Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JudgeDredd]

Regarding the video above, all good but the lecturing part was quite strange. I for one do not "hate" Russians, what a strange argument to make. We used to have an active living border not long ago, I've got a ton of Russian friends and acquintances, many living here now as for instace may ICT professionals preferred to move out for a bit. The fact that I distrust Kremlin is another thing completely.   

Exactly. I do not hate Russia. On the contrary, regardless of Capitalism vs Communism - if what they have works for them - great.

I absolutely abhor their administration's  attitude world politics and their interference in countries politics "just because"...just the same as I would condemn it by the West (and did on the "war on terror" and the invasion of Afghanistan! I was no suporter of The Taliban - but I still didn't think it was "our right" to do what we did in the name of "democracy" - and especially HOW we did it.)

[JudgeDredd]

unconditional material support that will prolong the war until Ukraine can "win"

You put "win" in quotes - presumably because you think they can't (especially without support - and I agree there) or it's at least unlikely. And I agree...but - that's where we disagree - I'd argue, given the right support - unconditionally - they absolutely could kick Russia out of their country.

Can you forget about the US dollar for just one second (and the falsehood that you'll have any significant additional coinage in your wallet) and just think about this -

More is at risk than Ukrainian sovereignty

Really? REALLY?

When Article 5 was invoked (the only time in history) by the US in 2001, I wonder how you'd have felt if the UK (and other countries) had said "Dude - there's more involved here than just those two buildings."

(I'd just like to say I do not mean to belittle those attacks - they were horrendous)

If the line is not Ukraine, then it will be somewhere else. It doesn't stop at Ukraine. I'm not talking about 5 years. 10 years. Maybe not even 20 years. But you've shown your hand.

You show weakness, it will be snapped off and chewed...and up the arm it goes. Before long...it's not just your arm, it's invading your body. And by then it's too late - you've shown your hand.

[JudgeDredd]

If Ukraine doesn't want to take into consideration the terms or interests of other nations, then it can fight the war on its own without the material and financial support of those nations. More is at risk than Ukrainian sovereignty, much more, and a such, Ukraine is not in a position to have its cake and eat it too. America is not going to write a blank check, nor should it be expected to and I don't think it is reasonable to criticize her for not doing so.

Can I ask, how much of Ukraine - as a US citizen - are you willing to give to Russia to stop your money going to support that country's right to exist as a sovereign state?

Perhaps you take the view of JD Vance where he stated he really didn't give a shit about what happened to Ukraine...which is fine - but I wish those same people wouldn't try and pretend "they wanted the dying to stop".

Perhaps - more intimately - how much of the US would you cede to a rogue state in order to prevent a continued war?

Is it the fact that it "doesn't affect you" (US - not you specifically) that makes it distasteful that Ukraine wants a ceasefire on IT'S terms?

[JudgeDredd]

I don't know if I've made it clear in a previous post (jk - I have) - any - ANY - peace deal should be on Ukrainian terms- including the return of all occupied territory belonging to Ukraine.

Take my tax £ - tax me to the fucking hilt - to kick that fucker out of Ukraine. I don't just support Ukraine in money - I support them in body. If I was young and fit, I would advocate being there fighting against this tyranny.

I wasn't in favour of 2003 (it was a lie). I wasn't in favour of Afghanistan (though the idea was better than the reason). I absolutely was in favour of 1991 (a sovereign nation was invaded by another nation). I was in favour of 1982. I am now - for exactly the same reason!

If it's important to Ukrainians, it should be important to people who believe in democracy.

[JudgeDredd]

Sorry for my messages - it seems my space bar isn't working properly (i've been editing to fix where noticed) which is pretty fucking infuiriating...although not as infuriating as having your country invaded and other countries not giving a shit (or at least not giving too much of a shit - depending on cost)

[Crossroads]

This is a strange world for an Old School Relic such as myself. There is polarization, but there's always been polarization. I guess what is new are not only the algorithms that thrive on polarization, but how everything is dumbed down to a couple of sentences the twitters and tiktoks of the world allow for. Then, those who do the most provocative bits and pieces are rewarded.

It is sad to see top politicians (of all sides) embracing this, too.

I wish the world could be more like our thread right here? We may not always agree with each other, but we take the time to explain our views to each other, and as a result we know where each of us comes from. I truly appreciate everyone here and how are able to talk about all of this while remaining civil towards each other despite how the world seems to work nowadays.

With that, and how this thread is often about current geopolitics, and to prove that my Kumbayah moment is truly behind me and gone    I offer the latest on the War of the Worlds between the US and Europe: eggs. "Don't send me your huddled masses yearning to be free. Just send eggs." Banter good, right?



Meme credit to awesome Minna Alander. If you're interested in European security politics, she is worth a follow

[Pete Dero]

Their goals are obvious :

Moscow sees itself fighting a long war against what it deems a Western hegemony. It is in this context that Russian President Putin terms "Western elite" the enemy. What exactly he means by Western elite is kept ambiguous, perhaps for political expediency, but his ultimate nemeses are clearly the US and European powers who lead the global political and economic order.

https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2024/04/26/russias-hybrid-war-against-the-west/index.html

Hybrid warfare seems to have become an integral part of Moscow's policy vis-à-vis the West. With the rising relevance and efficacy of non-state actors as well as the advent of new technologies like autonomous weapons, hybrid warfare below the traditional threshold of war has become possible

In my opinion a peace deal in Ukraine giving in today to most Russian demands will lead to a more costly larger war later.
The current hybrid war only shows peace isn't their ultimate objective.  They will accept a deal today if this aids their long term goals (like demobilization of Ukraine, no NATO troops in countries bordering Russia, ...).


