Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Skoop]

I don't like the way Trump is handling the Europe Ukraine situation at all.  It's too clumsy bull in a china shop type of way.  There's a reason Ike was the Supreme Leader in WWII and not Patton, delicate thoughtful diplomacy was need then and is needed now.

In reality, Trump is not entirely wrong. The US Europe relation / dependency should have been restructured after the fall of the Soviet Union, but it never was. We kept buying everyone's friendship even after the cold war when we didn't need to, maybe it was a lobbyist thing.  But the timing of right now at the height of the Ukraine crisis, that makes this super awkward.  This isn't the time for righting the wrong of Europe freeloading off the US for the last 70 years.  That could have been done slowly and quietly and still carry the presence of a "Big Stick" for the alliance.         

 

[solops]

I don't like the way Trump is handling the Europe Ukraine situation at all.  It's too clumsy bull in a china shop type of way.  There's a reason Ike was the Supreme Leader in WWII and not Patton, delicate thoughtful diplomacy was need then and is needed now.

In reality, Trump is not entirely wrong. The US Europe relation / dependency should have been restructured after the fall of the Soviet Union, but it never was. We kept buying everyone's friendship even after the cold war when we didn't need to, maybe it was a lobbyist thing.  But the timing of right now at the height of the Ukraine crisis, that makes this super awkward.  This isn't the time for righting the wrong of Europe freeloading off the US for the last 70 years.  That could have been done slowly and quietly and still carry the presence of a "Big Stick" for the alliance.         

 

+1
Well put.

[JasonPratt]

+10.

[JudgeDredd]

No drunk posts. Apologies for my tirade early - though I stand by what I said. But I wish I hadn't made it so personal. You all are much more diplomatic than I am.

Found this today.

I'm more interested in what this guy says about Russia than I am about the cousin story. Specifically about releasing sanctions and Russia building a war machine - that's definitely a concern I have - along with the info they now have on how better to fight a "modern" war - after all, we're not the only ones learning here.

If Russia can build 1200 tanks a year now with the world wide stranglehold on their finances, how many do you think they can build when their assets are released and trade is re-opened?

[JasonPratt]

They had better be plowing those released funds into national prosperity, but y'know, kleptos gonna klep, even when they'd klep more in the long run if they klep'd less in the short run.

Then again, for any of them, the short run could be too short. Or a long drop and a short stop.  But that's very much related to why Putin decided to throw his armor (etc) now while he thought he had a chance to keep the gravy train going.

I could foresee an attempt being made to grant them economic leniency so long as they keep their military on a purely defensive level, but (a) how well has that worked with Iran (for example); (b) would that be as 'easy' to check as with Iran (for example); and (c) governments that aren't actually dictators come and go, so Putin and/or especially any successor would just have to run out the clock while getting leverage to generate opportunities. (cf Iran, for example)

Anyway, yeah, bad faith actors have to demonstrate they can be trusted not to act in bad faith, and Putler isn't famous for succeeding in such demonstration. 

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, I was hearing buzz yesterday about Pres Z verbally and publicly agreeing to get going on Pres T's deal, including looking to end the war sooner than a very very long later from now (so to speak), freezing the borders for negotiation, etc.

I haven't been in a position to look for any indications of forward progress on that this morning, but last night the ball would seem to be in Putin's court? Are we finally going to see some dang negotiation with Putler instead of {cough} massaging him for foreplay to get him in the mood?!

(...and now you have that mental image to escape from. Sorry.  )

[Jarhead0331]

Supposedly a deal has been reached during the talks held in Saudi Arabia that will be presented to Russia. As a result of the deal intelligence sharing and security aid has been restored to Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c51ypekv9xwt?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us

[JudgeDredd]

At what cost though 

[Pete Dero]

As a result of the deal intelligence sharing and security aid has been restored to Ukraine.

Never should have been stopped but good news it is restored.

And now it is money time : what will Russia do with the proposal ?
I'm hoping for the best but I fear this will turn out bad for Ukraine.

[JudgeDredd]

He makes some good arguments about why the administration is behaving the way it is - if only I could believe they were that competent. Some of the points made have actually been mentioned by at least JH here - whom I would trust far more than Vance or Rubio.

However - his end point is striking - "If we keep signaling that we're willing to trade our Allies for short term strategic convenience, then we need to ask ourselves one final question - who's going to stand with us when we're the ones in need?"

I think the problem with that question is the current US Administration sees itself as not needing anyone else, and tbf that kind of fits with Trumps "isolationist" view - or as he likes to call it, his America First policy.

So I guess the question posed above, whilst striking is kind of moot, given the views in the Whitehouse and the America First ethos.

[Pete Dero]

So far no positive response from Russia (besides 150 drone attacks last night).

They didn't even say thank you today  .

[Jarhead0331]

I think we'll learn more about Trump's motives if Russia refuses a cease fire than if it accepts one. Will Trump exert the same amount of raw pressure and consequence against Russia that was exerted against Ukraine in order to secure peace?

If so, there is consistency in his approach to achieving a cessation of the violence and I can accept that.

[Con]

I'd feel better if the admin had people who had played Civ, Hearts of Iron, crusader kings etc
Any wargamer knows you need to crush the small rival and take them completely out of the game before you pivot and engage with the more serious threat to your kingdom
Just watch as this Russian ceasefire results in the classic stab you in the back when you engage China

[Jarhead0331]

Rubio is doing what good statesmen do, but this statement doesn't fill me with great confidence that the Trump administration has a plan in the event Russia says, "no".

[JasonPratt]

I suspect T's plan if Russia continues to refuse the ceasefire is to level up Ukraine to the point where Russia nopes out, thus taking the next-shortest path to the end goal of 'both nations stop dying and start thriving'. We have mineral rights to protect now (or soon, I hope), yo! Plus the EU+GB, whatever they're planning to do, which supposedly includes boots on the ground and in the air. (...pilots wear boots I think?)

Relatedly, I suspect the next big T vs Z dogfight will come from US requirements on how to use or not use our stuff vs Russia. Defending territory, check. Striking backfield logistics, check but with more limits (I'd expect, e.g. no more droning Moscow). Invading Russia, big no. Giving back the Kursk oblast, on that plan, would be necessary, otherwise the US would be an accessory to invading Russia -- another huge step (if not a trigger) for WW3.