Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Crossroads]

What is extraordinary about this process is how everything is playing out in public. The first bits and pieces from yesterday suggest that, in practice, no progress seems to been made as neither side was willing to concede anything. I suppose that's also the silver lining, Ukraine has agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, and for now, the ball seems to remain in Russia's court.

At the very least, we now know that Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are causing enough pain for the first real concession, or, "concession*,  from the Russian side. They are quickly regrouping after the curveball Trump threw by insisting that a ceasefire must come first. Deny all conditions the opposition sets, make your own audacious demands, move the goalposts.

WSJ article gift link: Trump's Call With Putin Signals Long Road Ahead to Russia-Ukraine Deal

Snippet:

WASHINGTON—President Trump insisted Russia would be the easier partner on the path to peace with Ukraine. But his Tuesday phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin only underscored the Kremlin is so far the bigger obstacle.

The question now facing Trump is whether to apply real pressure on Putin to make concessions or try to wring more compromises out of Kyiv than he already has.

In his call with Trump, Putin agreed to halt attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure for a month and to further negotiations toward a permanent cease-fire. But it was far less than Trump aimed for, and certainly less than the monthlong unconditional pause Kyiv accepted earlier.

After the call, Moscow said in a statement that Ukraine would have to agree to curtail its military mobilization and stop rearming, lengthening the list of Russian conditions for a deal. Trump said Putin on the call didn't ask for a military assistance pause during a Tuesday night interview on Fox News's "The Ingraham Angle."

"We didn't talk about aid at all," he said.

Now Trump has the dilemma of either trusting Putin to make peace, or pressuring the Kremlin to make a deal, which could derail his larger goal of rebuilding Washington's ties with Moscow. Either way, Trump has lashed the fate of his early presidency to Putin, testing whether the American's desire for a deal could overcome the Russian leader's goal of subjugating Ukraine.

I recall reading yesterday, that Putin even agreed to stop hits on energy infrastructure (but not infrastructure in general, per US notes) immediately. "I have made the call to my commanders."

Edit here for instance:

"During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to the conflict to mutually refrain from striking energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding command," its readout said.

WSJ article continues:

But overnight, Russia struck the energy grid of Slovyansk in Ukraine's east, calling into question just how closely Putin intends to stick to the cease-fire he agreed to with Trump.

"You cease, we fire".

The article continues for quite a bit, and concludes:

Trump will have to walk a tightrope to get the Ukraine deal done while keeping the hopes of a broader agreement alive. That could help Putin use the negotiations to ensure a lasting peace never comes.

Effectively, Putin outright refused the U.S. demand for an immediate 30-day ceasefire. So what comes next? How about opening up U.S. oil reserves for export to further lower oil and gas prices? That would have benefits of lowering at least some prices that have gone up with inflation. To be found out.

That said, there is consensus that this was always going to be a long(er) process. If there is a full cease-fire in three to six months time that would be great. Given not one dictated solely by Putin, that is.

[Pete Dero]

At the very least, we now know that Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are causing enough pain for the first real concession, or, "concession*,  from the Russian side.

Posted this a month ago :

The U.S. asked Russia in Riyadh for a moratorium on strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Lavrov said.
The request was rejected, he said, because Russia never targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the first place.

[Pete Dero]

Know where your priorities are :

https://www.reuters.com/sports/trump-supports-putins-call-hockey-matches-between-nations-kremlin-says-2025-03-18/

U.S. President Donald Trump supports Russian President Vladimir Putin's idea of holding ice hockey matches between professional American and Russian players, the Kremlin said after the two leaders spoke on Tuesday.
Russia has been frozen out of international ice hockey competitions after the country's invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

[Jarhead0331]

Its an opinion piece, but surprised to see it on The Hill.

https://thehill.com/opinion/5198022-ukraine-conflict-disinformation/

[JasonPratt]

I wondered if Trump didn't really understand how intractable (at best!) Putin would be; so that's confirmation he didn't understand.   

Anyway. From the Epoch Times and Reuters yesterday. Note the point of targeting terminology, which might explain the strike on the energy grid of Slovyansk.

WASHINGTON—Following a phone call with President Donald Trump on March 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to a limited cease-fire, in which Russia and Ukraine would stop targeting each other's energy infrastructure for 30 days.

Trump and Putin started the conversation at around 10 a.m. ET, with the discussion lasting nearly 90 minutes.

"My phone conversation today with President Putin of Russia was a very good and productive one," Trump said in a Truth Social post after the call.

"We agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructure, with an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible War between Russia and Ukraine."

According to a Kremlin readout of the call, Trump proposed a deal whereby Russian and Ukrainian forces would mutually refrain from attacks on "energy infrastructure facilities."

"Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding order," the Kremlin added.

he agreement comes a week after Kyiv agreed to a different U.S.-backed 30-day cease-fire proposal, which would have covered all aspects of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine rather than just energy facilities.

As he reviewed the proposal for a more comprehensive temporary cease-fire, Putin questioned how the truce would be monitored. He also raised concerns about Ukraine using the reprieve as an opportunity to rearm and mobilize more troops for a resumption of hostilities.

"It was emphasized that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working toward its resolution by political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv," the Kremlin said.

According to a readout by the White House: "The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace.

"These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East."

However, there is a key discrepancy between the Kremlin's characterization of the deal and the White House's. The Kremlin described the deal as one barring attacks on "energy infrastructure facilities," while the White House readout indicates the truce covers "energy and infrastructure," which could be broader.

The Epoch Times reached out to the White House for more clarification on this limited truce, and did not immediately receive a response.

