Getting Closer

[Smuckatelli]

I'm thinking we will hit $5 a gallon within a month. Maybe $5.75-$6.00 a gallon by the summer. Not European level yet but getting closer...


"Somehow we have to figure out how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe," Mr. Chu, who directs the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal in September.

But Mr. Obama has dismissed the idea of boosting the federal gasoline tax, a move energy experts say could be the single most effective step to promote alternative energies and temper demand. Mr. Obama said Sunday that a heightened gas tax would be a "mistake" because it would put "additional burdens on American families right now."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122904040307499791.html

[Windigo]

Not sure if it will hit those levels so quickly Paul. But once you pass psycological barriers (up here it was $1/L) the companies are loath to let them go down again even if the costs associated with production and delivery show that it could. Refiner margins are staying higher than historical averages.

All I can say is market reality has to kick us in the ass once in a while to show us that politics/politicians very seldom solve problems.

Last bit... with China and India buying more oil of course the price will go up as oil supply can't go up to stabilize prices. So we all pay more for the same commodity. Whether the oil supply will increase and bring price relief ... *shrug* IMO unlikely. I think its the big ugly new reality.

On the plus side natural gas prices are at a big low - probably for the next 2-7 years. If you could convert your vehicle(s) to natural gas you'd be enjoying cheap motoring ... and since it burns cleaner than gasoline you'd save money on maintenence.

[Smuckatelli]

Not sure if it will hit those levels so quickly Paul.

I'm not too sure either, but, during the past 7 days gas has gone up 13 cents per gallon in Stafford VA. The Republicains are going to use the President's refusal to pipe the gas down here from you guys as a reason for the price increase. Market volatility doesn't make an easy to swallow sound bit from the media. Tack on the article from 2008 and I don't know how it will be explained away.

[Windigo]

well the interesting bit about the pipeline is that it was a done deal and would have been a rubber stamp from Obama until Nebraskan landowners decided they wanted more money from the pipeline company and the bitching with the pipeline company brought it up to national attention/news where the greens got a hold of it ... and the Republicans turned it into a national political football - all the while delaying a 1.3 million barrel a day oil pipeline of secure oil...

no oil tankers, no international politics.... just oil from your buds to the north....

if I needed any more proof that you fuckers are crazy with your bipartisan bitch session political drama ... this was it....

[son_of_montfort]

We are pretty sure that the Hoosier state will hit $4.00 a gallon by summer. That is pretty unheard of in this part of the country (where you have to drive long distances to go anywhere).

Now, I'm a bit paranoid. Given that this is an election year and that most oil companies have conservative owners (or owners, like the Koch family, that literally bankroll the President's opposition), I can't help but think there is some politics in this. If the gas hits that high, people will blame the administration first and the companies later.

Like I said, I'm paranoid. And I'm not really talking politics, just conspiracy theory!  ;D

[Windigo]

If the gas hits that high, people will blame the administration first and the companies later.

Like I said, I'm paranoid. And I'm not really talking politics, just conspiracy theory!  ;D

blaming politicians for high prices??????????????  I thought you guys were free marketers....  you know who/what oil companies is/are responsible for setting gasoline prices right??  ..... 

*head shake*

Like WTF? - even if the delay was going to impact prices, you could easily show that the pipeline wasn't going to get completed for a least a year so whats happening now is not Obama's fault...

this is pathetic.... IS THIS REALLY A SELL DOWN THERE????


BTW if Obama wanted to he could release some of the strategic reserve and reduce oil prices

[MikeGER]

in Germany at the moment in EuroCent / l  ...and how the 1.64€/l peek  is summing up (was explained in our news) 

54 (crude Oil price) 
17 (Shell, ARAL, etc... for transport, refinery, distributing and gain)
1   (fillingstation owners gain)
92 (f#*&%ing  T A X )

but even more crasy are the price jumps across a day now! ... in the past years its was: lowest on Mondays around 10am and slowly rising to the weekend. Nowadays its f#*& ing  'Las Vegas gamble' ... i pass my filling station ... its 1.53 for fuel-oil .. a few hours later its 1.42 ...then a few hours later 1.52 again...
10 Cent jumps going back and for, sometimes with steps inbetween (but not necessarily), and several times a day.
  Insane!
     

[bob48]

In the uk, its the approx equiv of $9.5 per imp gallon (£1.33 per litre)

:-((

[LongBlade]

blaming politicians for high prices??????????????  I thought you guys were free marketers....  you know who/what oil companies is/are responsible for setting gasoline prices right??  ..... 

*head shake*

Like WTF? - even if the delay was going to impact prices, you could easily show that the pipeline wasn't going to get completed for a least a year so whats happening now is not Obama's fault...

Wrong.

