Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JudgeDredd]

I am not a fan of Ben Shapiro (for reasons I will not go into here) so I'm debating whether I want to give this a click.

It's a good interview.  Shapiro asks serious questions and lets Zelensky talk.  I'm not a fan of Shapiro either, but he does know when to scale it back and not go into steamroller debate mode.

Ok - I'll bite.

It would be refreshing to watch a sensical discussion with some real words and conversation instead of the wild ramblings I'm used to watching.

[Anguille]

I am not a fan of Ben Shapiro (for reasons I will not go into here) so I'm debating whether I want to give this a click.

I am not a fan either but i found this interesting.

[Crossroads]

For anything from Kremlin, it used to be: "Look at what they say, and what do they not say. Look at what they do, and what they do not. Observe, take a step back, conclude, while leaving your own wishful thinking aside (this is the difficult part). Seems a good practice to determine the Trump administration's intentions as well.

Reactions to Trump's campaign speech about ending the war in Ukraine in one day, among serious people, were like "yeah right, if he forces the Ukrainians to surrender." Well, here we are.

To quote the ever venerable Minna Alander:

The proposed deal sounds like the US exit from the negotiations that Rubio announced last week. The demands are likely not meant to be acceptable to Ukraine and there doesn't seem to be even a concept of a plan on how to implement and enforce the deal.

This way the Trump administration doesn't have to take any responsibility for the reality this deal would create. It could even be awkward for them if Ukraine agreed.

More important than the outlandish conditions of the deal is that it is the "final offer" and Trump has threatened to withdraw from the negotiations if both sides don't accept. So the likely outcome is that the US withdraws from the negotiations.

So that leaves the Ukrainians with themselves and support from elsewhere. Contrary to common oneliners, Europe has stepped up significantly in support; both monetary and military support exceeded that of the US already in 2024. But in an ideal world, this would have been a common effort, or at minimum, there would have been a plan for the US taking a step or three back.

I recall German Minister of Defence Pistorius quoted after the first meeting with Hegseth who said that the US is downsizing its presence in Europe and asked for US plans and timetable for this so that it could be handled in a serious manner. The US administration never answered.

And that is the thing—the breakneck speed of all this. It is impossible to handle this in a controlled manner.

Together with this—as Russian invasion of Ukraine is about global politics—there was the unprecedented scale of trade war launched at US allies. Russia was left out of these as well, as we know. (What is it that Russia has that no one else does that is so valuable? Cabbages? Potatoes? Can't be oil or LNG, as those compete with the US production.)

I am reading cynical interpretations that this all is a prelude for US annexation of Greenland while leaving Russia free to flex their muscles. Well, I guess we will find out about that at some stage, too.

Also, I am seeing a lot of articles and opinion pieces that Trump simply can't be trusted; there is no use in appeasing him. He will only come back for more, while determination and strength make him always walk back.

The Trump administration was quoted estimating that everyone would be 'kissing my a**' and pleading 'Please, Sir, make a deal. I'll do anything. I'll do anything, Sir,' quote unquote. I am not seeing that happening from what I am reading. At all.

Rather, everyone seems to be calling his cards and playing a waiting game at least until 2026 to see if he becomes a lame duck, having shot himself, the US, and everyone at their own proverbial legs; or if he does not back off from his ridiculous tariffs, having blown those legs to pieces instead. There are no winners in trade wars.

In the meanwhile, a summary from Politico makes for some astonishing reading. Anyone who would have predicted something like this six months ago would have been laughed off and then some. Have a read; I am not going to quote it. Unbelievable: Longtime US allies say they have ways to fight back against Trump, and they'll use them It is a long read, but I have seen bits and pieces that it puts together mentioned in several other reports and news items.

Note that my intention is not to do politics here but to share reactions and to make observations. 

Judge, as for your call for more and better arms from the UK and Europe, have a look at this Perun's April Fool's day video. Similar to what the Politico article says above, the building pieces are there, and now there seems to be the determination to do it as well, as it is everyone for themselves for the next few years at least.

[Crossroads]

^ Let us hope the peace negotiations can be salvaged with a more serious proposal.

https://www.reuters.com/world/documents-show-differences-over-us-peace-drive-ukraine-2025-04-25/

[JudgeDredd]

The Trump administration was quoted estimating that everyone would be 'kissing my a**' and pleading 'Please, Sir, make a deal. I'll do anything. I'll do anything, Sir,' quote unquote. I am not seeing that happening from what I am reading. At all.

Well, to my chagrin that appears to be exactly the UK's position. Rather embarrassed by it if I'm honest.

[JudgeDredd]

Putin announces a 3 day cease fire from 8th May.

There you go. Another "dangle" of the "We got this - don't worry...we want peace".

 

[Pete Dero]

Putin announces a 3 day cease fire from 8th May.

For 3 days they will stop doing things they claim they have never done.

[Pete Dero]

The Kremlin wants a ceasefire for those days because it can't suitably defend airspace from Ukrainian drones and they want a smooth 80th anniversary victory day parade.

[Uberhaus]

That would bring the war home to the Russians.

[nelmsm]

Guy I watch on YouTube suggested that Zelensky just announce that the parade was a legitimate military target and see if Putin wants to look weak and cancel or pull AA assets from all over Russia to defend it and then the Ukranians could strike all the places they just left undefended. 

[Uberhaus]

Here's some armchair quarterbacking, but attack before and after the ceasefire when the AAD is shifting.  But Ukraine is asking for a thirty day ceasefire which is a much smarter idea.   https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62j1848509o

[Crossroads]

The "minerals deal" has been signed, appearing to be a rather solid agreement for both sides, despite all the forks in the road along the way.

WSJ: Ukraine, U.S. Sign Economic Deal for Minerals (gift link)

Key Points

• The U.S. and Ukraine struck a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine's mineral wealth.
• The deal establishes a fund for Ukraine's reconstruction, with both nations contributing.
• Ukraine retains control over its minerals, using new licenses to pay into the fund.

[JudgeDredd]

I feel Z should've told the US they could have the minerals - in the Donbas and Crimea 

Kind of feels like "pimping out" defence for democracy - but whatever. I suppose that's happened before so...

[Jarhead0331]

I feel Z should've told the US they could have the minerals - in the Donbas and Crimea 

Kind of feels like "pimping out" defence for democracy - but whatever. I suppose that's happened before so...

Defense has rarely been about democracy. It is usually more about money, power, influence and special interest.

Beggars can't be choosers.

[JudgeDredd]

I feel like deep down I know this - but the perfect world I've built in my head is full of perfect people looking out for each other 

You know - I used to take the default view that people were good and I'd let them prove me wrong. I liked that me.

Then I met a guy at work who told me "I take the opposite view - I see everyone as a **** and let them change my mind...it stops me being disappointed"

Whilst I still think his view is sad and cynical, as I get older I realise there was some logic to his sad, cynical view.