Russia's War Against Ukraine

[JasonPratt]

I don't think he meant the Uks should go further with NATO help, only that the Russian situation is so bad that they could. He has been pretty constant, including in that post, that he wants to work with both sides at peace, and has been angling (in his jerky sort of ways, for various definitions of "jerky") toward that goal: first get the killing to stop, then team up with both sides economically to supercharge them for the sake of their people.

...and for his greater glory, cough... but there are worse goals for greater glory. This is aside from whether Darth Putler even wants to be at peace without control of all Ukraine. I continue to observe, as for years: Putin really does see this as an existential crisis for himself; and also for Russia but consequently also for himself personally. I still don't see evidence that Trump recognizes this, and plenty of evidence that he's still trying to be diplomatic along different lines than assuaging Putin's existential crisis (in some way other than genociding Ukraine for reliable control of the whole region of course.)

[Crossroads]

I would agree with him on one thing - Europe buying oil from Russia is an absolute disgrace. They are personally funding the killing of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. You can't sugar coat that.

It's not Europe, it is Hungary and Slovakia.

To be fair - to some extent - for the European continent, there are many landlocked lands and areas where replacin Russian oil does not happen without a lot of time and effort. Yet, most everyone has managed to just that, especially these two, who have not even tried, really.

I am enjoying not a little schadenfreude as Ukraine is now destroying Russia's ability to export oil. Boom, sayis the oil pipe after and pumping station after another    

[JudgeDredd]

Apparently Ukraine had a very excellent manoeuvre against the Russians at Poprivka ( I think it was there) where the Azov Brigade had moved in and created "killing pockets" - sealed off a load of Russian units and are dismantling them.

The Russians have been sending reinforcements across, but they don't know where the Ukrainian forces are and in one report, they sent some artillery forward to help out... which approached and parked up next to Ukrainians which they thought were Russian forces

[Skoop]

I'd much rather have trump's rhetoric be where it is today than where it was with the zelenski oval office scene.  I had a feeling he'd come around and see the Putin / russians for what they are...Dbags.

[Crossroads]

"First gradually, then suddenly", Ernst Hemingway on how he ended in bankrupt. Maybe some of that in play here as well?

[Crossroads]

General Mick Ryan covering a lot of ground as a guest to BBC despite the simplistic video title.

Among many things he discusses, he's saying Russia's not able to win the war, the drone incursions etc are a sign of weakness rather than strength, that President Trump who's very good at sniffing political losers may have sniffed Putin as just that, that Ukrainian long range drones and missiles have been quite effective at both campaigns to both hitting Russian operational level assets as well as economic assets that finance their war, that Russia at the same time is very quickly adapting to this new type of warfare while sharing the intel with China, Norks, Iran, and that at the same time, war in Ukraine is not the future of war, but one manifestation on characteristics a future war has. (Now, read that all out loud without breathing in the middle...    )

Have a look:

[undercovergeek]

I would agree with him on one thing - Europe buying oil from Russia is an absolute disgrace. They are personally funding the killing of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. You can't sugar coat that.

It's not Europe, it is Hungary and Slovakia.

To be fair - to some extent - for the European continent, there are many landlocked lands and areas where replacin Russian oil does not happen without a lot of time and effort. Yet, most everyone has managed to just that, especially these two, who have not even tried, really.

I am enjoying not a little schadenfreude as Ukraine is now destroying Russia's ability to export oil. Boom, sayis the oil pipe after and pumping station after another    

It'd be nice to think all Europe could sit down - well at least the ones that aren't pro putin - and divvy up their oil supplies and reserves to make sure everyone's covered and then give Russia the giant finger

[Crossroads]

It'd be nice to think all Europe could sit down - well at least the ones that aren't pro putin - and divvy up their oil supplies and reserves to make sure everyone's covered and then give Russia the giant finger

To be fair, both Hungary and Slovakia, while having pro-Putin presidents, are also landlocked and mountainous or surrounded by mountains. That said, they haven't really made much effort to diversify their imports compared to other EU countries.

They both rely on natural gas and oil pipelines, and in that regard, the "kinetic sanctions" Ukraine is implementing might be a stronger motivator for change than anything EU leaders can impose.

[Pete Dero]

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1973376022151127176

Yaroslav Trofimov (Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal) :

Russian analysts say 38% of the country's oil refining capacity is currently offline, with 70% of that due to Ukrainian drone strikes and the rest to repairs/maintenance. No wonder there is no gasoline in many parts of Russia.

[Crossroads]

Rather good interview with former SACEUR Hodges on current state of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine. Very down to earth, admitting what he does not know, yet clear in his messaging.

[Crossroads]

Seems things are on a move again. This Edward Lucas column from last week was making the rounds, quite spot on if you ask me. You did not, but here goes anyway:

"Russia has not yet beaten Ukraine. But it has beaten us."

Here's the article link, not sure if it passes the paywall. I took the offer and subscribed for 6 months for 1 GBP.

[Crossroads]

A long (!) reporting on NYT regarding the US peace efforts between Russia and Ukraine over the past year.

A rather interesting read, let us save it here. More method to the madness that I for one had assumed.

NYT: The Separation: Inside the Unraveling U.S.-Ukraine Partnership

I read it rather neutral despite the somewhat click-baity title. Gift link, let me know if it does not work.

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, the march to robotic world domination continues apace with Ukraine deploying a successful tread-drone to hold a point of the eastern front line for... 45 days? Had to be some resupply there, but (supposedly) no Ukr soldier lost in that area.

To counter this tech leap, those geniuses in Moscow have deployed some semi-autonomous biotechnical personnel carrieries capable of high-speed maneuvering in rough terrain plus some degree of resupply on the field!

It's horses. Cavalry is back on the menu!

Uks quickly figured out how to spare the horses while 'neutralizing' the actual enemies. Alas, some equine casualties still occurred.

[JasonPratt]

"The Military Show" yesterday illustrated an analysis by ISW about Russian mil-bloggers claiming a crazy-massive Ukrainian counter-offensive has retaken embarrassing amounts of Donbas, which Ukraine probably hasn't retaken at all... or words to that effect!

Don't worry, it'll make sense later as the resolution of a typically wry "Darth Putin" move.

By analogy to Valentine's Day today: better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all.

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile RFU News gives today's tactical update of the situation that developed yesterday concerning the massive Ukrainian counter-offensive that never existed but was still super-effective!