Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JudgeDredd]

But that's why they talk about it right? To make it "ok". Anything out of the ordinary that's talked about often enough becomes the norm.

And the destruction of a tactical nuke isn't the point - it would be the use that's the point. Not a nuke powerful enough or over some major city to bring about retaliation - but just to open that door wide enough to see where the land lies, so to speak.

Shit they might even just use it on dead ground to make the point - get the conversation going. "Look - we didn't blow up anywhere or cause serious damage - but we can and we DID use a nuke"

[Jarhead0331]

This may be wishful thinking on my part, but I think the Russian threat of using nukes is much more powerful than actually using them. Once the Russians actually deploy one, all bets will be off and NATO/US will not have much to lose by going to war. The threat on the other hand, may be more effective at reducing the West's willingness to risk escalation through increased support for Ukraine or direct intervention.

I truly hope the world's leadership with access to WMDs are rational actors at their core. Some might accuse Trump and Putin of being unpredictable or irrational, but look at some of those who held the nuclear cards during the Cold War. It is a miracle the world was not destroyed in a nuclear armageddon at several points during the 1960s - 1980s. There were some real cowboys and loose cannons running amuck, many of them Americans.

[Crossroads]

This may be wishful thinking on my part, but I think the Russian threat of using nukes is much more powerful than actually using them.
-snip-

This is as I see it, too. Trump called it exactly right: "I am reacting to your recklessly irresponsible language and deploying subs to new locations. You need to stop this now." (I bet those subs were already exactly where they were supposed to be, but that's not the point. Point was talking about them.)

While those talking TV heads should be just ignored, Delirium-Dimi Medvedev is a former PM and president of Russia and was obviously way, way out of line. Seems his phone is removed now when he takes one of his drinking spells.

[JudgeDredd]

I smell alot of BS.

I wonder if Zelenskyy is going to be ambushed again and humiliated in front of the whole world.

[Jarhead0331]

Nice analysis of the meeting and the state of the war.

TLDR; Ukraine is doomed and the faster it makes peace, the better off it will be. I don't agree with everything, but I think his conclusions on Ukraine are hard to dispute.

[JudgeDredd]

My sarcasm alaram was tripped there 

You'll have to forgive me for calling out what we've all witnessed for months now.

In my defence, I've never really sold myself as a famous world affairs commentator - more like just another arsehole on the internet with an opinion 

I am subscribed to Breaking Points. I didn't see this until I had given my in depth analysis.

Look - Trump got what he wanted there.

In the end, I'd like to add one more thing. I'd like to remind you that in 2022,during the last contact with the previous administration, I tried to convince my previous American colleague that the situation should not be brought to the point of no return when it would come to hostilities

Putin's statement, right at the beginning, was touting what Trump has been touting for years "If I was in power, this war would never have happened" - and this now gives Trump his out that it couldn't be resolved..."but this war would never have happened if I was in power"...so it's down to Europe and the Ukrainians.

Sure - I could go along with calling that fact - if we want to take the view that a sovereign nation would've been left to rot by the previous American administration when it was invaded by a foreign country because it wanted to use it's sovereign right to join any global organisation.

Look - I heard what Meersheimer said - and it is indeed fact. But it's fact because we are allowing it to be so. Putin is calling the shots - and I agree - with the way the West has behaved - in the past and now - he's in a position to.

But we've allowed him that luxruy.

It's not up to that wee prick (Putin, not Trump - just making clear people know who I'm talking about) whether Ukraine joins the World Health Organisation, the World Trade Organisation, European Union or NATO or any other global organisation.

I'm not sure what Mearsheimer expects? He stated that "we can't get it through our thick skulls that Russia sees NATO as an existential threat"...this is going back to allowing Russia to "dictate" world events. This allows Russia and Putin to see that Russia can dictate who can and cannot decide what to do with their own sovereign nation on the world stage.

When he said

...we have no cards to play

, I'm afraid I heard appeasement.
He also said

...and the alternative (to surrender of what's taken and all other Putin demands) is to continue fighting, and if you continue fighting, you're likely to lose probably half of your country

- again, talking from an appeasement perspective.

He seems to be ruling out that the war could be won if NATO/Europe actually put their backs into this to help Ukraine rather than their peacemeal attempts at help.