The Kremlin said Putin had also agreed to release 175 Ukrainians held by Russia in exchange for the return of 175 Russians held by the Ukrainian side. In addition, Russia agreed to release 23 severely wounded Ukrainian servicemen to Ukraine "as a goodwill gesture."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country would support the proposal to stop strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. However, he told reporters during an online briefing that he does not trust the Russians and, as a result, needs to understand how the cease-fire will work technically.

He said he hoped to speak to Trump about his talks with Putin.

"We support all steps aimed at the end of the war," he said. "But in order to support them, we need to understand what, exactly, we support. When President Trump has time—he is a busy man—when he has time, he can call me any time, he has my phone number. We are ready to talk through further steps, with pleasure."

Prior to the call, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated that Kyiv is not an "obstacle" to a peace deal with Russia and expressed optimism that both sides could achieve peace under Trump's leadership.

"Our approach: Now is a time for diplomacy, for a strong diplomacy," Sybiha said on March 18 during a geopolitical conference in India.

"We also really believe that with [the] leadership of President Trump, we could achieve long-lasting, just peace."

The call follows a meeting in Moscow last week between Trump's de facto Russia envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin.

According to Witkoff, both the U.S. and Russian sides made "a lot of progress" during that meeting, which lasted more than three hours.

During an interview with CBS's "Face the Nation" on March 16, Witkoff said, the significant gap between Ukraine and Russia that existed prior to Trump's inauguration has been narrowed.

He noted that a cease-fire involves addressing various factors, such as preventing fighting along a 1,200-mile border and in areas like Kursk. He mentioned the need to consider Russia's focus on specific regions, the protection of a nuclear reactor supplying electricity to Ukraine, access to ports, and potential agreements related to the Black Sea.

If I was slightly less lazy busy, I should check on how ISW is gauging the recent talks.

[JasonPratt]

Update: it's also technically possible that Putin and/or one of his commanders snuck the strike in at the last minute (within the first hour of the ceasefire) for an appeal to plausible deniability. Seems like a very Puty thing to do. "Well I gave the command but you know how the command chain works even in a nation as efficient and wonderful as Russia, there is a certain amount of lag time. Besides what I really meant -- I mean what I really said, but I was misquoted by the decadent western lackey media -- was that I would immediately tell my commanders to cease firing on such topics after the top of the next hour, because what moron would expect instant cecessation of fire missions like this was a video game!? And in fact we did so."

[JasonPratt]

Update: Russia being Russia, the attack ended up landing on a hospital, thus allowing Russia to claim that they didn't attack the agreed targets because... Orks is gonna Ork?

No casualties, but 147 sick people had to evacuate.

Okay, to be fair, they did also attack civilian infrastructure. The hospital was... um.... ..... just a bonus?

A little more seriously, Russia says this attack was launched 7 minutes before the ceasefire order came down, and they tried to stop it, seriously, they even shot down 7 of their own guided drones, trust us bros!

At some point we're gonna have US as well as EU boots on the ground in Ukraine (and in the air over Uk), and Putin -- or his rivals -- will have to decide just how badly they want to start WW3 for literally no possible gain to Russia. Russia only survives their own malfeasance (whether in the long or the short run) if they stop being maleficent. Somehow.

[JudgeDredd]

I'm too tired with all this. It's exhausting.

[Crossroads]

The main thing to remember is that Trump pushed hard for an unconditional cease-fire, Zelenskyi agreed, but Putin outright refused and continues to play games.

Everything else is just background noise

[Jarhead0331]

Not directly related to the thread, but this Mark Felton video made me think of UK's unpreparedness for war.

[JudgeDredd]

I knew about the "rented" missiles. In fact, I do believe we can't use them without US approval (something about requiring the keys from the US...) - could be wrong - but I'm sure I heard that years ago...that they are not ours to launch autonomously. *edit* - he says overall control of launch is with the British Prime Minister.

As for the Army - it's devastating - I don't know what you're meant to do with 70k troops. That can't even count for being an efficient home guard.

[Father Ted]

I've been a follower of Mr Felton's output for a while, but he only recently seems to have made it upfront about his political persuasion.  I would caution about his vids being entirely politically neutral.

While I'm here, I'd also like to echo JD's position (slap me if I'm wrong chap) in that the Ukraine is reacting to an unprovoked attack - in a moral sense, why should they have to give stuff up for a peace deal?

[JudgeDredd]

I didn not know that Mark Felton was from Essex, nor that he went to the Philip Morant School in Colchester (round the corner from me) and that he only started YT in 2017!

All very, very new facts to me.

[Pete Dero]

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/22/europe/witkoff-carlson-trump-russia-ukraine-talks-intl/index.html

In a long interview with podcast host Tucker Carlson, Witkoff – who also revealed Russia's President Putin had commissioned a portrait of Donald Trump and sent it to him – said the administration was making progress "that no one thought was possible" with Russia, but that issues of territory still need ironing out.

The four mainland regions, which Witkoff appeared to struggle to name and needed prompting from Carlson, were illegally annexed during Russia's full-scale invasion and Kyiv vehemently opposes giving them up.

The Kremlin has since staged referenda on joining Russia in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which Kyiv and the international community decried as a propaganda exercise, but which Witkoff claimed was evidence of their desire to split from Ukraine.

"They're Russian-speaking," Witkoff said of the four eastern regions. "There have been referendums where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule."

"The Russians are de facto in control of these territories. The question is: Will the world acknowledge that those are Russian territories?" Witkoff asked. "Can (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky survive politically if he acknowledges this? This is the central issue in the conflict."


It looks like US is the first western country that legitimizes those referendums held at gunpoint.
Putin must be running out of Champagne.

[Crossroads]

Ukrainian election results, without guns.

2019:



Zelenskyi won on the premise of negotiating an end to hostilities based on the Minsk Agreements. Only to find out that there is no peace to be negotiated with Putin.

1991 Independence Referendum: