News from Ukraine Conflict

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Putin only sees a military solution, and Obama seems to be bringing a speech to a gunfight. If we don't stop him now it will get much worse.

I agree with that. If you watch the clips of him talking in crowds sitting town hall style he is comparing to WWII saying in such a war the casualties will be in the 1000s and 10,000s.

Imagine the horror of all the paper shufflers when they realize their only skills are becoming useless to countries needing to make war materials.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Wait...the EU economy is crumbling again??

Unfortunately.

Someone around here used to cheer for a round of deflation to solve our woes. Hopefully he has learned the error of his ways.

The ECB (European Central Bank) actually made its lending rate negative: it is now paying banks to take money from it.

Bad news indeed.

The fear is that weak price pressures could ultimately trigger a dangerous deflationary spiral, where consumers and businesses put off spending amid expectations that prices will fall further still.

source: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/03/eurozone-inflation-fall-deflation-european-central-bank-interest-rate-cut

Who was asking for deflation? What did they think it would solve?

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Putin really meant to say 1 week.

I hadn't had my coffee yet. I thought he said 'I could take Kiev in 1 week, while riding shirtless on a bear.

Yeah, it's the round trip that would be 2 weeks.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

This is the "I look forward to torturing you." Look.

[jejo68]

Where do you get these high % in disrepair numbers? It seems very unlikely that they would not have fixed that before starting a war.

First of, of the 15500 tanks in the russian arsenal only around 2600 is operational, rest is kept in reserve in a more or less servicable state. Second most of the russian tanks that actually do Work consist of old T72 tanks which, well  frankly, were obsolete even during the first gulf war.
Second, as for the russian fleet in Sevastopol, well if you know anything about the russian navy then you would know 2 Things. First the ships that are indeed still operational get alot less time at sea then the equivalent Nato ships, and 2 most of their ships are stripped Down hulls with a skeleton crew just so you can pay the sailors and artificially inflate the size of the navy. Unfortunately I dont have access to Janes any more but they have had a few reports on this.
There airforce is even worse off, as alot of the pilots are just barely making the minimum flying time required to maintain a mediocrum capability. In fact one of the squadrons tasked with guarding moscva used to hire out the planes to civilians just to give the pilots some airtime.
Personel wise, well the army is fairly big with 750k enlisted personel, but first of they have to cover a vast territory against neighbours that doesnt exactly want to send christmass presents to russia (unless we talk tactical nukes) and secondly they are really poorly trained, poorly equipt and they Arent exactly highly motivated on top.

As for how I know that, well Janes, CIA factbook etc are good for getting hard data, and I since my exwife is russian with family ties to both the former KGB and army intelligence, I have talked to some interesting people.
But most of all this is not some big secret, the info is out there on the scary WWW for the picking.

Lastly look at how big a clusterfuck Gorgia and Chetchnya was, is that the sign of a well tuned, highly trained army ?

[mirth]

Putin really meant to say 1 week.

I hadn't had my coffee yet. I thought he said 'I could take Kiev in 1 week, while riding shirtless on a bear.

Yeah, it's the round trip that would be 2 weeks.

He might be able to take Kiev in 1-2 weeks, but have fun holding it and the rest of the Ukraine. I doubt the Ukrainians would take kindly to yet another Russian occupation. And if a large portion of the Russian army found itself tied down in Ukraine, how long would it be before Chechnya and other disgruntled regions flare up again?

[LongBlade]

Wait...the EU economy is crumbling again??

Unfortunately.

Someone around here used to cheer for a round of deflation to solve our woes. Hopefully he has learned the error of his ways.

The ECB (European Central Bank) actually made its lending rate negative: it is now paying banks to take money from it.

Bad news indeed.

The fear is that weak price pressures could ultimately trigger a dangerous deflationary spiral, where consumers and businesses put off spending amid expectations that prices will fall further still.

source: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/03/eurozone-inflation-fall-deflation-european-central-bank-interest-rate-cut

Who was asking for deflation? What did they think it would solve?

The solution was to make things more affordable.

As to who? We'll see if the guilty comes forward on his own.

[JasonPratt]

We have certainly seen recently what a few hundred motivated troops can do against 50,000 dismal troops equipped with modern fighting gear... 

And as noted, Russia doesn't have much modern fighting gear, much less in good repair and ready to go. Their Hinds, and maybe a ton of arty, could be the best things they have going for them.

Would "Huns" "invading" the Ukraine again get them sufficiently motivated to win such a fight? It might motivate them to try, but more likely it would motivate them to tac-nuke the areas. Doubtless much of that would depend on whether Germany tries a Petersburg-to-Moscow-to-Caucasus push again, which logistically would be impossible for them to even try.

On the other hand, just how much could Germany commit to a Ukrainian defense counterthrust while making sure Russian troops on other nearby borders don't attempt a strategic flank? Russia doubtless has whatever ubertruppen it has deployed on its western front(s) already, but even mouth-breathing idiots could cause serious problems if generally unopposed. That would proportionately cut down Germany's ability to lend aid to Kiev et al.

[Gusington]

After much study,  I have concluded that Putin just does not give a f@ck about what Obama, Merkel or the West in general think or threaten. He sees a paper tiger and a potential threat in NATO at the same time, in his backyard. Granting Ukraine membership in NATO now would be ridiculous. The Russian mission here is to rebuild a new USSR. The West can prepare for a conflict, but not much beyond that. What the West should try really hard to prevent is a coziness between Russia and China.

[Con]

I agree

Putin was always going to want to stir up trouble to prevent the Ukraine from leaning more left towards the West.  It was never in the cards that there was going to be direct NATO/US involvement there so I see that more as a fact than a bluff.  However he is playing a long-term losing hand by giving NATO a new purpose, re invigorating Western resolve on defense spending, having his only source of money (oil and gas) drop alarmingly as the West will switch to alternatives.  He is running out of time and runway so hi best bet is to be bellicose to see what he can grab before he restarts the charm offensive to try and win back the Euros and dollars his economy needs.

Con

[endfire79]

What the West should try really hard to prevent is a coziness between Russia and China.

I agree.

[Centurion40]

Ceasefire.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/03/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

[GDS_Starfury]

But is it a gaza ceasefire?

[bayonetbrant]

Ceasefire.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/03/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Or "reloading"  ;)

[Martok]

But is it a gaza ceasefire?

Ceasefire.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/03/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Or "reloading"  ;)

Yeah, that's more what I'm thinking.  This is merely a brief pause, nothing more.