meaningful if it just means Russia gets a breather for a few years and tries again.

[JasonPratt]

Guys

Do ANY Americans on here feel comfortable with the situation between the US Administration and Russia?

I'm not comfortable with how Trump has gone about the situation with Ukraine, though I understand a lot of it. I'm agnostic about "the situation between the US Administration and Russia" because at the moment there is no situation, it's all about Ukraine. I don't care what Putin's agitprop says, they're going to troll for chaos anyway.

Between the two of them, Trump has not yet threatened to bomb the shit out of Zelensky if he takes a step toward Russia, and Trump has not yet given javelins (or other weapons) to Russia to shoot Ukrainian tanks if they invade Russia. Trump was probably counting on making a deal with Z first as leverage on P -- no doubt because T has obviously got more leverage over Z than over P at the moment, in both the short term and long term (and medium term).

But again at the moment my comfort and uncomfort is all about Ukraine. I'll be comfortable and/or uncomfortable about Russia when actual substance starts there.

[nelmsm]

Guys

Do ANY Americans on here feel comfortable with the situation between the US Administration and Russia?

Absolutely not.  This has me thinking about 1938 Czechoslovakia and what happened from there.  The Administration is leaving Ukraine to deal from a position of relative weakness with US Aid cutoff and will be left without much choice to but to accept the lines where they are now.  Unless Putin thinks he has all the cards and won't settle for what Trump thinks is a good deal.  Then I think Trump flips the situation and gives the Ukrainians what they want to show Putin he needs to deal.  It's all a dangerous game.

[JasonPratt]

Well, keep in mind when Chris Murphy complains about T&V making a "planned ambush" on Z ("as Putin's lapdog"), Z had met with CM and other Dem operatives shortly before going to the White House, specifically to get pointers from them and to reiterate that he (Zelensky) would not agree to Trump's terms. Which CM then tweeted about before the WH meeting.

I still agree that Z had legitimate concerns, but CM testifies (somewhat accidentally) that Z went there treating Trump's offer to give Ukraine "all the cards" as equivalent to "giving Putin everything he wants", i.e. genociding the Ukrainian people and taking over their land to loot it for the resources necessary to keep Russia (and Putin) going another ten years or so.

Maybe Zelensky really believed that somehow, but those concepts are absolutely antithetical to each other -- they aren't real, they're self-contradictory.

That doesn't absolve T&V from losing their patience, especially live on camera, but at best Z was played as a tool by Dem party representatives to (also?) sabotage the meeting live on camera -- to score very desperate political points against T.

I hate to bring political infighting into it, but there's US political infighting contributing to the geopolitical strategy situation here.

So to avoid escalating into a RPF situation I recommend waiting to see what deals do or do not get worked out on the US side and then go over the strategic implications for things on the ground. And meanwhile maybe go over the practical strategic implications for the EU + GB deal(s) and how that will affect the fighting?

[planetbrain]

I too suppose we should wait and see what the terms of the ceasefire will be. It is good to at least be talking of the possibility of one.
I am troubled that Russia will bare no consequences for their needless destruction, kidnapping, rape, murder and torture. And the sanctions will be lifted.
I believe I remember Trump saying pre election that Russia better accept a cease fire or they won't know what hit them ( or something like that ).
Maybe it will be "accept reasonable terms or else". But I am dubious.
And Europe has been largely all talk. Maybe they are finally preparing better, maybe it's just louder talk, another joke for Pukin'
Ukraine has had guarantees before, even from America when they gave up their nukes. Then in 2014 ......nothing (but an expensive Russian bridge).

I really hate that Solovyov. He's from the dark side but so is Russia.

[JudgeDredd]

...but I believe that Trump views China as the greatest threat to the United States...

Seems like he's working on that being a reality

[Pete Dero]

I really hate that Solovyov. He's from the dark side but so is Russia.

But he is interesting if you want to know the Russian view on things.
You see him talking but in reality you are listening to Putin.

[Pete Dero]

https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-allies-secret-talks-volodymyr-zelenskyy-opposition-ukraine-elections-yulia-tymoshenko-petro-poroshenko/

Four senior members of Donald Trump's entourage have held secret discussions with some of Kyiv's top political opponents to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, just as Washington aligns with Moscow in seeking to lever the Ukrainian president out of his job.

The senior Trump allies held talks with Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, a remorselessly ambitious former prime minister, and senior members of the party of Petro Poroshenko, Zelenskyy's immediate predecessor as president, according to three Ukrainian parliamentarians and a U.S. Republican foreign policy expert.

The discussions centered on whether Ukraine could hold quick presidential elections. These are being delayed in line with the country's constitution because Ukraine remains under martial law. Critics of holding elections say they could be chaotic and play into Russia's hands, with so many potential voters serving on the front lines or living abroad as refugees.

The official line from the U.S. administration is that Trump is not interfering in Ukraine's domestic politics. This week, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick denied his boss was "weighing into Ukrainian politics," adding all that Trump wants is a partner for peace.

But the behavior of Trump and his officials suggests quite the opposite. Trump has accused Zelenskyy of being a "dictator without elections," and hinted he would not be "around very long" if he didn't do a deal with Russia. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has falsely accused Kyiv of canceling the election.

But while the Trump camp may hope an election will sink Zelenskyy, he is still massively more popular than Tymoshenko and Poroshenko.

[Crossroads]

Busy day at this side of the pond today.

Just finishing their meeting, some 30 random countries (who have not fought for 30 or 40 years) announced made seemingly remarkable decisions on rearmament.

The EU came up with various instruments worth 800 billion, with 150 billion to be made available directly by EU itself, and 650 billion via other loan instruments available to member countries. If I read that correctly, that was in addition to Germany's 500 billion investment plans for their own industries and defense forces. That is some serious amount of money being discussed there.

The UK and Turkey were there too, with apparently Turkey willing to provide peacekeepers in Ukraine once the time comes. Add annother random country (who has not fought for 30 to 40 years) to this peace process.

France apparently stepping up for intel provision for Ukraine now, with some pointy remarks towards the UK and the Five Eyes partnership they claim is being crippled by the US. France, who have a history of preferring to work outside NATO structures, is clearly feeling momentum is with them.

Meanwhile, Putin made a speech towards widows of fallen Russian soldiers. He promised full and total victory in Ukraine. They thanked Putin for everything he has accomplished for the people...

With apologies, I just could not turn the other cheek towards that random country comment. I truly appreciate everyone's input here, it is so helpful to hear different views to same issues. .

[Pete Dero]

Busy day at this side of the pond today.

Can I ask the country you live in ?


IF this deal works out, the EU will be massively increasing our weapon productions and far less will be bought in the US.
Over here in Brussels the feeling is that counting on the US to stick to NATO's article 5 is too big of a risk right now.

Sad times we live in.


European arms manufacturer shares :

[JasonPratt]

In some grey-dark humor, why haven't we Grogs stepped up to do more accurate memes of "how every game of X ends" for the internet? IF WE DON'T WHO WILL?!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhyEHsMlGn8&t=1464s

That link should take you to the meme at the end. Or manually go here,

and jump to the last click at 24:24.

(Actually the whole episode is some pretty grey-dark dumpster-fire humor, but more socio-political comedy commentary than I'd recommend for this thread. I was easily entertained.)

[planetbrain]

Jason,
Sorry, but not entertaining or humorous, just irritating.