This

...what the Ukrainians should want to do...is to survive as a rump state, but not as a disfunctional rump state, and try to come up with some sort of modus vivendi with the Russians so that the Russians don't feel threatened so that they're not bent on wrecking your country. This is the best alternative for the Ukrainians at this point in time

First of all - boo fucking hoo - the Russians feel threatened. IT'S NOT THEIR CALL who joins fucking NATO. And as soon as you make it their call, you've taken your teeth out and went back to bed. Second of all, Maybe let the Ukrainians decide what's best for them? AND - support them if what they decide is they spill THEIR blood on THEIR soil to stop and agressive arsehole from stealing their land.

I would like to hear what Mr Mearsheimer would have had to say if Estonia or Latvia were invaded because "Russia fealt threatened having NATO on their border".

I wouldn't disagree with alot of what what said in that video IF I were an appeaser and IF I was removing full NATO or European support from the table and if I believed Putin should be able to call the shots unchallenged.

He mentioned 1918. Exactly. That's what should be happening in order to end the war in Ukraine. The only problem with his comparison between 1918 and now is he made Ukraine Germany. Russia is Germany...IF - and only if - the west gets behind Ukraine.

I would agree that the west has been "flirting" with assistance/security etc and this has just emboldened Putin. I would also say that I think this would not have happened if Putin had not been allowed to annex Crimea. That was a telegraphed message to Putin that we weren't interested.

But sure - I'll buy that. Lets sit back and see what(who)'s next.

I watched it. It basically didn't change my mind because I am not an appeaser. Nor am I a warmonger. But Russia has no right to dictate what other sovereign nations want to do with their sovereignty. And as soon as you flag to them that they do, you're fucked.

I said way back in this thread that of all the recent conflicts the west has been involved in, this is one of the very few that has my full support - as long as Ukraine nees and wants that support. Not because "it's the auld enemy". Not because any hatred of Putin or Russia. Simply because it was one of the few that was just and deserving of that support.

Ukraine will be thrown under the bus.

[Crossroads]

That was such a strange meeting. Why it even took place, from what I've read, is likely that this Witkoff character continues to be totally out of depth in reading the Russian strategic messaging from his meetings with them.

As for professor Mearsheimer, he is not alone in representing a school of thought where Russian security interests in Near Abroad are legitimate. Then, there are those, who do not agree to that. (As for his other commentary, well, JD commented on that, and I agree.)

General (ret) Mick Ryan's latest weekly Futura Doctrina blog provides another view to Putin's "root cause" for his brutal invasion of Ukraine:

Ukrainian and European leaders understand that the root causes of this conflict are not about territory or even Ukraine's membership of NATO. The true root cause of this conflict is Putin's terror that neighbouring countries might demonstrate alternative, democratic forms of government as an example for the Russian people.

Another point I disagree with professor Measheimer is his portayal of Russia winning the war, or winning in the battle field. Neither side is winning, the war has been mostly static and attritional for quite a while. There is an advantage to Russia with that as a larger nation, but their economy is not doing well either, and while Putin has been able to maintain a narrative of victorious war based on occupying a new little village or patch of land, that is not a meaniingful measure of this war.

Let us see how this develops further. It was most unfortunate to witness Putin being able to convince Trump a ceasefire is not the next step. Anyone having witnessed the Minsk peace negotiations for instance know Russia is master in ever moving the goalposts on any agreement talks, while continuing to wage war in their brutal manner. Ryan's blog entry discusses this as well, it is a good read.

[undercovergeek]

Is it that zelensky won't surrender anything been emboldened by the fact that he genuinely thinks the US are going to help?

Today they will, tomorrow they won't, last week they would, maybe not next month - I feel if Trump just said you're not getting anything from us, ever then he'd know what position he was in and we all know that that's fucked and he'd have a clearer picture of his options

I feel everytime he's summoned to the White House he thinks he's going to get given 1st armoured division and the airborne and then just gets told to surrender because he's fucked - just tell the man you're not interested

Like JD I think the meeting with trump is going to be 'I tried, youll have to surrender'

Then he should had fly to Brussels and be incorporated into NATO over tea and cucumber sandwiches that afternoon - problem solved

[Crossroads]

Is it that zelensky won't surrender anything been emboldened by the fact that he genuinely thinks the US are going to help?

