Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JudgeDredd]

[MikeGER]

If I read that correctly, that was in addition to Germany's 500 billion investment plans for their own industries and defense forces. That is some serious amount of money being discussed there.

the 500 billion is for infrastructure, old bridgdes/roads/railways schoolbuildings, etc  only, spread over 10 years
This was the 'price tag' the SPD party put on their "Yes" to the defense spending plans.
 
The defense spending annoucement by most likely future Bundeskanzler Merz is "Whatever it takes"!
(this is preconcerted and backed by the SPD party of the upcomming Government coalition)     

every spending above 1% GNP will not count against some juristical national-dept-limitation anymore. 
( typical was 1.5 % , a border state like Poland has 3.8% and growing , a nation at war like Israel has 5.1%)
personaly i expect something like at least 3.5 % in the future ... well but there's no limit   
 
at the moment this is a plan in progress, will take two weeks for the Parlament-prozess to implement it, meetings, votes, law-changes and all

[JudgeDredd]

I haven't watched this yet...at my daughters graduation...but the title looked appropriate

[Crossroads]

What a great video find, Sir! So many good memories 

[JudgeDredd]

Deleted...double post

[JasonPratt]

I don't disagree with General Cavoli, technically, but

1.) Putin was going to do that anyway, and got distracted from it by..

2.) ...having his underwhelming and underprepared forces mulched which means...

3.) ...he'll have to put 5th-line junk on the NATO borders for the foreseeable future...

4.) ...which can only be replenished by various industrial-military manpower, from a pool now substantially lessened...

5.) ...and which cannot at the same time be working to improve Russia's actual infrastructure and production necessary to simply survive as a nation...

6.) ...none of which solves his demographic collapse which has sharply worsened over the past few years for cough reasons...

7.) ...and as the General notes, this will all be under the control of the same people who instigated the Ukrainian takeover, or people like them (if a coup/transition happens)...

8.) ...which means we can expect similar levels of competency in the management of the aforesaid.

Russia still needs to conquer, pacify (by genocide and some limited brainwashing), and loot Ukraine, to even look like it's surviving as a coherent nation for the next ten years. I still don't see that happening, and I don't yet see any offer by T and/or GB + EU equivalent to such gains (for want of a better word), much less superior to such a result -- and Putin needs something better than absorbing "the Ukraine" for Russia to actually survive and recover as a nation. No doubt, that means any further Russian activity at the borders will be edgy, not least because the Russian clock is running out and no one in charge there wants to stop being supervillainous and play nice in the European sandbox.

But the main danger will be finding the bar for actually under-estimating Russian capabilities while their nation dies. And presumably finding how many nukes can they successfully launch out of spite as they go out. (Or successfully sell off in workable form to rogue nation/actors?) 

[JudgeDredd]

I'm going to end on this

I can't contribute here without being banned because I can't see how we can leave politics out of this debate.

Directly what we are dealing with is Trump's dilusions and lies. And he's fucking Ukraine over - most likely because his first impeachment had something to do with Ukraine and Hunter Biden. Who know's and who the fuck cares. He's a thin skinned, egotistical megalomaniac hell bent on "fuck Ukraine"

I am really sickend by the isolationist attitude of the current US administration.

I don't want the thread to be closed - it's done well over the last 3 years and that's why I won't participate further.

But I simply cannot tiptoe around the Trump administration's actions. I tried and I did for a while I think, fairly successfully, but they are getting too intertwined now without being able to be super critical - and by that I mean, he's a fucking deranged megalomaniac surrounded by sicophants and imbeciles.

Given the current state of the war, the US Government and the situation on the ground and the US within the global community, I wonder why the actual fuck any of you actually gave an actual, single, solitairy fuck at the beginning.

I do think some of you gave a shit at the begining but I think some of you started drinking Trump's KoolAid or lost sight of what the actual fuck you gave a shit about at the beginning.

Maybe it was the promise of lower taxes or lower debt or blah blah fucking blah. He doesn't give a fuck about anything but himself.

There are Ukrainian people dying in Ukrainian cities. There are Ukrianian soldiers dying on the battlefield. But fuck me if you didn't get a "Thank you" from Ukraine in that Oval Office meeting (even though have - hunreds of times) and that fucker didn't wear a suit.

Look at what your administration is doing right now. Seriously think about the tone they are taking. Seriously think about who they are punishing. Seriously think about who they are appeasing. Seriously think about their tone and to which side - the aggressor or the victim - they are taking. Think about what peace they are trying to achieve when they stop arms to Ukraine and stop crucial intelligence to the Ukrainian government that will absolutely and directly create civilian deaths.

Just have a look through the first few pages and then wonder why the actual fuck you were here posting about this conflict back then...and align that with your views right now. What's changed your mind? Don't give me any bullshit about lives. Fuck that. It;s fuck all to do with how many people (Ukrainian or Russian) lose their lives.

This is about money. It;s about US debt. It's about US tax payers. It's about Russian sanctions and money that could be freed up by releasing those sanctions.

Because really, this thread has turned out of a Ukraine Russia war issue and into the US Administration issue.

I don't give an actual fuck if you're a republican or a democrat - but your views on Russia, and whether they are a threat or not do concern me - especially as you are the main member of NATO.

As I see it - there's nothing else to post. The US has made it's stance clear. Fuck Ukraine. Appease Russia. Don't listen to it's NATO Allies. Apparently America First and Make America Great Again means fuck the world.

I'm totally fine with that. I just wish Europe (and it seems like it might be trying to get it's shit together) understands the new US policy.

As the US and the UK/EU/Ukraine alliance is at present, I genuinely think the only real viable option is that Europe needs to put on their big pants and deal with the security issue on their border. And that means telling America to butt the fuck out. If the US has nothing constructive to add to the peace negotiations, they need to shut up and let Europe deal with it.