Europe is losing its trust in the US and that is depressing news.
Whether this exists or not is actually irrelevant, the fact that an F35 'kill switch' is being talked about is telling in itself.
More realistic perhaps are the questions being asked whether in a few years we will still have access to parts to maintain the F35s.

https://theaviationist.com/2025/03/10/f-35-kill-switch-myth/
https://www.euronews.com/next/2025/03/13/can-the-us-turn-off-european-weapons-experts-weigh-in-on-kill-switch-fears

https://theaviationist.com/2025/03/15/canada-reconsidering-f-35/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/f35-blair-trump-1.7484477

Canada is actively looking at potential alternatives to the U.S.-built F-35 stealth fighter and will hold conversations with rival aircraft makers.
The news comes just one day after Portugal announced it was abandoning its plans to purchase the F-35.

Finally Europe agrees we need to spend more to defend ourselves and now they wonder if their biggest partner still can be trusted.

[Crossroads]

^Turkey´s interested to purchase Typhoons from the UK, which of course can be a timing thing, as they were cut off from F-35 programme, and even if allowed re-entrance, there´s a long queue to actually receiving first of the new airframes.

On AAD, Sweden chose Patriot, Finland went for David's Sling, these decisions date back a year or three. I mentioned the Denmark procurement process, seems the French SAMP/T system might be a frontrunner now instead of Patriot. For midranges system, the Norwegian NASAMS continue to be the favourite.

Edit another post by the same Danish author, reminding that since many European NATO members are already some one third short of their capabilities targets, and the NATO plan for 2025 asks for an increase of another one third, there is quite a gap to bridge (together: not 60% but 46%,  acshtually  ).

This in mind, it is good news the European manufacturers are stepping up, and stepping up they are, as there will finally be orders, not just talk of a need for a ramp-up. Even the US manufacturing capacity is currently maxed out.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/03/14/nato-to-ask-allies-for-30-capability-boost-top-commander-says/

[Jarhead0331]

Look, enabling Ukraine's right to self-defense is a worthy endeavor, with both moral and strategic imperatives. However, where we seem to disagree is that the provision of that support is not incompatible with open-eyed assessments of the immediate and long-term risks, and neither the United States nor Ukraine is well served by failing to consider them entirely.

While any miscommunication is likely my responsibility, you do seem to think this is just about the dollars to me. It isn't...hardly, in fact. While it is true that the Trump administration has taken a very aggressive approach to cutting back federal spending and waste, which is generally an effort I support, and that this approach will most certainly be used to justify all kinds of cuts to foreign military (and other) aid, the greater issues in my view are risks caused by escalation, diversion and misuse.

Combine these serious risks with the relatively limited advantage as far as the US (and much of the globe) is concerned, and I think a cautious, thoughtful and somewhat conditional approach to aid is justified. Arms transfers create responsibilities for Washington and obligations it owes to the people of Ukraine, the global community, and U.S. taxpayers to ensure those transfers do not turn into new immediate risks or long-term liabilities. I refuse to accept a "fuck Russia, fuck Putin, give Ukraine whatever they need no matter the cost" approach to US policy. I don't even think that should be the European approach. 

Your arguments are passionate and extremely emotional. This comes across very clearly in your posts. To be clear, I'm not criticizing you for this. I understand it and accept it and if I was European, I may very likely feel the same way. While it is true that this war started when an authoritarian nation invaded a "mostly" democratic neighbor, I do not like viewing this war as democracy and freedom versus authoritarianism. I don't think this is entirely accurate or constructive and I believe this argument is intended to appeal to emotion for the purpose of encouraging people to just toss caution and good judgment into the wind.

I've certainly been frustrated and troubled by Trump's diplomatic handling of negotiations, but to be clear, I am in support of any effort to reach a cease fire and end the war and to leverage aid in some respect to achieve these goals, leverage that should run both ways. Saying one will agree to a cease fire or peace but only on Ukrainian terms is not realistic and this way of thinking will not achieve an end to the war at all. To the contrary, it will only lead to further hostilities until one side achieves a complete victory or is utterly destroyed in defeat.   

[Crossroads]

Perun with a rather thought provoking analysis, concluding that "something is being lost here", and that "it is not over, but something has changed."

What happens when trust is lost, leverage is the thing, and de-risking becomes - perhaps - a necessity? I particularly liked how he left many conclusions for the audience.

[JudgeDredd]

I am emotional JH. Maybe too much.

Thankfully, I'm not in government Can you imagine 

[JudgeDredd]

I'm not sure France should be calling for German re-armament   

[Crossroads]

I'm not sure France should be calling for German re-armament   

France and Poland, even...

[Tripoli]

https://americasbestpics.com/picture/as-a-german-just-wanna-get-some-things-straight-the-eS6iSxBN9?s=cl

[JasonPratt]

Would have worked fine last time if the marching army hadn't insisted on being Nazis. I can cite many Hearts of Iron videos as my scientific evidence.