North Korea: When Internet Trolls Get Nukes

[LongBlade]

The crazy people with light nuclear weapons just told the US that they've authorized their military to use nukes against the US.

Saw that.

It remains to be seen whether this is a continuation of the crazy-like-a-fox game they've always played or if they're going off the deep end.

My guess is that 20-something wannabe dictator is doing everything he can to pretend he knows what he's doing.

[Longdan]

Maybe somebody can dig up his D+D buddies from that expensive private school and find out his weaknesses.
Too bad he has only got millions of starving people.  If he had oil a war against him would pay for itself.
(Except for the part where RoK gets collateralled into rubble.  Lots of work for Haliburton there to be had.  If only there was the right VP.)

[GDS_Starfury]

well we now have 2 ABM destroyers in the area, a THAAD system on its way to Guam and an X-band radar platform enroute as well as a squadron of F-22's and a squadron of F-15's.

who wants to play?

[Longdan]

It is more important if Japan, China and South Korea want to play and what they want to wager.

[LongBlade]

It is more important if Japan, China and South Korea want to play and what they want to wager.

Actually, more important is whether the Norks want to play and wager. If they bring their A game then the rest will get dragged along for the ride regardless.

[MikeGER]

i am sure China has enuf HUMINT in NK to know exactly what nuke-prototypes in which state of mounting are where ... They are already pissed that the USA got a fine excuse to bring the latest toys infront of their doorsteps and surely will keep them installed even when the NK-scenario has cooled down.

so China will either discipline little Kimi soon, or find a way to replace him with a better behaving marionette from NK, before even more damage is done to their regional strategic interests.

of course they can let Kim running wild a little more, ...a very heavy border incident, let SK and USA retaliate, with a  decapitation strike against Kim and his 200 profiteers and throwing NK's C3I-structure in ruins, and then march into NK from the North 'to restore peace' themself (after the US aircampaign ) ...and later install their NK sockpuppet.
but the world economical fallout of only 1 days of the conflict going hot leading to turmoil at the world stock exchanges, raw-material markets, and curency-markets may be a price/risk to high for China to let it happen the hot way           

[LongBlade]

The Chinese won't miss the opportunity to gather ELINT when we deploy our toys. That's the downside to being that close to the problem.

[Barthheart]

I agree with MikeGER, the Chinese don't want or need this burning bag of dog poo on their doorstep. They have a lot of other irons in the fire right now and Lil Kim is making it harder for the Chinese to get done what they want to.
I'd expect there's a lot of pressure coming from China to smarten up or get smacked pretty hard.

[LongBlade]

I agree with MikeGER, the Chinese don't want or need this burning bag of dog poo on their doorstep. They have a lot of other irons in the fire right now and Lil Kim is making it harder for the Chinese to get done what they want to.
I'd expect there's a lot of pressure coming from China to smarten up or get smacked pretty hard.

If you're right I guess we're about to see how tight a leash China really has on things there. My guess is that while they have considerable influence, it isn't 100%.

[Barthheart]

I just can't see how they would not be appling a lot of pressure to smarten up the Norks. None of this helps China in anyway.... unless they are the ones who want to start the fight....

Hmmmm.... use proxy nation to start flinging nukes at US interests, US responds by bringing all their toys close to China, China nukes the lot and start world take over.... might make a good movie...

I still don't see it. China is doing to well at beating the West through economics (or at least it was) to bother with a shooting war.

[LongBlade]

If...

If...

If...

The US can't really afford another conflict right now.

If we assume that the Cloward-Piven model of economic collapse has merit, there could be a move on the part of the Chinese to stress our finances to the point where we simply cannot support ourselves.

A fight on the Korean peninsula has prevailing winds that ensure any fallout move away from China and toward its competitors.

I'm not saying China is ready to provoke an armed conflict between the US and the Norks - but there may be hard line elements within China who might advocate such a scenario.

The US still has financial room to move. A conflict that stressed us that much could actually provoke some real spending reform in our government as we are forced to get smart about how we spend money in the midst of real crisis.

I'm not saying it would be a good thing, but it might actually have some unintended consequences that the Chinese hard liners haven't factored into their thinking.

[Barthheart]

Agreed... lots of questions... and only a nut bar has the answers..... :P

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

"The current question was not whether, but when a war would break out on the peninsula," because of the "increasing threat from the United States", China's state news agency Xinhua quoted the North's Foreign Ministry as saying.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/05/us-korea-north-idUSBRE93408020130405

It sounds to me like China is the puppetmaster that does not like how good the SK competition is. The only ones that will benefit from damage to Seoul is Chinese companies.

[eyebiter]

Last thing China wants is war with the USA, we owe them too much money.  After all if China were to intervene in a Second Korean War, we could claim afterward they owed us about 5 trillion in war reparations.  Just enough to eliminate our entire foreign debt to them in one fell swoop.

If anything, I'd be interested to see what happens when the Chinese leadership finally lost patience with North Korea.

Notice the Chinese are starting to mobilize forces along their border with North Korea.  Most likely an effort to stem the expected tide of refugees in case war breaks out with South Korea.

What if the Chinese moved in PLA troops to occupy North Korea?  Something along the lines of the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan with the goal to stabilize the situation and maintain order.  Kim might stay in power as a figurehead, but the Chinese would be running the show.  How would the US and South Korea react to such an incursion, with condemnation or relief?

[Longdan]

What is in our folk knowledge about a land war in Asia?  How have past adventures in Asia turned out?
What could possibly go wrong this time?  Thinking it is going to be different is thinking like a drunk.
Believe me.  I am an expert on this.  Being a drunk is one of the few talents I have mastered.