America does'nt see it as their issue - there's an ocean between Europe and the US - and so it's not their problem. Cool. Europe just needs to see that.

For Trump to sit there and say Russia wants peace and that's why they launched the biggest single drone/ariel attack since the start of the war is just mindboglingly stupid.

I genuinely think Europe needs to tell the US "If you're not going to back Ukraine then butt the fuck out".

Die Hard - "If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem. Quit being part of the fucking part of the problem and put the EU on"

At the end of the day, if US politicians can't even say that Russia is the aggressor, then WTAF is the point of the US being involved.

Trump has clearly got an agenda against Ukraine - whether it's Hunter Biden affiliated or not. He's totally, publicly sided with Russia and taken a huge, US dump on Ukraine.

Justify that how you want to justify whatever the fuck it is you want to justify.

But remember this - and fuck your money and your "tax dollar" - there are peoples lives being destroyed here. Families. Brothers. Sisters. Husbands. Wives. Sons. Daughters.

 There is one aggressor - Russia. There is one victim (Ukraine).
 
 You've made your allegiance clear.
 
 Thank you for the past but - yeah - this is where we are.

[Jarhead0331]

JD...I understand your feelings. I'm not going to lock the thread and I'm not going to ban you.

Do your best to keep it civil. When you can, thank you. When you can't, I understand.

Stay well, friend.

[planetbrain]

I totally agree with JudgeDread.
Unless there is some underlying something going on that I totally mis-understand (easily possible), then everything is gob-smackingly JUST WRONG with the Trump administration approach to the Ukraine war & just about everything affecting long standing alliances.
As an Aussie, I have (had?) a real appreciation for America, knowing about WW2, Coral Sea & Guadalcanal & etc.
But, at the moment.......I just don't know. It seems to go more pear shape by the day.
I reiterate, maybe something is happening that will make it all alright.
I do not think so!


ps: Is Trump really a Russian agent? He sure acts like one.

[Anguille]

I do share JDs views and also believes the current administration is doing more harm than good to the US themselves. I never believed it would be that bad.

European countries are realising it and are taking action but it's not going fast enough.

The ones who are suffering are the Ukrainians and this makes me extremely sad.

[JudgeDredd]

JD...I understand your feelings. I'm not going to lock the thread and I'm not going to ban you.

Do your best to keep it civil. When you can, thank you. When you can't, I understand.

Stay well, friend.

I appreciate that JH.

I should know better than to "drunk post", but I'm glad I did because everything I wanted to say for the last couple of weeks has been tucked away.

It's off my chest now and I do hope the thread stays open and doesn't get derailed by my post so other people can have a civil conversation about this. But my civility on the issue has ran dry I'm afraid.

I do think it's probably best I don't post again about this though because everything that is screaming out of me is tied to the current political situation in the US I'm afraid.

I'll still stick around and post elsewhere.

Stay safe people and SLAVA UKRAINI. I how Europe wakes the fuck up and quickly.

I love all my sane friends across the pond.

[Crossroads]

Bless you, Judge. It is quite difficult to follow the events without getting angry quite often.

Just yesterday, the WSJ front page listed Trump's approval, for lack of a better word, of Russia's missile strikes on Ukraine as something anyone would do, while the next topic reported on halting also commercial intel delivery to Ukraine. Nauseating stuff to read.

What really got my attention though – I am from Helsinki, Finland, MikeGER – was Germany's Councellor-to-be Mertz declaring "the US can no longer be trusted".

He is an old-school politician who speaks with consideration, and like most German politicians, he is a very strong supporter of transatlantic relations.
"My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the United States."  That is quite a statement. Read it again and let is sink for a while.

But here we are. We had VP Vance who delivered a strong alt-right campaign speech at the Munich Security Conference of all places just under the German elections. We have Trump with his opinion that "the EU was formed in order to screw the United States."  I am reading the US will withdraw from any military exercises in Europe, next. It is very difficult to see the real deal from all the hysterics out there. Trade war with EU tomorrow? Heads, it is on, Tails, maybe not.

It is taking its toll. I am seeing discussions in Denmark, which is selecting its next air defense platform, to opt for Norwegian NASAMS, for "it can also deploy German IRIS-T missiles, in case the US cuts out the AMRAAM support to Europe." Seriously.

In Finland, the largest newspaper had a long article on new F35s asking, "Does the US have a kill switch to ground them at will?" Experts answered, in case you wonder: "We don't think so, but we don't know."

Trust is easy to lose, slow to build back. In action, in words, repeating Russian falsehoods and propaganda items, the US is now siding more with Russia than ever before. Some of it may be just noise, or "Trump being Trump", but it is all very one sided, with same items being repeated time after time.

Russia is not the Soviet Union, but Soviet Union was not expected to attack on the next Monday either, while there was no confusion as to whether it was a hostile to our world view of rules and democracy.

Putin has been very open in portraying his strategic view. Putin Played the Long Game and Is Winning, reads a news headline. When you do reward aggression, it guarantees another round of aggression. Why would he stop. Next victim, please.

Pax Americana seems to be all but gone now, at breakneck speed.

It is quite a game they are playing. Towards what end?

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1898601328722489362

[Jarhead0331]

Interesting discussion...

[planetbrain]

Peter Zeihan's take (part of a what will be a series) on what Trump is achieving:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGFKwshHjWQ

[JasonPratt]

Okay, meanwhile, because I have difficulty remembering proportions  here's a handy illustration of the difference in land invaded by Russia and invaded by Ukraine, held so far in this war:



I actually wish the Ukrainian side was larger for a better position in swapping out, but it is what it is.