Russia's War Against Ukraine

[undercovergeek]

Man - because this meeting is going ahead today in the US, they're playing, for context, the last visit Z made to the White House.

So embarrassing and so cringeworthy to watch and a very, very sad day for world diplomacy.

BBC says trump has said no nato allowed

I'm not sure how much of the Donbas is left standing or how many ukranians still consider it home but it must be tempting 

[JudgeDredd]

No NATO but strong defence agreement - but we know how those are upheld from 1994 and 2014

[Crossroads]

I'm not sure how much of the Donbas is left standing or how many ukranians still consider it home but it must be tempting 

If you mean how much of the Donbas is still in Ukrainian hands it is roughly some 30% I believe. From strategic point of view, the frontlines have not significantly moved for two years.

Putin very generously has offered that if Ukraine hands over the rest of Donetsk that he is unable to conquer, he will offer not to take over rest of other oblasts he is equally unable to conquer. "We just want Donbas" is the new "We just want Crimea".

Donetsk handover would truly be a Chamberlain 1938 moment, as the strong defensive belts would be lost and leave Ukraine with no defense for the inevitable next Russian attack.

[undercovergeek]

I'm not sure how much of the Donbas is left standing or how many ukranians still consider it home but it must be tempting 

If you mean how much of the Donbas is still in Ukrainian hands it is roughly some 30% I believe. From strategic point of view, the frontlines have not significantly moved for two years.

Putin very generously has offered that if Ukraine hands over the rest of Donetsk that he is unable to conquer, he will offer not to take over rest of other oblasts he is equally unable to conquer. "We just want Donbas" is the new "We just want Crimea".

Donetsk handover would truly be a Chamberlain 1938 moment, as the strong defensive belts would be lost and leave Ukraine with no defense for the inevitable next Russian attack.

Don't get me wrong I think it's deplorable

But I don't know how much more Ukraine can take - I see the 4 years and by then millions dead but what have Ukraine got left in the tank

But this is only based on my reading of the news which very recently has taken a Ukraine are losing everywhere turn whereas it used to be every Russian tank explosion was celebrated

[JudgeDredd]

Donetsk handover would truly be a Chamberlain 1938 moment, as the strong defensive belts would be lost and leave Ukraine with no defense for the inevitable next Russian attack.

I have stated a few times in this thread that the similarities to WWII are uncanny.

But I don't know how much more Ukraine can take - I see the 4 years and by then millions dead but what have Ukraine got left in the tank

I think the point should be - who are we to ask? Should we sell Ukraine soil off to the Russians?

It's surely down to Ukraine what they are willing to settle for and where they are willing to go and for how long. If they want to spill every ounce of blood they have in order to prevent that little fuck getting his grotty little hands on Ukraine, then that's up to them.

If they want to continue to fight off the hordes of Russians in order to tell them Ukraine isn't for sale, then as far as I'm concerned, it's the job of the free world and every country that believes in democracy to back them to the hilt.

You can take my taxes.

One last point though - had NATO/The West/Europe gone in full bore right at the very start - and BACKED Ukraine - as was promised in previous agreements, the territory Russia currently has would've been a dream - and they would likely be back where they started - and who knows - maybe the war would be over because, you know, Putin actually got a full on bloody nose and was ousted for gross fucking negligence.

All hypothetical of course - but point is, we should've stuck by our agreements in 2022 - not dealing with the consequences 3 or 4 years down the road.

So many Ukrainians have died - ALONE - because of the indecisiveness of the west.

[Anguille]

If the Russians get the entire thing, it's almost impossible to defend if the Russians change their mind because it's just plains after that. And it's obviously not possible to trust them.

[JudgeDredd]

If the Russians get the entire thing, it's almost impossible to defend when the Russians change their mind because it's just plains after that. And it's obviously not possible to trust them.

FTFY

[Anguille]

They are obviously happy

[Crossroads]

Quite extraordinary how all the European top leaders, on such short notice, organized and decided to join Zelenskyi to White House. And with quite solemn messaging to home audiences. I don't recall seeing anything like this taking place.

Here's hoping, basically that there are good news that the worst of outcomes does not come true.

[Crossroads]

Perhaps to provide a better answer as how much of Donbas does Russia occupy, here's a gift link to a recent Foreign Policy article of the very topic, with some highlights below:

FP: How Much of Ukraine Does Russia Control?

Today, Russia controls roughly one-fifth of Ukraine's territory, including Crimea—approximately 44,600 square miles. It occupies all but a sliver of Luhansk, and roughly 70 percent of Donetsk. Overall, Russia controls around 88 percent of the Donbas region.
...
Roughly one-third of the Donbas was already under the control of Moscow-backed forces when Russia invaded in 2022.

...

Despite recent advances near the eastern city of Pokrovsk, Russian forces are not capable of quickly seizing the rest of Donetsk by force, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which closely tracks the front line in Ukraine. "Russia could only rapidly seize all of Donetsk Oblast if Ukraine concedes to Putin's demand and withdraws from the remainder of the oblast," ISW said in a recent report.

...

