Russia's War Against Ukraine

[Crossroads]

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/22/europe/witkoff-carlson-trump-russia-ukraine-talks-intl/index.html

In a long interview with podcast host Tucker Carlson, Witkoff – who also revealed Russia's President Putin had commissioned a portrait of Donald Trump and sent it to him – said the administration was making progress "that no one thought was possible" with Russia, but that issues of territory still need ironing out.

The four mainland regions, which Witkoff appeared to struggle to name and needed prompting from Carlson, were illegally annexed during Russia's full-scale invasion and Kyiv vehemently opposes giving them up.

The Kremlin has since staged referenda on joining Russia in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which Kyiv and the international community decried as a propaganda exercise, but which Witkoff claimed was evidence of their desire to split from Ukraine.

"They're Russian-speaking," Witkoff said of the four eastern regions. "There have been referendums where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule."

"The Russians are de facto in control of these territories. The question is: Will the world acknowledge that those are Russian territories?" Witkoff asked. "Can (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky survive politically if he acknowledges this? This is the central issue in the conflict."


It looks like US is the first western country that legitimizes those referendums held at gunpoint.
Putin must be running out of Champagne.

ISW was not particularly impressed, either:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-22-2025

Witkoff's statements undermine US President Donald Trump's stated desired end state for the war in Ukraine that achieves an enduring peace and is in the best interests of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe.

Trump has said that the United States will try to return as much territory to Ukraine as possible.[27] Trump also recently stated that the United States is interested in taking control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), which Russian forces currently occupy — implying that Russia would have to cede this territory in Zaporizhia Oblast before the United States can take control of the ZNPP.[28]

Witkoff's March 21 presentation of Russia's territorial demands for the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts — including areas of these four oblasts that Russian forces do not currently occupy — undermines Trump's efforts to achieve a resolution to the war favorable to US interests. Ceding territory in these four oblasts to Russia — either along the current frontlines or along the oblasts' administrative boundaries – would not provide Ukraine with the defensible lines required to reliably defend against renewed Russian aggression in the future, hindering Trump's stated objective of securing a lasting, sustainable peace in Ukraine.[29]

Witkoff also claimed that Ukrainian officials have "conceded" that Ukraine will not be a member of NATO — a preemptive US concession to Russia on one of the Kremlin's main demands as Russia continues to make no concessions in return. Witkoff's statements appear to yield to multiple Kremlin demands before the start of official negotiations for a peace settlement, ceding valuable US and Ukrainian leverage over Russia in future negotiations that the United States will need in order to achieve Trump's desired end to the war.

[JudgeDredd]

...efforts to achieve a resolution to the war favorable to US interests

There's just something about that statement that leaves me cold.

[JasonPratt]

Man that Witkoff interview was cringe-inducing. I don't blame Z for insisting on NATO and/or EU membership (which he'd step down for) and European boots on the ground rather than UN peacekeepers who will absolutely not do anything to even be a speedbump for Putin. I realize T feels like he has to work the shaft with P to get anything done on that side, but damn.

Still, Ukr and US officials started meeting yesterday in Saudi Arabia for more peacetalks, for whatever those may be worth now. From Epoch Times and Reuters reporting:

Officials from the United States and Ukraine began talks in Saudi Arabia on March 23 over plans to protect energy facilities and critical infrastructure, according to Ukraine's defense minister. The talks are part of larger negotiations over a potential partial cease-fire to end three years of war between Russia and Ukraine.

The meeting is being held one day before U.S. and Russian delegations are scheduled to meet for talks on a 30-day truce, which would see both sides stop targeting each other's energy infrastructure. Russia stated that its March 24 meeting with U.S. officials will be focused on finding ways to preserve the safety of shipping in the Black Sea.

Both meetings are occurring after a series of discussions in Saudi Arabia, first between Russia and the United States and then later between Ukraine and the United States, which saw Kyiv accept a 30-day cease-fire proposal.

