Russia's War Against Ukraine

[UN Weapons Inspector]

sorry for double post

Good conversation about confidence in government and institutions, somehow  related to Locke v. Hobbes argument

[Crossroads]

[Uberhaus]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7zjy89304o

Two bridges have collapsed overnight in separate incidents in Russian regions bordering Ukraine, killing at least seven people and injuring dozens more.

State media said the collapses were being probed as "acts of terrorism".

I have a jaundiced eye in regards to it being "acts of terrorism."  Whoever or whatever the true causes, they'll end up being used to push for full mobilization which the Russians will need to continue into 2026.  From Dr. Jack Watling,  https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-prepares-russian-summer-offensive

Russian stockpiles of legacy Soviet equipment, from tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, to artillery pieces, will be running out between now and mid-autumn, such that Russia's ability to replace losses will be entirely dependent on what it can produce from scratch. At the same time, while Russia can fight another two campaign seasons with its current approach to recruitment, further offensive operations into 2026 will likely require further forced mobilisation, which is both politically and economically challenging.

[Crossroads]

If the Ukrainians actually managed to hit even one or two of the few A-50s available, in addition to heavy bombers, that is quite a hit on Russia's scarce AWACS capabilities.

Let us see what the satellite pictures will show tomorrow.

[Uberhaus]

If the Ukrainians actually managed to hit even one or two of the few A-50s available, in addition to heavy bombers, that is quite a hit on Russia's scarce AWACS capabilities.

Let us see what the satellite pictures will show tomorrow.

Brilliant innovations, like something out of a James Bond movie.
 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1ld7ppre9vo

The SBU sources said that among the hit Russian aircraft were strategic nuclear capable bombers called Tu-95 and Tu-22M3, as well as A-50 early warning warplanes.

They described the whole operation as "extremely complex logistically".

"The SBU first smuggled FPV drones into Russia, followed later by mobile wooden cabins. Once on Russian territory, the drones were hidden under the roofs of these cabins, which had been placed on cargo vehicles," the sources said.

"At the right moment, the roofs were remotely opened, and the drones took off to strike the Russian bombers."

[bobarossa]

Let us see what the satellite pictures will show tomorrow.

Probably a lot of blue tarps draped over airplanes. 

I expect some more russian generals will have early retirements.

[Crossroads]

PerunAU with a rather comprehensive background on the current recommencement of peace negotiations:

Russian War Goals & Ukraine Peace Talks - The Strategic Balance, Talks & A New Offensive?

Recommended watching, as always. He details the stated goals of both sides from the time the war started to the present day, noting that Russian demands have only hardened over time. He makes a point that Russia has gone from occupying 18.3% of Ukraine in early 2023 to occupying... 18.3% of Ukraine today.

He observes that it likely makes more sense not to discuss which side is winning the war, but to consider which side is losing less.

This is a good watch, in particular from the point of view of why accepting a bad peace deal does not make sense to Ukraine, and why they insist that guaranteeing their security must come first. Without security, the rest of the accords would hardly matter.

One anecdote he briefly mentions is how the Russian economy is so strongly tied to the war economy at the moment that perhaps they can no longer afford to either win or lose.

[Jarhead0331]

[JudgeDredd]

It is apparently back open already though

[FarAway Sooner]

Drones seem to have introduced the concept of assymetrical warfare to modern aerial warfare.  I do wonder how difficult it would be for the Chinese to replicate what the Ukrainians have pulled off, but done against American air force bases in Japan, Okinawa, the Philippines, Tinian, etc.?  Or even againsst USAF bases in North America?

I suspect that hardening such targets might be quite popular going forward.

[Jarhead0331]

Drones seem to have introduced the concept of assymetrical warfare to modern aerial warfare.  I do wonder how difficult it would be for the Chinese to replicate what the Ukrainians have pulled off, but done against American air force bases in Japan, Okinawa, the Philippines, Tinian, etc.?  Or even againsst USAF bases in North America?

I suspect that hardening such targets might be quite popular going forward.

Forget about airbases in Asia or abroad. China has bought thousands of acres of land near US air and military bases within the continental United States! We're very exposed to an attack like this.

[FarAway Sooner]

Drones seem to have introduced the concept of assymetrical warfare to modern aerial warfare.  I do wonder how difficult it would be for the Chinese to replicate what the Ukrainians have pulled off, but done against American air force bases in Japan, Okinawa, the Philippines, Tinian, etc.?  Or even againsst USAF bases in North America?

I suspect that hardening such targets might be quite popular going forward.

Forget about airbases in Asia or abroad. China has bought thousands of acres of land near US air and military bases within the continental United States! We're very exposed to an attack like this.

Yes we are.  Enforcement might be a bit easier within US borders, but it's not like we haven't already had tons and tons of illegal products (of different sorts) flowing through our country for the last 30 or 40 years.

Military Times Article:  Ukraine Drone Strikes a Wake-up Call for US Air Defense

[Crossroads]

... , or, what it means to everyone out there.

[Con]

Not sure if he is helping his cause with the porn glasses, foreign legion kepi and finger splint look.  But it is unique

... , or, what it means to everyone out there.

[Crossroads]

Not sure if he is helping his cause with the porn glasses, foreign legion kepi and finger splint look.  But it is unique