In spite of the manpower and equipment advantages it has over Ukraine, the war has been extremely costly for Russia, and its forces are estimated to have suffered around 1 million casualties since the 2022 invasion. The British Ministry of Defense also recently said that it would take Russia roughly 4.4 years to fully conquer the remainder of the four Ukrainian territories Moscow illegally annexed three years ago.

The above was also concluded by the head of Finnish War College in a recent interview. He said that while he can't tell what tomorrow will bring, he just can't see how either side could manage to gather up a mechanized force big enough for operational success, as the modern battlefield provides absolutely no cover for massing of troops for tens of kilometers within the frontlines, at both sides.

The article concludes:

Still, it's also widely agreed that Ukraine is not capable of regaining control of territory that it's lost. Ukrainian forces have also largely been pushed out of Russia's Kursk region after seizing around 500 square miles of territory there in a surprise offensive last August.

In spite of the difficulties confronting Kyiv, former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker told Foreign Policy that "the battlefield situation and the relative power situation is not as dire as people make it out to be against Ukraine."

"Ukraine is doing very well at imposing lots and lots of Russian casualties and really not losing much of any territory," Volker said.

Volker added that Russia's economy is "in very bad shape and getting worse," emphasizing that Moscow has the "clock ticking with how much financial reserves they have." He also underscored that Ukraine is disrupting Moscow's military logistics as it increasingly demonstrates an ability to strike targets deep inside Russia.

"This is actually not going well for Putin," Volker said. "He doesn't ever want to admit that, but I think he knows it. And we should not be rushing this on the assumption that Ukraine's going to be defeated."

It is indeed rather depressing to see how the MSM continues to report of continuous and unstoppable Russian advance on frontlines. Russia has the initiative for sure, but that does not mean it is particularly winning the war in a decisive manner.

[Jarhead0331]

I'd like to hear what soldiers who have been on the front line are saying about the tactical and strategic situation, not the MSM, not the British Ministry of Defense or anyone else who may have an agenda. There will be no truth like that which will come straight from the trenches. Where are those opinions?

[Crossroads]

I'd like to hear what soldiers who have been on the front line are saying about the tactical and strategic situation, not the MSM, not the British Ministry of Defense or anyone else who may have an agenda. There will be no truth like that which will come straight from the trenches. Where are those opinions?

Funny enough, I was just thinking about like with Vietnam war, we got to learn about friendly casualties, we got to learn about friendly dirty deeds the times they happened, we got to learn how the discipline and morale got lower. But we had no idea of the far more numerous North Vietnamese casualties, war crimes, what not, as they never allowed any access to their frontlines. Just propaganda instead.

I guess it is fair to say that of the differences between the warring parties that Ukraine allows Western media with access to their frontlines. And Russia does not. Propaganda instead. So, for instance, from today's WaPo:

In Donbas, Ukrainians hold out as Russia besieges, bargains for their land

In the same room was Yura Zubkov, 44, a Ukrainian soldier from Kramatorsk who was wounded fighting in the nearby city of Chasiv Yar, which Russian forces recently took after more than a year of intense battle. "What, do you expect me to give my home to someone else?" he asked. "I was born here. I live here. I'll be fighting for this place. Trump needs to understand this would be like abandoning California and asking all U.S. forces to leave," he added.

There are many quotes from civilians as well.

There are many critical reports as well, I just thought to look to see for a fresh article. Some of the commanders are not very good at all, and actually, from the first days and months of the war, the feedback from foreign volunteers there was just terrible. Soviet style commanders and work ethics galore. This was from several sources, none of them positive. I understand it has gotten better but is far from perfect even now. Their movement to Brigades and Corps formations for instance seems to not have been a smooth process.

But then again, a fair comparison is that of the current Russian forcepool, not a Western formation or army, right?

[Crossroads]

The Guardian (UK) with a drone unit at the front.

Guardian: 'It would be a terrible loss': Ukrainian frontline troops sceptical of ceding land

[al_infierno]

Well, this is a nice change.  I wonder if Putin pissed him off?

[JudgeDredd]

Whilst I welcome the change in rhetoric, I have three main concerns about that post
1.
It's not changing his view on US support. AFAIK the US hasn't provided any assistance to Ukraine since he's been in power. That's what I read the other day. That report may have been talking about "free" assistance - not sure. I do know he's selling weapons and ammo to Europe to pass on.

2.
It seems he's setting Europe up for a fall - by throwing the curve ball their way instead of at Putin for a change - by suggesting Ukraine could be back to it's original borders "with the support of the European Union". He knows Europe isn't ready. And I personally do NOT trust him if Europe does "something" (down a fighter in their airspace or help Ukraine out with troops) that he would be there should Article 5 be called upon due to retaliation from Russia.

3.
He's gone way too far with his rhetoric. I want to see Ukraine back as Ukraine. Suggesting Ukraine could be back to it's borders isn't a terrible idea in my mind - but "...maybe go even further"!! WTAF!!! So after blaming Europe and NATO for Russia's attack, he now wants to put the message out to Russia that Ukraine "with European help" could go further? That's an insane statement.

I'm not making this political - I am dealing with his post and what I see the problems are with it. I'm not going to go onto anything else re his UN speech or anything else because that would be political.


I would agree with him on one thing - Europe buying oil from Russia is an absolute disgrace. They are personally funding the killing of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. You can't sugar coat that.