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News on March 23 that he was optimistic about the possibility of ending what has become Europe's deadliest military conflict since World War II.

"I feel that [Russian President Vladimir Putin] wants peace," Witkoff said.

"I think that you're going to see in Saudi Arabia on Monday some real progress, particularly as it affects a Black Sea cease-fire on ships between both countries. And from that, you'll naturally gravitate into a full-on shooting cease-fire."

(Had to pause here to gag at Witkoff gazing into Putin's soul through his eyes or whatever. Putin simply shot at other civilian targets instead of energy/infrastructure missions the past few days. Aside from that last energy target that didn't get called off in time, supposedly.)

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is leading the nation's delegation at the March 23 meeting, which allows Ukraine to act in a "very quick and very substantive" way, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

However, Ukrainian officials have said that they see the meeting in Riyadh as simply technical.

On March 21, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said the Ukrainian and U.S. delegations were set to "clarify the modalities, the nuances of possible different ceasefire regimes, how to monitor them, how to control them, in general, what is included in their scope."

Putin on March 18 agreed to President Donald Trump's plan for Russia and Ukraine to cease attacks on each other's energy infrastructures for 30 days, with Putin ordering the Russian military to stop them.

Both Russia and Ukraine have reported continued attacks from the other side, and Russia is continuing to slowly advance into eastern Ukraine.

On March 22, Trump said plans to end the war between Russia and Ukraine were "somewhat under control."

Ukrainian officials said on March 23 that a large-scale overnight Russian drone attack on Kyiv killed at least three, including a 5-year-old child. The strikes set high-rise apartment buildings on fire and damaged areas of the capital.

Also on March 23, Russian authorities said their air defenses had shot down 59 Ukrainian drones targeting the nation's southwestern areas. They say the attacks killed at least one person in Rostov.

The final few paragraphs after this are a brief history of the war and casualties so far.

"Somewhat under control" my ass. Wait, I need a clip from Kung Fu Hustle...

[Uberhaus]

At 5:01, the one on the right.  She only got better with age.

[MikeGER]

Kung Fu , Karate , Sword wielding ...? 

[Uberhaus]

My final and ultimate super forecast is that the contributions to this thread can only become more infantile.

[JasonPratt]

I am refusing to search this thread for "dongle". 

[Jarhead0331]

What does Z know that the rest of the World does not?

https://www.foxnews.com/world/zelenskyy-sensationally-predicts-putin-will-die-soon

[MikeGER]

and even if he is terminal ill and knows it, he will already have taken measures to bring a chosen successor to power who has the same mindset and posthum fulfill Putin's and his own dream of a great Russia (plus vassal states) in the borders of 1989 in the long run

so as if Russia (as Soviet Union) never has lost the Cold War and had to pay the price of losing that war

[Jarhead0331]

and even if he is terminal ill and knows it, he will already have taken measures to bring a chosen successor to power who has the same mindset and posthum fulfill Putin's and his own dream of a great Russia (plus vassal states) in the borders of 1989 in the long run

so as if Russia (as Soviet Union) never has lost the Cold War and had to pay the price of losing that war

Zelinsky seems to suggest that with the death of Putin, the war will end.

"He will die soon, that is a fact, and everything will be over," Zelenskyy told Eurovision News in Paris."

[JudgeDredd]

Probably wishful thinking. You never know....it's possible if he does go that any successor sees it as an opportunity to stop Russians dying for meters and maybe wants to be more part of the big world than their shrunken world at the moment (though I'm totally aware that could open up with the current administration).

Russian doctrine kind of reminds me of this...

[Crossroads]

The New York Times with a long article on US-Ukraine co-operation during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Gift link:

NYT: The Partnership - The Secret History of War in Ukraine

Related video:

https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000010059216/how-the-us-broke-its-own-rules-for-ukraine.html?smid=url-share

[JasonPratt]

Reported by the Epoch Times and Reuters today (also NBC News):

President Donald Trump said on March 30 that he would levy secondary tariffs of 25 to 50 percent on all Russian oil, which could start within a month, if he thinks the nation is hindering his efforts to end the war with Ukraine or tries to prevent a cease-fire.

