Israel vs Iran kicks off 6-12-25 (CST)

[JasonPratt]

Friday the 13th in Iran is getting off to a bad start.

For Iran.

Netanyahu announced Operation Rising Lion is dropping ordnance on Iran's nuclear facilities (and maybe related military targets) as of today. Seven minutes ago, Iranian news reported that the commander of The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Gen. Hossein Salami, has probably been killed already.

PM Net says he expects the operation will last 4 to 5 days, but will last as long as it takes to eliminate all nuclear activities. By Israel's reckoning, Iran had already produced enough weapons-grade uranium to make at least nine nuclear weapons within days, fifteen within weeks.

Currently US does not seem to be actively helping, but Israel says they're coordinating closely with the US, which sounds like live intel sharing -- maybe spotters on the ground, too.

Youtube posted this video about an hour ago, but we can be sure the op has been going rather longer already. (Update about 2.5 hours at the time of this posting.)

Explosions have been heard at nuclear facilities in Fordow and Natanz

[JasonPratt]

Israel now says they were aiming at all the Iranian military leadership, and have probably got them all. Pretty much everything and everyone connected with making and delivering nuclear weapons is on the target board, and a broad swath has already been targeted.

Quick update: in his speech Netanyahu seemed to downplay the threat more than I've seen reported elsewhere, with active weapons being available no more than a year out but possibly only a few months. This might be harmonized in that "devices" might be available in a few days, but not deployable for some time more. As an IDF official said (if I recall correctly), however, from this point forward we could only know less about the situation not more, meaning it would be easy to lose track of the devices once created.

[JasonPratt]

IDF spokesperson said Israel had intelligence that Iran was about to distract from its device production by launching thousands of conventional missiles (the largest wave yet) while sending land attacks at all borders of Israel from proxy fighters (using trucks apparently), and simultaneously destabilizing all of Israel's border states.

[FarAway Sooner]

I heard some outside expert (who was otherwise pretty harsh about Iranian conduct) recently state that Iran might already have (or soon have) sufficient masses of weapons-grade uranium to produce approximately nine nuclear devices, but that having sufficient masses of weapons-grade uranium wasn't sufficient, as the detonator technology can be much harder to get right than the uranium refining.

Obviously, without the ability to cite a source, you can take that as hearsay.  But it's an important distinction to listen to as we move forward with this.

I'm hardly sympathetic to the Iranians in this conflict.  But after some of the apparent inaccuracies I've seen come out of the Israeli government in the last year, I'm not exactly taking everything that the IDF says as gospel at this stage either.

[JasonPratt]

That's fair. That would help harmonize the various sources I've heard so far; I was thinking of delivery options, but right the detonation tech has to be super precise. (Tom Clancy's Sum of All Fears being a somewhat relevant fictional example off the top of my head.)

[JasonPratt]

The Enforcer and his crew are posting up news and video links on his Google map, which I'll link here:

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?entry=yt&mid=1DLKV9c6AOpQHU9-oxwO0H_p_Hxw70B8&ll=49.518304272668885%2C-0.6971817500000128&z=3

[JasonPratt]

Khomeni was still alive (apparently) a few minutes ago with a news release vowing world-changing vengeance on Israel etc. That would presumably include the (supposed) knock-on-all-doors ground invasion by truck-borne troops from his proxies near Israel?

[JasonPratt]

I was a bit delayed, and will have to unplug for local storms, but "OpenSourceIntel" (on Twitter if I understand correctly) was reporting about 12 minutes ago that the first Iranian missile was approaching Israel's border. No idea what happened to it yet, or anything following afterward.

[Jarhead0331]

I'm hardly sympathetic to the Iranians in this conflict.  But after some of the apparent inaccuracies I've seen come out of the Israeli government in the last year, I'm not exactly taking everything that the IDF says as gospel at this stage either.

What other motivation could Israel possibly have other than having no choice?

[Redwolf]

Finally. The suspense was killing me.

[Jarhead0331]

The latest from Mooch.

[Jarhead0331]

...and from McBeth.

[Redwolf]

I find the stories about prepositioning drones and other weapons inside Iran fascinating.

Can't wait for the autobiographies.

Especially in light of Ukraine obviously having done the same thing.

[W8taminute]

What other motivation could Israel possibly have other than having no choice?

The leadership in Iran (or Persia) has publicly stated for years that their goal is the utter destruction of Israel.  A nuclear armed Iran cannot be tolerated. (From Israel's point of view)

For years Israel has been trying to warn the world community of the dangers of Iran having nuclear weapons but no one seems to care.  Or if they are concerned they ignore it because of some unexplained anti-Israel feelings. 

The following is from a Google AI search regarding the Jeremiah 49 prophecy:

Jeremiah 49 contains prophecies against several nations, including Ammon, Edom, Damascus, Kedar and Hazor, and Elam. These prophecies foretell the downfall of these nations due to their sins and defiance against God.
Here's a breakdown of the prophecies in Jeremiah 49:

1. Against Ammon (Jeremiah 49:1-6):
God questions the Ammonites about their land-grabbing practices against Israel.
He prophesies that Rabbah, the capital of Ammon, will be destroyed and become a desolate heap, and the Ammonites will be driven out.
God promises that Israel will regain possession of the land taken by the Ammonites.

2. Against Edom (Jeremiah 49:7-22):
God expresses his anger against Edom for their pride and arrogance, even though they lived in a high mountain fortress.
He foretells the calamity of Edom, promising their downfall and destruction.
The prophecy includes imagery of Edom being an object of horror and scorn, and its cities being left desolate.

3. Against Damascus (Jeremiah 49:23-27):
God declares that Damascus will be devastated, its young men will fall, and its warriors will be silenced.
He prophesies the destruction of the city's walls and the palaces of Ben-hadad.

4. Against Kedar and Hazor (Jeremiah 49:28-33):
These tribes of the eastern desert are foretold to be attacked by Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon and scattered to the four winds.
Their territory will become a wasteland, and only jackals and wild animals will inhabit it.

5. Against Elam (Jeremiah 49:34-39):
God declares that he will break the bow of Elam, their main weapon of strength.
He will bring disaster upon them and scatter their people.
However, the prophecy also includes a promise of restoration and the return of Elam's captives.

In essence, Jeremiah 49 highlights God's justice and his ultimate control over nations, both in their destruction and in their potential restoration. The prophecies serve as a warning to those who defy God and as a promise of hope for those who are faithful.

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The text highlighted in blue is of particular interest to me as I believe we are beginning to witness the start of this prophecy. 

I'm not saying "thus sayeth the Lord" but I sure do find these headlines in the news today as fascinating.

Note: Elam is the ancient name for a region in Persia or modern day Iran.  The Busheir nuclear plant is located in Elam.

[JasonPratt]

My 'favorite' (for want of a better word) part of yesterday's action, was the video posted by Iranian officials showing Israeli jets (more or less) ground-attacking an industrial area with no apparent damage and being shot out of the sky in ARMA III. Cropped to look like a cell-phone video of course.

I'll try to remember to post a link to that later. It was a grimly amusing attempt at propaganda.