After the BP oil spill the administration locked down offshore drilling and has only slightly released a hold on it. That has a direct impact on the price of fuel, and is, indeed, an impediment to a free market.

Was watching the news the other day and they had an expert on there discussing the vast number of fuel blends regulated by the government. His take was that if we simply required a single fuel blend that the price of gas would fall by $1.00/gallon.[/quote]

BTW if Obama wanted to he could release some of the strategic reserve and reduce oil prices

Yes he could. Your point?

[Windigo]

blaming politicians for high prices??????????????  I thought you guys were free marketers....  you know who/what oil companies is/are responsible for setting gasoline prices right??  ..... 

*head shake*

Like WTF? - even if the delay was going to impact prices, you could easily show that the pipeline wasn't going to get completed for a least a year so whats happening now is not Obama's fault...

Wrong.

After the BP oil spill the administration locked down offshore drilling and has only slightly released a hold on it. That has a direct impact on the price of fuel, and is, indeed, an impediment to a free market.

Was watching the news the other day and they had an expert on there discussing the vast number of fuel blends regulated by the government. His take was that if we simply required a single fuel blend that the price of gas would fall by $1.00/gallon.

BTW if Obama wanted to he could release some of the strategic reserve and reduce oil prices

Yes he could. Your point?
[/quote]

a buck a gallon???? wow!!!!   he'd really need to prove a 33% price surcharge on that... I doubt he could because of the way refineries work - they don't shut down except in case of maintenence and most blends are blends after the refining process when things are added to the base stock

and as most analysts will tell you, there is no oil supply problem... its a fear/anxiety problem driven by geo-politics and speculators

[LongBlade]

and as most analysts will tell you, there is no oil supply problem... its a fear/anxiety problem driven by geo-politics and speculators

There have been no new refineries built in the US for decades - due to overregulation.

And fear/anxiety might be focused on Iran ATM but turning down the XL pipeline doesn't show some kind of neglect on the part of the admin? You may disagree, but there has been a pattern of this administration to favor increasing energy prices. Somewhere in that fear/anxiety formula is some deliberate effort cause by Obama et al.

[Windigo]

and as most analysts will tell you, there is no oil supply problem... its a fear/anxiety problem driven by geo-politics and speculators

There have been no new refineries built in the US for decades - due to overregulation.

And fear/anxiety might be focused on Iran ATM but turning down the XL pipeline doesn't show some kind of neglect on the part of the admin? You may disagree, but there has been a pattern of this administration to favor increasing energy prices. Somewhere in that fear/anxiety formula is some deliberate effort cause by Obama et al.

someone posted a link to an article about this ... dangerous political move, but one to be admired since it is driven by science and future/end state thinking

[LongBlade]

It would be easy to trip into Glenn Beck levels of paranoia about Obama wanted to overthrow the system. I don't think that's what he really wants, even if he doesn't understand how his actions could take us there.

My guess is that the natural process will take care of itself. If we hit $5/gallon prices by summer, voters will be in a dark mood, even if prices fall by November. We have quotes of Obama predicting his policies are intended to raise the prices of energy (specifically aimed at Coal, but easily enough turned to oil). Secretary Chu is also on record as saying he wanted oil prices to rise.

We haven't seen the political ads come out yet because it's still a primary. Expect, however, some very damaging ads to emerge once the GOP settles on a candidate. Polls look rosy now, but my gut tells me there is a very long list of failed accomplishments and Pyrrhic successes that, when shown to the votes, is likely to erode support for Obama in a way that will result in a landslide against him. 

[Windigo]

It would be easy to trip into Glenn Beck levels of paranoia about Obama wanted to overthrow the system. I don't think that's what he really wants, even if he doesn't understand how his actions could take us there.

My guess is that the natural process will take care of itself. If we hit $5/gallon prices by summer, voters will be in a dark mood, even if prices fall by November. We have quotes of Obama predicting his policies are intended to raise the prices of energy (specifically aimed at Coal, but easily enough turned to oil). Secretary Chu is also on record as saying he wanted oil prices to rise.

We haven't seen the political ads come out yet because it's still a primary. Expect, however, some very damaging ads to emerge once the GOP settles on a candidate. Polls look rosy now, but my gut tells me there is a very long list of failed accomplishments and Pyrrhic successes that, when shown to the votes, is likely to erode support for Obama in a way that will result in a landslide against him.

you guys are in dire need of a 10 year rule by technocrats - with a benevolent army behind them to get people working .... or not

and hell no.... By the time the election comes around ol' whats his name will be running for election in a clearly recovering economy

[LongBlade]

By the time the election comes around ol' whats his name will be running for election in a clearly recovering economy

Let's hope so. But $5/gallon gas is going to hit a lot of people quite hard. I'm not quite as confident.