In a Sunday phone interview with NBC News, of which the audio or full transcript hasn't yet been released, Trump said he was angry when Russian President Vladimir Putin called into question the credibility of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's leadership. Trump said he planned to speak with the Russian president this week.

The White House reposted the NBC report on the call. The Epoch Times has made a request for a transcript of the interview.

During his campaign last year, Trump repeatedly promised to stop what he has described as a "ridiculous" war in Ukraine, directing significant attention to the issue since assuming office in January.

He has also called for new elections in Ukraine and, at one point, referred to Zelenskyy, who was elected as president in 2019, as a dictator, criticizing Ukraine's imposition of martial law and suspension of elections during its defense against Russian invasion.

On Friday, Putin, who does not acknowledge Zelenskyy's presidency as legitimate, said Ukraine should be put under a form of temporary administration to grant new elections and the signing of key accords, which could effectively oust Zelenskyy from power.

"If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia's fault ... I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia," Trump reportedly told NBC News on Sunday.

"That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can't do business in the United States. There will be a 25 percent tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil."

The tariffs on Russian oil will be imposed within a month if no cease-fire deal is reached, Trump added, according to the NBC report.

He said he knows Putin is angry with him but noted he has a "very good relationship with [the Russian president]" and "anger dissipates quickly ... if he does the right thing."

Finland's President Alexander Stubb said on Sunday that he told Trump that the United States needs to set a deadline for brokering a cease-fire deal to end the war in Ukraine in order for it to succeed.

"April 20 would be a good time for a full cease-fire without any conditions ... Because a deadline is needed, because it is Easter, and because President Donald Trump will have been in office for three months," Stubb told Finnish reporters in London.

On Saturday, Stubb made a surprise visit to Trump in Florida, where the two leaders discussed ways of strengthening their nation's bilateral partnership while playing a round of golf, according to Stubb's office.

Trump: "NO ONE QUESTIONS THE CREDIBILITY OF Z'S LEADERSHIP BUT ME!"
Z and everyone else in the history of ever: 

Step one: throw out rakes
Step on: rakes
Step ?: ....profit?

[Uberhaus]

Germany's top General is pushing for the return of conscription.  https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdjyjlkewr2o

Germany has already missed a target of boosting its ranks by 20,000 soldiers, to 203,000, and lowering the average age from 34.

But Gen Breuer's ambitions are far greater.

He told us Germany needs an extra 100,000 troops to defend itself and Nato's eastern flank adequately - a total of 460,000, including reserves. So he insists a return to military service is "absolutely" necessary.  "You won't get this 100,000 without one or other model of conscription," the general said.

"We don't have to determine now what model brings them. For me it's only important that we get the soldiers in."

[JasonPratt]

Putin: 'Maybe we will not do peace fires. I mean cease fires. I mean on civilians. Infrastructure and energy sure, they're whacking us harder on that right now.'

Trump: 'You'd better stop droning civilians Vlad, looks bad for you. I want the killing to stop.'

Putin: 'Well, y'know, the Iranians, they send me these drones, and then I have to use them. Whaddya gonna do, y'know?' {shrugs} {smiles}

Trump: {zerg rushes 28% of alien bomber fleet to Diego Garcia} {with logistic support}

Putin: 'Please, Donald, we all know you won't--'

Trump: {picks up phone}{calls Tehran} No drones. No nukes. The end.' {click}

Joint Chief: 'Tru Carrier Strike Force ready. Vince Carrier Strike Force ready.'

Trump: {steeples fingers} 'exxxxcellent' {smiles}

Aya: '...uh... we'll... uh... we'll drone your Navy bases in... uh.....'

Trump: {cat smiles}

More detailed recap of developments over last few days (ignore clickbaity titles and gfx):