Today they will, tomorrow they won't, last week they would, maybe not next month - I feel if Trump just said you're not getting anything from us, ever then he'd know what position he was in and we all know that that's fucked and he'd have a clearer picture of his options

I feel everytime he's summoned to the White House he thinks he's going to get given 1st armoured division and the airborne and then just gets told to surrender because he's fucked - just tell the man you're not interested

Like JD I think the meeting with trump is going to be 'I tried, youll have to surrender'

Then he should had fly to Brussels and be incorporated into NATO over tea and cucumber sandwiches that afternoon - problem solved

Maybe what keeps Ukraine from surrendering first and foremoest is that they know what would happen if they do. We've seen that.

As for military support, or lack of it, as available in Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker Ukraine has pretty much not received any US military support at all as of 2025. There is a high dependecy on US air-defence missiles in particular, Europeans are buying those from the US at the moment. Outside that, they are ramping up their own production, with many joint ventures inside Ukraine and also within Europe working to fulfill their needs.

Maybe there will be a ceasefire of a sorts, for instance with airstrikes on civilian infrastructure. Ukraine's been hitting Russia's oil infrastructure and refineries again with some effect. Anything more than that at the moment is maybe not as likely.

It is good that talks are continuing even with both sides quite far from each other. Peace treaties are never easy.

[JudgeDredd]

For all those people (and there are plenty) running around blaming Ukraine or the west or NATO - well, pretty much anyone but Putin...

I do not doubt that Europe looking invitingly to Ukraine rattled Putin.
I do not doubt that the west courting a possible NATO membership for Ukraine rattled Putin.

There. STOP. That's it.

This war is not the fault of NATO or Europe or the wider West. Putin has no say in what countries join NATO or any other organisation.

This war is Putins war. He started it in 2014 and the west did nothing. Bad idea. The war is Putins fault. The west only "started it" by ignoring the firing gun in 2014 - you can most certainly lay that fault at the feet of the west.

If we start saying he does have a say, then we are fucked.

And as UGC said - the in, out, in, out, shake it all about crack going on with the US and Europe needs to stop.

I saw Trump the other day pretty much bragging about how Europe are paying up for defence weapons for Ukraine so it's not costing the US tax payer anything...brilliant. Thanks for the help - and I say that with a heavy heart - not with bitterness.

Europe needs to step up - like seriously step up - and tell Zelenskyy we're here and go ALL IN. Troops on the ground, the lot.

And this right here...

Maybe what keeps Ukraine from surrendering first and foremoest is that they know what would happen if they do.

Imagine starting a war and then saying if you want us to stop attacking you, you have to get rid of all your weapons, don't have any security forces or bounderies here and stop looking for help from outside. Then you'll be safe.

Yeah - right.

Don't forget Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons and Europe (NATO? Can't remember) promised to protect their independence

[undercovergeek]

Don't forget Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons and Europe (NATO? Can't remember) promised to protect their independence

I googled - apparently Russia, the US and the UK agreed to protect Ukraine's independence if they gave them up - sigh

You know we only have to lend them one weapon really - it's got a trident on the side

[JudgeDredd]

And don't forget the Minsk Agreement of 2014.

The west has sent so many signals to Russia to go ahead, I can't believe it. We did the same in the run up to The Falklands Conflict...gave the Argentineans loads of signs that, although we weren't giving them up, we weren't going to staunchly defend them either. Then BOOM.

[Uberhaus]

Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free? 
Obviously, the calculations don't take into account loss or gain of advantage for either side.  It is illustrative that barring collapse of one side's will to fight the casualties will be brutal.  Hopefully, Putin will give up (he can't), retire and buy a farm or something.

[undercovergeek]

Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free? 
Obviously, the calculations don't take into account loss or gain of advantage for either side.  It is illustrative that barring collapse of one side's will to fight the casualties will be brutal.  Hopefully, Putin will give up (he can't), retire and buy a farm or something.

How many more Ukrainian casualties though

[JudgeDredd]

Man - because this meeting is going ahead today in the US, they're playing, for context, the last visit Z made to the White House.

So embarrassing and so cringeworthy to watch and a very, very sad day for world diplomacy.